Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 250645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
245 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 950 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

An upper low will lose influence across central Indiana overnight,
allowing drier air to move in for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold
front will bring rain chances on Friday, then dry weather will
return for the weekend into early next week. Below normal
temperatures into the weekend will give way to above normal
readings early next week.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 950 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A few showers continue across the eastern half of the forecast
area this evening, with this area still under the influence of an
upper level low. Meanwhile, drier air had brought clearing of low
level clouds to Illinois, but the clearing line for the low level
clouds has slowed down as it approaches the central part of the
Indiana border.

Showers will continue to diminish across the eastern forecast area
into the early overnight as the upper low loses its influence
across the area. Continued some low PoPs east until then.

Allowed for some partial clearing far west later this evening, but
don`t expect much more in the way of clearing with the loss of

Areas that do see some partial clearing might see a brief period
of fog, but increasing low level winds overnight should stop any
widespread development.

Clouds will keep temperatures from falling too much overnight.


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Water vapor imagery depicting slow moving mid level circulation over
the TN/OH valley this afternoon with northern stream upper trof
moving through Ontario. Northern stream wave will dig into the great
lakes region and kick closed upper low eastward toward the mid-
Atlantic tonight. This will lead to dry forecast by Wednesday
morning...diminishing trends on radar this afternoon but still have
some light returns so will continue with some lingering low chance
POPs overnight. Weak surface ridging will then build into the area
and provide fair weather Wednesday and Thursday with seasonably cool


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Dry weather is expected through the long term under the influence of
high pressure at the surface and aloft. Better than average
confidence in this dry stretch with good ensemble agreement.
Temperatures will increase a bit each day, starting out near normal
on Saturday and getting into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday.
Of note for lows, Saturday night/Sunday morning could see some areas
with lows still down in the mid 30s, but this is the only night
that frost may be a concern in the long term.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 250600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1142 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Conditions expected to return to MVFR for most sites, with some IFR
possible at KBMG overnight. VFR returns by mid-afternoon Wednesday.

Western sites will likely remain VFR for a few hours before falling
to MVFR. KIND/KBMG may be VFR at 06Z but will likely return to MVFR
around that time. KBMG will likely get into some IFR ceilings late
tonight. Confidence is only medium at best given the current
variability and models overdoing IFR potential.

Drier air will move into the area from northwest to southeast during
the daylight hours Wednesday, bringing conditions back to VFR by mid-
afternoon. VFR will then persist into Wednesday night.




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