802
FXUS65 KABQ 192345 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
445 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 445 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

- A second arctic cold front will arrive Monday with even colder
  air and more light snow of generally 2 inches or less. Higher
  amounts of 2 to 4 inches will likely fall on the high peaks of
  the Sangre de Cristo mountains. Even light snow amounts will
  create slick travel given the very cold air and breezy winds.
  Even more dangerously cold wind chills are expected with this
  second arctic airmass, keeping an elevated risk for hypothermia
  and frostbite for those with prolonged exposure outdoors.

- Strong east canyon winds on the east side of Albuquerque may
  reach 30 to 45 mph Monday night. This will force wind chill
  values below zero early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

Very cold temperatures will persist over the Land of Enchantment for
the next few days as another push of cold arctic air invades the
area on Monday. Light snow will return for northeastern New Mexico,
with higher accumulations along the Sangre De Cristo mountains.
Monday night into Tuesday morning will see dangerously cold wind
chills. With apparent temperatures below 0 for the majority of the
state, an Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for this period.
Temperatures will gradually warm up through the end of the work week,
and aside from breeziness in the middle of the week, weather will be
fairly benign. Chances for precipitation return towards the end of
the weekend as a system approaches from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

Northern and central NM is entrenched in the coldest temperatures of
the season thus far today. The modified Arctic airmass remains
entrenched across the eastern plains of NM with winds veering out of
the south at the surface most areas. Despite this southerly wind
direction, temperatures remain well below normal ranging from 12F at
Raton to 29F in Roswell. Wind chills have come back above zero most
areas, but are expected to fall below zero again tonight in some
spots. This is also true for parts of western and central NM where a
cold and incredibly dry airmass accompanies breezy westerly winds
this afternoon. Despite temperatures a bit warmer in the 20s to 30s,
dewpoints are still below zero alongside higher wind speeds
resulting in colder wind chills which are expected to fall back
below zero again tonight as well. A Wind Chill Advisory will be
issued again tonight for parts of the highlands from Raton to Clines
Corners, the Upper Rio Grande Valley, and for Curry and Roosevelt
Counties.

These bitter cold wind chills will hold on all day Monday through
Monday night into Tuesday morning as the leading edge of a
reinforcing Arctic cold front nudges into northeastern NM. Highs
from Raton to Capulin to Clayton will struggle to break the single-
digits. At the risk of being very astute, this is an abnormally cold
airmass for this part of the country, highlighted by numerical
models resolving H7 temperatures of -18C to -22C. These would be the
coldest H7 temperatures over northeastern NM for this time period
according to NAEFs climate analysis. Around a dozen or so record
cold high temperatures will be at risk being broken or tied Monday.
These are long duration very dangerous temperatures for Colfax and
Union Counties tonight through Tuesday morning. Make sure to have
cold weather plans and precautions in place and in practice. This
next cold front pushes south and west through eastern NM Monday
evening underlying a shortwave trough. Modest upslope flow into the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts will yield light to moderate
snow Monday evening and night, with 1 to 4 inches accumulating. The
bitter cold will be the more dangerous threat and will keep the
Extreme Cold Watch going as is. East canyon winds are also expected
to push through the gaps of the central mountain chain into Santa Fe
and ABQ late day Monday and Monday evening. Have increased gap winds
to account for this, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph during this time
into eastern ABQ. Little to no snow is forecast for the ABQ Metro
and East Mountain Communities however. A light dusting to an inch
will be possible in the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains near
Ruidoso by early Tuesday morning before conditions clear out heading
into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

While Tuesday morning will be the coldest morning of the year so
far, temperatures throughout most of the state look to rebound back
to above freezing throughout the afternoon, with highs a few degrees
warmer than the previous day in some places. As the positively
tilted trough over New Mexico exits to the east, surface winds over
the region veer and lee-side surface troughing develops over
northeast NM. Meanwhile, flow aloft will become northwesterly and a
couple of shortwave perturbations will push some mid-level speed
maxes of 40 to 50 kts over the area. As a result, Tuesday afternoon
through wednesday morning looks to be breezy for the eastern plains
and central mountains. With winds aloft not quite perpendicular to
the terrain, didn`t go as high as upper end guidance would suggest
for Tuesday afternoon. In any case, 20 to 25 kt downsloping winds
will aid in warming temperatures, particularly for the central
highlands, bumping temperatures up to the low 40s for this region.
The rest of the state will still be pretty chilly, with highs in the
upper 30s, overall about 10 to 20 degrees below normal for this time
of year.

New Mexico will find itself between riding along the Pacific coast
and troughing along eastern CONUS, keeping conditions dry through
the end of the work week. Upper level heights rise slightly, leading
to gradual warming trend. However, a brief backdoor front late
Wednesday night will cool temperatures slightly for Thursday,
particularly for eastern New Mexico. Flow becomes more zonal towards
the end of the week with high temperatures returning to near normal
for the first time in over a week. The forecast for the weekend is
still quite uncertain regarding the evolution of an approaching
northern tough. Ensembles are in pretty good agreement of a system
digging south into the Great Basin, but there is quite a bit of
spread regarding timing and location. European and Canadian
ensembles isolate a low over SoCal, leading to slight ridging over
the Desert Southwest. GEFS ensembles show a more progressive system
pushing into New Mexico by Sunday, with chances for snowfall
returning for the western half of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

Midlevel clouds across western and central NM should break up and
lift before midnight. Low clouds and MVFR ceilings across far
northeast NM, including KRTN, will persist this evening and
overnight. A reinforcing Arctic front enters far northeast NM
around daybreak Monday pushing south and west during the day. Some
MVFR ceilings develop in its wake across northeast NM during the
mid to late morning shifting more towards the east slopes of the
Sangre De Cristo Mountains and upper RGV to as far south as the
central highlands midday into the afternoon and evening. Snow
behind this backdoor front looks to limited to far northeast NM
late morning and early afternoon and to the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains during the afternoon and evening. Some
localized areas of IFR and LIFR conditions will be possible in
heavier pockets of snow. The backdoor front will push through the
gaps of the central mountain chain during the late afternoon and
early evening hours bringing a gusty east wind to KABQ and
southeast east wind to KSAF where some gusts of 25 to 30 kts will
be possible. Finally, gusty northwest winds across the northwest
plateau, including KFMN, and west central highlands Monday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

Incredibly cold Arctic air holds onto eastern NM through Tuesday,
while cold and very dry air remains entrenched across western and
central NM. Elevated fire weather conditions will result Monday
across western and central NM despite the cold weather, mainly due
to breezy and very low humidity. Light snow will reach parts of the
east slops of the central mountain chain Monday thru Monday night,
with 1 to 4 inches accumulating in the Sangre de Cristo`s. The main
threat to any planned outdoor burning will be the dangerous wind
chills during this timeframe. Conditions warm up relatively speaking
for a brief period Wednesday, plateauing many areas Thursday before
a more sustained warmup arrives Friday and into the start of the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................   9  34   1  33 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  -4  32 -13  31 /   0   5   5   0
Cuba............................   6  31  -3  32 /   0   0  10   0
Gallup..........................   0  34 -13  38 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  11  33  -1  36 /   0   0   5   0
Grants..........................   4  34 -10  38 /   0   0  10   0
Quemado.........................  11  35   0  37 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  19  36   9  36 /   0   0  20   0
Datil...........................  16  36   6  38 /   0   0   5   0
Reserve.........................   7  46  -2  47 /   0   0   5   0
Glenwood........................  18  52  13  47 /   0   0  10   0
Chama...........................  -3  26  -8  29 /   0  20  20   0
Los Alamos......................  12  28   3  30 /   0  10  20   0
Pecos...........................   9  24  -3  34 /   0  30  30   0
Cerro/Questa....................   3  22  -5  30 /   0  40  30   0
Red River.......................  -2  12 -10  22 /   5  50  40   0
Angel Fire......................  -9  16 -26  27 /   5  60  40   0
Taos............................   0  26 -13  31 /   0  30  30   0
Mora............................   1  19 -10  37 /   0  50  40   0
Espanola........................   6  36  -5  37 /   0  10  20   0
Santa Fe........................  13  29   3  31 /   5  20  20   0
Santa Fe Airport................  11  33   3  33 /   0  10  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  22  37   9  34 /   0   5  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  18  39   8  34 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  13  42   5  36 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  19  39   8  36 /   0   0  10   0
Belen...........................   9  42   1  36 /   0   0  10   0
Bernalillo......................  15  40   5  37 /   0   0  10   0
Bosque Farms....................   8  42   0  35 /   0   0  10   0
Corrales........................  16  41   7  38 /   0   0  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  11  42   3  35 /   0   0  10   0
Placitas........................  18  35   5  33 /   0   5  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  18  40   8  36 /   0   0  10   0
Socorro.........................  19  45   8  38 /   0   0  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  14  30   0  28 /   0  10  20   0
Tijeras.........................  16  33   5  30 /   0  10  20   0
Edgewood........................  12  29  -5  31 /   0  10  20   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............   5  28 -11  33 /   0   5  20   0
Clines Corners..................   8  18  -5  29 /   0  10  30   0
Mountainair.....................  11  31  -2  32 /   0   0  20   0
Gran Quivira....................  12  32   0  31 /   0   0  20   0
Carrizozo.......................  19  41   8  33 /   0   0  20   0
Ruidoso.........................  19  36   5  33 /   0   0  40   0
Capulin.........................   0   6 -10  33 /   5  50  10   0
Raton...........................  -1  10 -12  34 /   0  40  10   0
Springer........................   0  15 -13  37 /   0  20  10   0
Las Vegas.......................   4  16  -7  38 /   0  30  20   0
Clayton.........................   9  15  -3  39 /   5  30  10   0
Roy.............................   6  16  -6  35 /   0  20   5   0
Conchas.........................  11  25   0  42 /   0  10  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  11  22   2  40 /   0   5  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  11  24   0  40 /   0  10  10   0
Clovis..........................  14  24   5  33 /   0   5  10   0
Portales........................  13  26   4  34 /   0   5  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  11  27   1  38 /   0   0  10   0
Roswell.........................  19  33  15  36 /   0   0  10   0
Picacho.........................  13  32   8  39 /   0   0  20   0
Elk.............................  16  35   5  39 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
for NMZ201>241.

Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Monday
for NMZ216-222-223-229-235-236.

Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Monday
for NMZ227-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...71