Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 201011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
611 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Quiet weather is expected across the area for the next few days with
high pressure traversing the area. Below freezing temperatures are
expected early this morning, and lows tonight could again be in the
mid 30s. After that, though, should see a warm up on the lows. Dry
conditions are expected for most of the area through at least
Monday, but the pattern looks more active come midweek.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

A freeze warning will continue until 9 am this morning with
temperatures near/below freezing across most of the forecast area at
3 am. Skies should remain clear through the day under the influence
of high pressure. This will allow for ample sunshine and warming to
occur, so that even though the day will start out below freezing
highs should climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s. High confidence
in dry conditions.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...

Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

With high pressure still over the area, should see mostly clear
skies tonight. This will again allow temperatures to drop off pretty
rapidly. At this time it looks like they should stay above freezing.
However, with fairly light winds expected and lows in the mid 30s,
could see a decent amount of frost. Still a bit of uncertainty
regarding just how much winds drop off, so consensus was to hold off
on any frost headline at this point.

Saturday through Sunday, high pressure moves east across the area
and Sunday/Sunday night an upper level low slowly slides into the
Tennessee valley. This should keep the majority of any
precipitation south of the area. Sunday night though could see
showers sneak into the southern counties, so included a slight
chance then. Low confidence in this though as solutions keep the
better forcing south. High confidence in dry weather through
Saturday night.


.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The focus for the long term will be on shower chances.

Model blend suggests the slow moving southern system will lift north
into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday and before it is kicked to the east
by another upper system that will dive southeast over the area next
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Forecast builder suggests with the southern system expected to lift
further north than older model and ensemble runs, at least southern
and the eastern areas could see a few showers to start off with.
However, the best shower chances look to be next Wednesday and
Wednesday night with the second system. Finally, brief dry weather
is expected late next week in the wake of the the second system.

The blend has near to slightly below normal temperatures which look
reasonable given the low level thermals. That said, confidence in
precise temperatures is not high.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 20/12Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 611 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

High pressure and a dry column give high confidence for VFR flying
conditions through the TAF period per the SREF and GFS LAMP.

Winds will be northeast 5 knots or less.


Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ045>048-



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