Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 042158
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
258 PM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 PM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

Calm and seasonably warm weather will prevail through Tuesday. Winds
begin to increase on Wednesday afternoon out ahead of the next storm
system, then rain and snow showers spread across the state from west
to east Thursday and Friday. Accumulating snow may create slick
travel in the northern mountains and northeast plains Friday through
Saturday morning. Temperatures moderate and skies clear early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 256 PM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

A regime of split flow aloft will persist throughout the short term.
Light and generally terrain-influenced winds are expected overnight
with dry conditions and temperatures resting a few degrees colder
than last night`s readings. The subtropical jet lifts across
northern MX moving into Tuesday, allowing for southwest flow aloft
to turn quasi-zonal. A subtle backdoor front will slide into eastern
NM, resulting in those locales seeing a few degrees of cooling
compared to Monday. Elsewhere, the subtle rise in pressure heights
will lend to a degree or two of warming. Moisture behind the weak
fropa may lead to blankets of stratus across eastern NM Tuesday
night, thanks to the accompanying upslope flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

Guidance is in good agreement that a zonal subtropical jet will be
located over New Mexico on Wednesday with a closed Low off the
southern California coast. Jet level winds are 120-130 kts in both
the EC and GFS yet both only have 700mb winds of around 10-30kts,
which should prevent strong wind gusts from making it down to the
surface. As mid-level saturation occurs, a few stronger gusts may
mix down to the surface in the lee of the central mountain chain,
but breezy conditions will prevail. The subtropical jet shifts
southward as the closed Low opens into a wave and ejects inland on
Thursday. Low-level moisture arrives and lift increases out ahead of
the trough Thursday afternoon, spreading mountain snow and lower
elevation rain showers across the western half of the state.
Inverted-v soundings point at the potential for gusty downburst
winds in virga showers in western NM during the afternoon hours
right ahead of and a long a Pacific cold front.

The Pacific front is expected to cross the state from west to east
Thursday evening into Friday morning, dropping temps a few degrees
below seasonal averages which should drop snow levels below 6,000
feet. Given the showery nature of the precipitation and the
relatively warm airmass, accumulating snow appears unlikely below
7,000 feet (west of the central mountain chain at least). A backdoor
front will invade the eastern plains Friday, dropping snow levels
below 4,000 feet Friday night. Upslope flow co-located with upper-
level divergence along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
mountains Friday afternoon through early Saturday could generate
some locally heavy snowfall rates and create minor travel
disruptions. Breezy northeast winds could also create some blowing
snow in the higher elevations and fortunately the lower elevation
snow should be too wet to be blown around. Snow showers may continue
in the northern mountains through Saturday afternoon, but most
models have the Low exiting to the east by the morning. A shortwave
ridge shifts overhead early next week, bringing temps back above
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 AM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

VFR expected to prevail throughout the TAF period with mostly
light winds. Lcl breezy conditions possible in the aftn, most
notably in and around KLVS, KGUP, and KSAF. Gusts should diminish
aft sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

Dry conditions to prevail through midweek amongst breezy conditions
most areas. Gusty winds will become more widespread on Wednesday
amongst minimum relative humidity in the teens to low double digits.
This will create the possibility of critical fire weather conditions
across the northeast highlands in the afternoon, with elevated fire
weather conditions elsewhere. An upper level disturbance enters the
forecast area on Thursday, bringing chances for precipitation and
colder temperatures through Saturday night. Dry conditions and light
to locally breezy winds reenter the forecast on Sunday through early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  29  58  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  22  54  23  54 /   0   5   0   5
Cuba............................  26  55  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  23  58  22  57 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  25  54  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  23  59  23  59 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  25  58  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  32  61  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  27  58  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  23  62  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  35  64  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  19  47  20  47 /   0   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  32  55  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  29  56  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  28  49  28  49 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  21  47  21  45 /   0   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  17  46  16  45 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  23  56  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  28  57  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  28  62  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  31  56  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  29  59  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  37  62  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  35  63  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  33  66  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  34  65  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  31  66  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  34  64  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  31  65  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  33  65  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  31  66  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  34  60  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  34  64  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  36  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  32  55  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  33  58  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  30  58  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  26  61  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  29  57  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  30  59  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  30  59  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  37  63  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  34  58  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  27  53  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  26  58  24  60 /   0   5   0   0
Springer........................  27  60  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  29  60  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  29  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  31  58  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  33  67  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  35  66  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  32  66  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  38  70  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  35  71  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  35  69  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  41  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  39  68  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  36  67  38  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12


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