008
FXUS65 KABQ 112036 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
236 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot temperatures today in the lower elevations of New Mexico
  (under 7000 feet) will increase the risk of heat-related
  illnesses for those without access to adequate cooling or
  hydration.

- Gusty north winds in eastern New Mexico this afternoon and east
  winds in the Rio Grande Valley tonight will create hazardous
  crosswinds on roadways.

- Thunderstorm chances trend higher on Friday, especially over
  central and eastern New Mexico. A few storms may become severe
  in eastern New Mexico Friday and Saturday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Today`s forecast high temperatures across eastern New Mexico have
been dropped several degrees due to the backdoor cold front
pushing in stronger and faster than expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Near to above average temperatures continue across much of the Land
of Enchantment outside of far northeast NM, where a backdoor front
has continued to push through during the morning and mid-afternoon.
Heat remains the main story throughout the remainder of this
afternoon, with the Heat Advisory in effect for the Chaves County
Plains, including Roswell, until 8pm tonight. Moderate to locally
major risk of heat-related impacts are likely for Roswell and the
Rio Grande Valley, including Socorro, Albuquerque, and Santa Fe.
While temperatures in the RGV will fall a few degrees short of Heat
Advisory criteria (100F), it is still imperative to make sure to
stay hydrated and to take breaks if outdoors today.

The backdoor front will continue to surge south/southeast throughout
the afternoon, reaching the central mountain chain late this
evening. A strong east canyon wind is then expected to develop
between 10pm-12am tonight for Santa Fe, ABQ, and south towards
Socorro and Carrizozo. The strongest gusts are favored to be
upwards of 45mph immediately below canyon openings. Isolated gusts
of 50mph or higher are possible, but are not expected to be
widespread. Thus, while the east canyon wind is expected to
persist through 6am-8am, a Wind Advisory does not appear
necessary at this time.

As the front and the winds mellow out by tomorrow morning, continued
upslope flow will allow for the development of showers and
thunderstorms over the high terrain by 12pm Friday. From NAM and RAP
forecast soundings, the lower levels appear too dry to constitute an
immediate threat for heavy rainfall, so even with development
expected over the burn scars near Ruidoso, a Flash Flood Watch is
not likely to be issued. Soundings do show sufficient instability
for initial storm updrafts to be supportive of small to isolated
large hail (1,000-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and wet bulb zero heights
around 7,500-9,500ft). Due to the easterly upslope flow and brisk
westerly winds aloft, bulk shear values around 20-30kts also
support an isolated to scattered strong to severe storm risk. SPC
has painted a Marginal (1/5) Risk of severe storms along and east
of the central mountain chain for Friday, and our current thinking
aligns with this risk. Additional storms look to form off the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the Raton Pass area and move into
northeast NM through the afternoon. As has been the case several
times over the past week, a cluster of storms looks prone to
develop in the early evening hours due to sufficient deep layer
shear and potentially propagate to the southeast along it`s cold
pool/outflow boundary. This would be a better chance at strong to
severe winds throughout the event, though this is a rather
conditional threat as soundings show a potential inversion that
storms would have to overcome without a true source of forcing.

A Marginal (1/4) Risk of excessive rainfall also exists in eastern
NM Friday, and the current thinking is that any isolated flash
flooding risk would be saved for areas with repeated rounds of
storms or an efficient rainfall producer on burn scars. The forecast
environment is not extremely conducive to training storms, but there
is a low chance for several storms to move over one area.

Last, but not least, a few isolated, high-based showers and
thunderstorms may develop near Mount Taylor during the afternoon,
producing little rainfall and perhaps a few dry lightning strikes.
This activity may produce an outflow boundary as well that pushes
through the ABQ metro in the afternoon, though confidence is only
moderate for this.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Saturday looks to be another stormy day across eastern NM, with the
potential for drier storms across western NM. Looks to be a rather
similar setup to Friday with remnant moisture and southerly return
flow across eastern NM, alongside inverted-V soundings in western
NM. For the eastern NM convection, bulk shear weakens a few knots,
which looks to stifle sustained updrafts just a touch, though there
are still likely to be a few strong, pulse-like storms. The lower
levels appear to remain rather dry over the burn scars near Ruidoso,
so while storms look favored to develop orographically, there looks
to be only a low to moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding.
Further in northeast NM, another backdoor front looks to surge into
that area Saturday afternoon/evening. Depending on when the front
makes its way into the state, that could aid the development of
strong to severe storms in northeast NM as directional shear
increases. Though, if the front is slower than currently modeled,
then storms may lack the shear and lift to sufficiently become
strong to severe. The backdoor front then pushes through the central
mountain chain Saturday night, once again producing a gusty east
canyon wind. Alongside the front pushing further south, the
atmospheric column looks poised to moisten, allowing for continued
stratiform rain showers and embedded thunderstorms through the night
across eastern NM. Rainfall rates should not be very high given an
expected stable yet moist atmosphere, though any areas that received
good rainfall already may see minor, nuisance flooding.

As the overnight rain continues and upslope flow remains for Sunday
morning, another day of rain is expected as we continue into the
afternoon. Much of eastern NM looks to remain very stable,
indicating stratiform rain with little to no thunder. On the other
hand, the moisture that seeps through the central mountain chain
after Saturday night`s east canyon wind will interact with a more
unstable environment near the Continental Divide. With inverted-V
soundings in the forecast, a few strong microbursts may develop
across western and central NM in any stronger thunderstorm. Along
the central mountain chain, further shower and storm development
looks likely. Without trying to sound like a broken record, Ruidoso
is likely to see another round of rain. What may be a saving grace
in terms of a flash flood risk is that the atmosphere looks to
remain rather stable, limiting the rainfall rates for the area.
Elsewhere, nuisance flooding may occur in areas that continue to see
rainfall over the course of the next few days.

Going into the beginning of next week, northwest flow looks to
entrench the area Monday and Tuesday. Monday looks to be the wetter
day of the two, and northwest flow can work out to be a producer of
strong to severe storms off of the central mountain chain. However,
questions remain on whether the atmosphere can destabilize enough
from early morning clouds. Tuesday appears drier at the moment,
though continued northwest flow will allow for higher bulk shear,
and any storm that can develop may become strong to severe. High
pressure looks to build over the area during the middle of next
week, allowing the heat to return to much of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are expected to persist through a
majority of the TAF period. Currently, breezy west to northwest
winds encompass much of central and western NM, while a backdoor
front produces gusty north winds across northeast and east central
NM. Both will continue through the afternoon, especially as the
front pushes further to the southeast. A strong east canyon wind
will develop after 04z tonight, strengthening by 06z. Gusts between
30-40kts are increasingly likely through the overnight hours at KABQ
and KSAF. An Airport Weather Warning will almost certainly be needed
for KABQ tonight. The progression of the front may induce instances
of LLWS at KABQ and KROW after 06z, however confidence in consistent
LLWS is not high enough to place in the TAF. After the front pushes
through, there is a moderate (50%) chance of MVFR ceilings
developing from KSXU to KTCC south to KCVN after 12z and extending
to the end of the TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected to begin building over the high terrain at the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the
next several days. Hot temperatures will continue for the next few
days. A strong backdoor front will continue to push south and
southeast this evening, before producing a strong east canyon wind
through the central mountain chain tonight. Above average
temperatures continue on Friday, with good chances for strong to
isolated severe storms across eastern NM producing gusty winds and
hail. Additionally, a few dry thunderstorms may develop along the
Continental Divide. More thunderstorms are expected for Saturday,
along with another backdoor front Saturday evening, acting very
similar to the backdoor front today. Sunday looks to be the day of
the most widespread rainfall across the state. Wetting rainfall has
a slight to good chance of occurring across most of the area except
for the areas around Gallup and Farmington. A few strong outflow
winds may cause erratic gusts on Sunday as well. Northwest flow
returns early next week, with storm chances in the east and breezy
northwest winds in the west. The area around Farmington is currently
favored for isolated critical fire weather conditions both Monday
and Tuesday. Above average temperatures return during the middle of
the week with the favored area of critical fire weather conditions
spreading into the RGV and Central Highlands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  95  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  42  90  48  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  52  88  57  89 /   0   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  49  92  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  54  88  57  87 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  53  91  57  90 /   0  10   0  10
Quemado.........................  55  90  58  87 /   0   0   0  10
Magdalena.......................  62  89  63  89 /   0   5   5  20
Datil...........................  58  87  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  52  95  54  92 /   0   0   0  20
Glenwood........................  55  98  57  96 /   0   0   0   5
Chama...........................  43  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  59  87  62  86 /   0   5  10  20
Pecos...........................  52  86  54  88 /   0   5  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  50  85  55  84 /   0  10   0  10
Red River.......................  41  76  45  76 /   0  10   0  10
Angel Fire......................  40  80  45  80 /   0   5   5  10
Taos............................  49  88  53  88 /   0   0   5   5
Mora............................  49  82  52  85 /   0  20  10  20
Espanola........................  55  93  59  93 /   0  10  10  10
Santa Fe........................  58  88  61  88 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  56  91  59  92 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  93  69  95 /   0  10  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  94  66  96 /   0  10   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  96  66  98 /   0  10   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  95  67  96 /   0  10  10   0
Belen...........................  61  97  64  98 /   0   5   5   0
Bernalillo......................  63  96  66  97 /   0  10  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  60  96  63  97 /   0   5   5   0
Corrales........................  63  96  67  97 /   0  10  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  62  96  64  97 /   0   5   5   0
Placitas........................  63  92  66  93 /   0  10  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  63  95  66  96 /   0  10  10   0
Socorro.........................  68 100  69  98 /   0   0  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  88  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
Tijeras.........................  59  90  61  91 /   0  10  10   0
Edgewood........................  56  90  58  92 /   0  10  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  91  55  93 /   0  10  10   5
Clines Corners..................  55  85  57  89 /   0  10  10   5
Mountainair.....................  56  90  58  91 /   0  10  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  57  89  58  90 /   0  20  20   0
Carrizozo.......................  65  92  64  92 /   0  30  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  60  83  59  85 /   0  60  10  30
Capulin.........................  46  82  52  85 /   0  20   5  10
Raton...........................  48  87  52  89 /   0  20   5  10
Springer........................  50  87  54  91 /   5  20  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  53  84  56  88 /   5  10  10  10
Clayton.........................  54  86  61  93 /   5  10  20  20
Roy.............................  53  83  57  89 /   0  20  30  30
Conchas.........................  60  92  63  97 /   5  20  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  59  89  60  95 /  10  20  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  62  93  64  98 /  10  20  30  40
Clovis..........................  65  92  65  96 /   5  10  20  10
Portales........................  65  93  65  98 /   5  10  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  64  92  63  96 /  10  20  30  10
Roswell.........................  70  96  67  99 /   0  30  20  20
Picacho.........................  63  89  61  93 /   0  60  20  50
Elk.............................  61  87  59  91 /   0  70  30  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77