Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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944
FXUS63 KIND 242301
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
701 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

An upper low will move into the Smoky Mountains tonight as a cold
front drops southeast across central Indiana. This will result in
lingering showers through tonight.

Then, surface high pressure will bring dry weather back through
Thursday night. After that, another low pressure system will bring
more showers to the area Friday. The rest of the upcoming weekend
and early early next week will see warmer temperatures and dry
weather.

&&


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday/...

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Water vapor imagery depicting slow moving mid level circulation over
the TN/OH valley this afternoon with northern stream upper trof
moving through Ontario. Northern stream wave will dig into the great
lakes region and kick closed upper low eastward toward the mid-
Atlantic tonight. This will lead to dry forecast by Wednesday
morning...diminishing trends on radar this afternoon but still have
some light returns so will continue with some lingering low chance
POPs overnight. Weak surface ridging will then build into the area
and provide fair weather Wednesday and Thursday with seasonably cool
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Split flow pattern will have southern stream system moving along
the gulf coast while northern stream wave moves into the great
lakes Friday. Limited moisture and modest forcing will bring just
a small chance for showers as weak cold front moves through the
area. High pressure building in behind front will bring dry
weather for the weekend with near to just below normal
temperatures. Meanwhile...closed mid-upper level circulation just
past 140W will come onshore to western US this weekend. Subsequent
downstream ridging will build over the region and bring
substantial positive height anomalies over the midwest and great
lakes by the beginning of next week. Warm return flow on backside
of surface high will have low level thermal ridge over the area
Monday and Tuesday with 850mb temps near 11C supporting highs
reaching upper 70s to around 80F.

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 250000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 701 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Mainly MVFR conditions expected, with perhaps some IFR at KBMG
overnight.

Although back edge of clouds is trying to move toward central
Indiana, it shouldn`t get much further as the sun sets and mixing
diminishes. KLAF/KHUF may bounce to VFR early in the period, but
kept things simple there at MVFR. KIND/KBMG should remain MVFR.

Models are hinting at IFR developing overnight at most sites. Not
buying this yet for most sites, but did allow KBMG to dip into IFR
as they tend to do so. Confidence in ceilings is medium at best
overnight.

Conditions will improve during the morning into early afternoon from
northwest to southeast as drier air returns.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...50



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