080
FXUS65 KABQ 262139
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
339 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

After an active evening of showers and thunderstorms across much
of New Mexico, coverage of storms gradually trends downward into
the weekend. Hotter conditions then build into the Land of
Enchantment for at least the first half of next week, with Heat
Advisories possible for the Albuquerque Metro and portions of the
Eastern Plains, particularly in Chaves County around Roswell, by
Tuesday. A renewed influx of monsoonal moisture should boost rain
chances again late in the work week ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Near-term forecast is on track, with well-advertised mid/upper-
level shortwave trough conspicuous on GOES water-vapor channel
satellite imagery moving into northern New Mexico from the Four
Corners area. Along with a speed max over eastern NM at 250mb,
this should help keep showers and thunderstorms going in the
south-central mountains and adjacent highlands well into the
evening and possibly beyond midnight, though intensity should be
waning by that time. Massaged PoP`s upward a bit from 03-09Z in
these areas as well. Storms will continue general movement from
NNW to SSE at around 10mph, with the current Flash Flood Watch
remaining in effect until Midnight MDT for a wide swath of the
area, from roughly the central mountain chain westward to the
Continental Divide. Areas most at risk will be the HPCC and South
Fork/Salt burn scars, but also the ABQ and Santa Fe metro areas
this evening, particularly from about 6 to 10 PM.

The mid-level shortwave does not look to clear the southeastern
portion of the state until around 12Z, so light showers may linger
there through much of the night. Eventually, subsidence behind
the shortwave should clear things out for the most part Saturday
morning. Despite column moisture gradually ticking downward as the
mid-level high center moves into west-central NM, sufficient
moisture will remain in place for another round of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially given the
destabilization from the early day sunshine. QPF signal in the
guidance, favoring the western and central mountains, makes sense
with the pattern. Went ahead and hoisted another Flash Flood Watch
for the zones incorporating the HPCC and Sacramento Complex burn
scars from 12 Noon to 9 PM on Saturday. Catron County may be
another area to watch for possible expansion of the watch, but
confidence not high enough there or other areas at this time. With
gradually falling PW`s and lack of dynamical forcing, storms
should not last nearly as deep into the evening as today`s. Max
and min temps continue to run within a few degrees of climatology.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The name of the game this time of year is tracking the position of
the mid/upper-level high. The center of said upper high is
forecast to wobble around over the long-term period, but never
stray too far from New Mexico. This will lead to generally drier
and hotter than average conditions, spelling a brief break in the
wet monsoon pattern we have experienced much of the past six
weeks. With ensemble solutions (viewed through the prism of
cluster analysis) in good agreement with their deterministic
counterparts, did not stray too far from the NBM, but did make a
few targeted edits.

On Sunday, the upper-level high center is progged to be near El
Paso, TX, with a belt of enhanced westerly flow to its north
across the central Rockies. The 12Z GFS, in particular, is pretty
robust with an H5 shortwave rounding the western flank of the high
and moving through western NM in the evening, so did bump up/extend
duration of PoP`s in this region. Outside of this area and the
central mountain chain, most other areas should stay dry on
Sunday. Temps start to heat up as well, generally 3-8 deg F above
climo for areas east of the Continental Divide. Not a lot of
change for Monday, as the upper ridge flattens a bit between a
subtropical low off the coast of Baja California and an inverted
trough moving into south-central Texas.

Heat continues to build heading toward mid-week. Current thinking
is that max temps will approach Heat Advisory Criteria for
portions of the Rio Grande Valley (including ABQ) and the Chaves
County Plains by Wedesday, if not sooner. Moderate to High values
of Heat Risk and Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) in those areas
could tip the scales in favor of Heat Advisories on Tuesday.
Western mountains continue to be favored for storm chances, along
with the central mountains, so burn scar issues cannot be ruled
out.

By Wed-Thu of next week, a seasonally typical, sprawling mid-
level subtropical ridge with lie across the south-central CONUS.
As its center first nudges eastward into Texas and then reforms
near the Four Corners (within a larger-scale West CONUS ridge),
the door for a new influx of monsoonal moisture opens with
scattered diurnal PoP`s for most to round out next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

With rich monsoon moisture in the state today, more showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon and
evening. Storms will initiate first over the western and northern
high terrain and will move southward eventually filling into the
Rio Grande valley and over the central mountains and highlands and
eventually the east central plains this evening. Storms will pose
the usual hazards of gusty downburst winds, small hail, lightning
and heavy downpours that will temporarily reduce visibility and
ceilings. Most of the activity is expected to come to an end by
midnight, but a few sparse storms may survive into the early
morning hours Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

No critical or elevated fire weather conditions are expected over
the next seven days. Relative humidity values do fall below 20
percent over portions of northern and western NM daily beginning on
Sunday, but 20-foot winds remain generally less than 10-12mph (apart
from thunderstorms). Fuels also not particularly receptive, with
latest ERC`s hovering near 50 percent or below. Otherwise, numerous
showers and thunderstorms continue well into this evening, some with
locally heavy rainfall. Daily thunderstorm coverage and rainfall
intensity will trend downward Saturday and Sunday, then remain below
normal through Wednesday. A renewed influx of moisture in the latter
half of next week should increase thunderstorm coverage again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  92  64  92 /  20   5  10   0
Dulce...........................  48  89  51  89 /  30  20  20   5
Cuba............................  54  87  57  87 /  40  20  40  10
Gallup..........................  56  88  56  89 /  40  20  20  10
El Morro........................  56  83  57  83 /  50  50  40  20
Grants..........................  58  86  60  88 /  50  40  40  20
Quemado.........................  57  84  58  84 /  70  60  50  40
Magdalena.......................  61  85  64  86 /  50  60  40  30
Datil...........................  56  82  59  83 /  60  70  40  40
Reserve.........................  56  89  56  89 /  70  70  40  50
Glenwood........................  66  92  67  93 /  60  80  50  50
Chama...........................  48  82  51  81 /  40  30  30   5
Los Alamos......................  58  84  63  86 /  60  40  30  10
Pecos...........................  56  85  60  87 /  60  60  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  46  82  48  85 /  60  50  20  10
Red River.......................  45  74  48  76 /  60  60  20  10
Angel Fire......................  42  77  45  81 /  60  60  10  10
Taos............................  51  87  53  89 /  50  30  10   5
Mora............................  51  82  54  86 /  50  60  10  10
Espanola........................  58  93  61  94 /  50  20  30   0
Santa Fe........................  58  86  62  89 /  70  40  30  10
Santa Fe Airport................  57  89  61  91 /  60  30  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  93  69  94 /  70  40  50  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  94  68  96 /  80  20  30   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  96  68  97 /  70  10  30   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  95  68  96 /  60  20  30   5
Belen...........................  63  95  66  97 /  60  20  30   5
Bernalillo......................  62  96  67  97 /  60  20  30   5
Bosque Farms....................  61  94  65  96 /  70  20  30   5
Corrales........................  64  96  68  97 /  60  20  30   5
Los Lunas.......................  63  95  67  96 /  60  10  30   5
Placitas........................  61  92  66  93 /  70  20  30   5
Rio Rancho......................  64  95  68  97 /  60  20  30   5
Socorro.........................  66  96  69  98 /  40  40  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  85  62  87 /  70  30  30  10
Tijeras.........................  59  87  63  89 /  70  30  30  10
Edgewood........................  54  88  59  90 /  70  30  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  89  57  91 /  70  30  20   5
Clines Corners..................  54  85  58  88 /  60  50  20  10
Mountainair.....................  56  86  60  89 /  60  40  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  58  86  60  89 /  70  40  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  64  90  66  94 /  60  40  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  59  80  60  85 /  50  50  20  40
Capulin.........................  54  82  56  89 /  30  40   5  10
Raton...........................  55  87  56  93 /  30  40   5   5
Springer........................  56  87  56  94 /  30  40   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  53  83  56  89 /  50  60  10   5
Clayton.........................  62  90  65  97 /  10  10   0   5
Roy.............................  59  86  60  94 /  40  30  10   5
Conchas.........................  64  93  66 100 /  60  20  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  89  64  96 /  50  30  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  64  93  68 100 /  20   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  66  93  68  99 /  20   5   5   0
Portales........................  66  93  68  99 /  10   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  93  68  99 /  40  10  10   0
Roswell.........................  71  96  72 102 /  30  20   5   5
Picacho.........................  65  90  65  95 /  40  30  10  10
Elk.............................  60  87  61  92 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ203-204-206>224-
226-229-241.

Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
NMZ214-215-226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...52