Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 190217 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
817 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Minor forecast update to remove wind and winter weather highlight
wording from some forecast zones overnight.


.PREV DISCUSSION...535 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018...
Strong to very strong west to northwest winds will slowly diminish as
showers wind down this evening, except across northeast NM where a
strong northerly winds on the backside of deep surface low pressure
over the southern plains will keep gusts in the 35 to 45 kt range.
Strong winds will linger through much of Monday morning across the
northeast with light to moderate northwest winds expected elsewhere
under dry west to northwest flow aloft.



.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018...
Windy and cooler weather will continue into the evening hours as a
low pressure system treks across and eventually east of New Mexico.
Any showers and thunderstorms will tend to diminish after midnight,
and winds will slowly decrease in speed after midnight in most
locations, the exception being the eastern plains and especially
northeastern corner of the state. On Monday cool, breezy, and brisk
conditions will reside in the wake of today`s low pressure system.
Temperatures will then climb back toward normal on Tuesday, and will
then exceed normal by Wednesday and Thursday.



The typical dynamic, unsettled, and miserable weather that March can
bring to NM has come to full fruition today as a 545 decameter upper
level low swings across the northern tier of the state. Winds surged
almost up to 95 kt at 500 mb and near 65 kt at 700 mb with this mid
level jet cutting right across the state. High winds will continue to
buffet many areas, potentially even increasing a bit more along and
east of the central mountain chain before dusk. Precipitation has
thus far favored the western and central zones, and the trend into
the evening should be a waning one with a focus more toward the north
central zones. Will keep the winter weather advisory going for the
higher terrain zones of north central NM through the evening, but
additional accumulations will be on the lighter side, and the evening
shift might be able to cancel it earlier if precip diminishes ahead
of schedule. As for wind advisories/warnings, will keep the warnings
going through 1 am, but will extend the advisories for the Raton Pass
and Union county through daytime tomorrow as the tight surface
pressure gradient behind the back door segment of the front should
easily necessitate the extension.

A trailing short wave trough will cross northern NM into Monday as
today`s low races into the MS River valley. Flow aloft will fall off
quickly in the morning, briefly increasing a bit in the afternoon as
the gradient aloft re-tightens a bit, however the overall wind speeds
will be a far cry from today`s excessiveness. Again, primary concerns
for winds on Monday will reside in the far northeast corner of state
where the advisory will be extended. A stray shower could linger near
the northern mountains or far northeast plains, but otherwise mostly
dry conditions are expected Monday with temperatures generally
remaining 5 to 10 degrees below mid March averages.

Finally, a respite from the winds will grace NM into Wednesday and
Thursday as a ridge aloft works overhead. It is the latter half of
March, however, so a few hours of breezy conditions will still likely
transpire over the central highlands and some ridge tops of the
central mountain chain both on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures
will climb toward normal on Tuesday, then exceed climatology on
Wednesday by 5 to 15 degrees.

The ridge aloft will begin breaking down into Thursday as the next
longwave trough takes shape and approaches the Pacific Northwest.
This will cause upper level winds to turn more southwesterly over NM,
and as the lee side surface trough deepens, stronger winds will mix
to the surface Thursday afternoon with temperatures continuing to
climb. One shortwave trough will precede the longwave feature,
moving into the Rockies north of NM. This will bring a brief surge to
winds in NM with a quick shot of precip over the northwestern to
north central parts of the state. The low will then collect energy
offshore of the Pacific Northwest before it can dive into CA next
weekend. This system would most likely cross north of the Four
Corners, leaving NM with higher prospects for more wind than



An upper level low pressure system passing eastward along the CO/NM
border will continue to trigger some accumulating snow in the
northern mountains this afternoon and to a lesser extent this
evening. The storm system steered the jet stream overhead with a 95
kt speed max crossing the Highway 60 corridor this afternoon, and a
sharp surface trough in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
Strong to very strong surface winds will peak in most places late
this afternoon, then trend downward very gradually through the
evening and late night hours. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will
finish crossing the eastern half of the state from the west this
afternoon lowering temperatures. Thus, even though winds will stay
strong through the evening, humidities should come up enough by 8 pm
for the ongoing Red Flag Warning to expire on time. One place the
winds will not die down late tonight is the northeast corner around
Capulin and Clayton, where a back door cold front will arrive and
shift winds out of the north toward sunrise. Winds will gust from 45
to 55 mph across the northeast through the morning on Monday, before
weakening during the early afternoon.

A weak secondary upper level perturbation could cause some light
snow showers to redevelop in the northern mountains Monday night. A
dry and low amplitude ridge of high pressure will then cross from
the west Tuesday through mid week with warming temperatures and
lighter winds.

The next extended period of critical fire weather conditions is
expected Thursday through at least Saturday mainly east of the
central mountain chain. Models are in pretty good agreement on an
upper level trough that will cross the western US from the west
during the latter half of the week with most of the energy passing
north of NM. It will draw strong to moderately strong winds aloft
across the state, and induce another surface trough in the lee of
the southern Rockies, with breezy to windy conditions mainly along
and east of the central mountain chain each afternoon. Temperatures
across the east will trend downward from 15 to 20 degrees above
normal on Thursday, to 5 to 13 degrees above normal by Saturday.
Minimum humidities will generally range around 10 to 15 percent with
Haines Indices mostly in the 3 to 5 range. Critical fire weather
conditions are likely again across the east, and potentially across
central areas depending on how quickly humidities come up with the
system. It could bring some wetting precip to the northern and
western mountains, as well as the northwest plateau.



High Wind Warning until 1 AM MDT Monday for the following zones...

Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT Monday for the following zones...

Wind Advisory until 1 AM MDT Monday for the following zones...


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