400
FXUS63 KLMK 262307
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
707 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly clear and chilly tonight. Light rain chances Thursday.

* Warmer temperatures beginning and intervals of showers and storms
  Thursday night through next weekend.

* Confidence continues to increase for strong to severe storms
  Sunday into Monday, which may bring all severe hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Things are dry across the CWA at this hour, although we are seeing
some high base cumulus development, and a few light returns on
radar. Given large T/Td spreads on surface obs, and confirmation on
area soundings of very dry low levels, doubt this is hitting the
ground. Can`t rule out a brief sprinkle through late afternoon or
early evening, but not enough to keep measurable pop mention.

We`ll see a brief period of clear skies and calm winds tonight,
which given the dry airmass from today, should allow for temps to
drop rapidly. As a result, looking for lows mostly in the low to mid
30s. A few spots across the western CWA where clouds will set in
sooner may stay around 40.

We`ll see some light rain develop from NW to SE over our area
tomorrow as some weak isentropic lift overspreads a weak/stalled
warm frontal boundary. Overall QPF is expected to be light, but
could see .1" to .2" in some spots through the day. Precipitation
chances increase a bit more and move eastward through the afternoon.
A temperature gradient will continue to be noted given the frontal
boundary and gradient of cloud cover. Our SW should be able to reach
the upper 60s to near 70, while our NE will struggle to reach 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Thursday Night - Saturday...

Ridging over the central CONUS will begin to broaden out and
deamplify. Troughing over the desert SW will move over southern
Plains and into the TN/OH valleys. Simultaneously, another wave over
the northern Plains will likely produce a surface low pressure
system east of the Rockies. These wave, coupled with continued and
strong southerly flow pumping in moisture, will bring rain chances
Thursday night.

Friday, the warm front will continue to push north and through the
region. The northern stream wave will push through the southern
Great Lakes quickly, while the southern stream wave will gradually
move over the TN/OH Valleys through the weekend. With continued
large scale lift and moisture, will see continued chances for
showers and storms Friday and Saturday. Friday we will likely see a
break in precip chances as we get deeper in the warm sector and dry
out. With SW flow and a chance of drier conditions Friday, there is
a chance to overachieve on temperatures, therefore have increased
temps into the upper 70s and flirting with the low 80s.


Sunday - Monday Morning...

A trough originating off the coast of California will travel east
and develop a surface low pressure system east of the Rockies on
Saturday night. This low will begin to track east and strengthen,
while the previous southern stream wave moves through the OH Valley.
Cluster analysis reveals some uncertainties in the trough strength,
however most ensembles and clusters show a signal for strong to
severe storms. The EFI is high and the SOTs are low, therefore the
signal is sharpening and becoming more confident over time.

With PWATs around 1.6-2.0 inches there will be plenty of moisture
ahead of this system. Plenty lift from troughing, CVA, and along the
cold front will help lift the moisture. A strong 55-60kt LLJ will
move over the region ahead of the front will help bring in strong
shear. Forecast soundings reveal a few hundred joules of SBCAPE with
little CIN. Low pressure is currently forecasted to move through in
the overnight hours Sunday into Monday.

These storm ingredients and a consistent signal for strong to severe
storms could bring all severe hazards. Confidence continues to build
with this long term forecast.


Monday - Mid Next Week...

The cold front will push through the region by Monday afternoon and
surface high pressure will build in behind. Mild temperatures and
conditions are expected to follow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

We expect VFR conditions through the upcoming TAF period.  Winds
will slacken off this evening and become light and variable
overnight.  Mid-high level clouds will stream back in overnight and
we could see some light rain showers by morning as winds kick around
to the south.  Better chances of rain look to hold off until the
afternoon.  Cigs will lower through the day, but will remain VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM....SRW
AVIATION.....MJ