830
FXUS65 KABQ 150812
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
212 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Scattered showers and storms will favor central and western New
  Mexico today and tomorrow, creating a moderate risk of burn scar
  flash flooding.

- Storm coverage trends up Thursday and Friday, increasing the
  threat of flash flooding with daily rounds of numerous showers
  and storms.

- Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning could
  accompany storms each day around the area. A few storms may
  become severe on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The center of the monsoon ridge will nudge eastward into central AZ
today, with light northerly flow prevailing over New Mexico. Storm
motion will be slower the further west, with a more clear north to
south motion closer to the central mountain chain. Scattered storms
will quickly become outflow dominant as they move into the lower
elevations during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong outflow
wind gusts upwards of 40 mph will be the main hazard with these
storms, but a few pulse severe storms may be able to produce
marginally severe hail as well in the northeast and central
highlands. While a Flash Flood Watch was not issued for the
Ruidoso area, there is a non-zero risk of localized heavy
rainfall on one of the area scars. HREF 90th percentile rainfall
totals are less than 0.5", although they do show a 1" bullseye
just to the west of the Blue 2 scar. HREF max precip is showing a
few spots with 1-2" in the highlands just east of the central
mountain chain, but less than 0.25" across almost all of central
and northern NM. For this reason, there is not even a Marginal
risk for flash flooding from WPC, suggesting there is a less than
5% chance off any off-scar flash flooding today.

The center of the H5 ridge will continue trekking east on Wednesday,
centering itself over north-central NM for the day`s round of
convection. Max heights around 592dam won`t do much to suppress
convective initiation given the strong daytime heating, but it will
limit updraft strength to some extent. The slow and erratic storm
motion will result in small wetting footprints, but heavy
rainfall rates under these small footprints. This is concerning
for the Ruidoso area and while QPF amounts are light at this time,
a Flash Flood Watch may be needed given the localized nature of
the heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The monsoon ridge will move into W TX on Thursday. Combined with a
near-stationary upper-low off the coast of Baja California, this
will advect a plume of sub-tropical moisture in from the south. This
will result in an uptick in both storm coverage and intensity. Storm
motion will be south to north, with a slightly more westerly
component to the flow in the northeast. This will drive storms off
the northern mountains into the eastern plains and shear looks to
be sufficient to support longer duration updrafts as this occurs.
The 90th percentile QPF from both the GEFS and EPS are therefore
hinting at the northeast plains as the most likely area to receive
heavy rainfall totals. Clusters of storms with heavy rainfall
rates (due to PWATs of 120-150% of normal) will bring rounds of
storms to this area, enhancing the flash flood risk. Furthermore,
20 to 25 kts of bulk shear and strong instability will be enough
to support at least isolated pulse severe storms. GEFS 90th
percentile 24-hour rainfall totals already show a broad area of
1-2" across north-central and northeastern NM, but localized
totals upwards of 3" cannot be ruled out with this pattern.

Friday will be very similar to Thursday, with numerous showers
and storms, except storm coverage may focus more over the
southwest as opposed to the northeast. GEFS ensemble mean PWATs
in Albuquerque peak on Friday (around 1.1"), even though both the
deterministic GFS and NAM show around 1.3". A few severe storms
cannot be ruled out on Friday, but it does look like the threat
will be higher on Thursday. The plume of sub-tropical moisture
will continue to tilt over the weekend, becoming more SW/NE
oriented. This could be beneficial for the Ruidoso area as it
would keep the deepest moisture and therefore highest storm
coverage off to the west. Furthermore, the recent trend from the
EPS is to bring drier air in from the southwest on Saturday and
Sunday, resulting in a significant downtick in storm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Only a few showers remain in the middle Rio Grande Valley tonight.
An outflow boundary associated with these showers will continue
its way south down the Rio Grande Valley, creating gusty outflow
winds in its wake for an hour or two. No additional storm
development is expected tonight, allowing VFR conditions and light
winds to prevail.

Storms tomorrow will develop around 18Z and favor the high terrain
along and west of the central mountain chain. Storms will slowly
drift south off the mountains and create gusty outflow winds as
they do. Brief gusty outflow winds up to 40KT will be a threat at
all sites, with the highest confidence in central and western NM.
Similar to today, storm coverage and intensity will trend down
between 00Z and 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7
days. Scattered storms today and Wednesday will favor areas along
and west of the central mountain chain, then storm coverage becomes
more widespread Thursday through Saturday. Slow and erratic storm
motion the next couple days will become more south to north late
week as a plume of sub-tropical moisture is advected in from the
south. Widespread wetting rainfall is likely on these days and a few
locations in north and northeastern NM could see 3"+ in a 72 hour
period. Outside of gusty outflow winds near storms, winds will
generally be light the next several days. Storm chances will trend
down Sunday into the early portion of next week as temperatures rise
back up above seasonal averages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  98  63  96  64 /  10  10  10  20
Dulce...........................  91  47  91  48 /  40  20  40  30
Cuba............................  90  57  90  59 /  20  20  30  40
Gallup..........................  93  54  89  56 /  30  40  40  50
El Morro........................  87  56  85  56 /  40  50  60  60
Grants..........................  92  56  89  57 /  40  40  50  50
Quemado.........................  89  59  86  58 /  60  60  70  70
Magdalena.......................  88  63  88  63 /  30  30  40  50
Datil...........................  86  58  84  56 /  60  50  60  50
Reserve.........................  91  53  88  53 /  70  50  70  60
Glenwood........................  93  58  90  58 /  70  50  70  50
Chama...........................  84  48  85  49 /  40  20  50  30
Los Alamos......................  87  61  86  61 /  40  20  40  30
Pecos...........................  87  58  87  58 /  40  20  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  86  56  85  55 /  40  10  60  40
Red River.......................  76  47  75  46 /  40  10  60  40
Angel Fire......................  79  41  78  42 /  40  20  60  40
Taos............................  88  53  88  54 /  40  10  40  40
Mora............................  83  52  83  51 /  50  30  50  40
Espanola........................  94  60  94  61 /  30  10  30  30
Santa Fe........................  88  61  88  62 /  30  20  40  40
Santa Fe Airport................  92  60  92  61 /  20  20  30  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  69  94  70 /  20  30  30  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  67  95  68 /  10  20  20  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  67  97  68 /  10  20  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  68  96  69 /  10  20  20  40
Belen...........................  97  64  97  66 /  10  20  20  40
Bernalillo......................  97  66  97  67 /  20  20  20  40
Bosque Farms....................  97  64  97  65 /  10  20  20  40
Corrales........................  97  66  97  68 /  20  20  20  40
Los Lunas.......................  97  65  97  66 /  10  20  20  40
Placitas........................  93  65  94  66 /  20  20  20  40
Rio Rancho......................  96  66  96  68 /  10  20  20  40
Socorro.........................  97  69  97  69 /  20  20  20  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  60  89  60 /  20  20  30  40
Tijeras.........................  90  62  90  62 /  20  20  30  40
Edgewood........................  90  56  90  57 /  20  20  30  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  54  91  56 /  20  20  20  30
Clines Corners..................  86  58  86  57 /  20  30  30  50
Mountainair.....................  88  59  89  58 /  20  30  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  87  59  88  59 /  20  20  20  40
Carrizozo.......................  89  65  90  65 /  20  10  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  80  59  82  58 /  30  20  30  30
Capulin.........................  86  55  84  53 /  20  20  40  60
Raton...........................  90  54  88  54 /  20  20  40  50
Springer........................  92  54  90  56 /  20  20  40  40
Las Vegas.......................  86  54  86  54 /  30  20  40  30
Clayton.........................  92  63  91  61 /  10  20  10  60
Roy.............................  89  58  88  58 /  20  20  10  40
Conchas.........................  96  64  96  66 /  10  20   5  40
Santa Rosa......................  93  62  94  64 /  10  20  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  94  64  95  63 /   5  10   5  30
Clovis..........................  92  66  95  66 /   5   5   0  20
Portales........................  93  65  95  67 /   5   5   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  94  66  96  66 /   5  10   5  20
Roswell.........................  96  70 100  71 /   5   5   5   5
Picacho.........................  90  63  92  64 /  10   5  10  10
Elk.............................  85  61  88  61 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16