Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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713
FXUS63 KIND 201849
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
249 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Quiet weather can be expected into the first half of the weekend,
then a couple of upper level systems will bring rain chances Sunday
into next week. Temperatures will average a little below normal
through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High pressure will keep central Indiana dry through tonight. There
will be a gradual increase in high clouds.

The center of the high will remain to the north of the area, and
with the addition of some high clouds, conditions will not favor
great radiational cooling. In addition, the lower atmosphere will
remain very dry.

Am expecting temperatures to remain above freezing tonight. With the
above factors in play, do not expect a widespread frost either. Will
mention patchy frost and issue a Special Weather Statement for it.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Saturday through Monday/
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Some high and mid cloud will be across the area Saturday as an upper
level system moves closer to the area. However, still expect some
sunshine. The model blend has been a little cool lately, so will
raise it some for highs Saturday.

Mid and high clouds will remain across the area Saturday night, but
dry conditions are still expected. An upper low moving into the
lower Mississippi Valley may bring a few showers to far southern
areas Sunday and Sunday night.

Models differ on how far north the upper low gets on Monday. The NAM
is an outlier on how far it brings the low north. Will trend away
from its solution and closer to the consensus of the other models.
Will thus cut back to the south the initialization`s PoPs Monday
afternoon.

With the exception of Saturday as mentioned above, the
initialization`s temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The focus for the long term will be on shower chances.

Model blend suggests the slow moving southern system will lift north
into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday and before it is kicked to the east
by another upper system that will dive southeast over the area next
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Forecast builder suggests with the southern system expected to lift
further north than older model and ensemble runs, at least southern
and the eastern areas could see a few showers to start off with.
However, the best shower chances look to be next Wednesday and
Wednesday night with the second system. Finally, brief dry weather
is expected late next week in the wake of the the second system.

The blend has near to slightly below normal temperatures which look
reasonable given the low level thermals. That said, confidence in
precise temperatures is not high.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 201800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

High pressure and deep subsidence will maintain dry conditions
with mainly clear skies into Saturday. Mid and high level clouds
will increase on Saturday as moisture aloft spills over the upper
ridge. Winds will be light easterly throughout much of the
period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Ryan



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