Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 132241

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
541 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00Z TAF period for
all three sites. Winds will be out of the SE around 10 knots
early on in the TAF period with some mid level clouds. Around 15Z
winds will become SW around 20 kts gusting 30 kts with mostly
clear skies.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/

Fire weather concerns continue to dominate the forecast.  See

Northwest flow aloft will transition to near-zonal Wednesday night
as a mid-level ridge translates east across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.  Southwest flow begins on Thursday as shortwave trof
approaches.  Dynamics with shortwave trof will cause winds to
increase.  Modest moisture return in southwest flow will lead to
some elevated instability on Thursday, especially across the
southeast half of the forecast area.  May see a few sprinkles on
Thursday, but do not expect measurable precipitation.  Pacific
cold front passes Thursday night, scouring out any low- to mid-
level moisture.  Compact closed mid-level low and deepening
surface low over Kansas on Friday will lead to windy conditions
across the Panhandles.  Backdoor cold front Friday night leads to
slightly cooler conditions on Saturday.  Rapid warmup expected on
Sunday as front retreats as a warm front.  Front progged to pass
as cold front again Sunday night, putting end to warming trend.


Light to moderate southeast winds are expected tonight.  Dry
southwest winds resume on Wednesday, with elevated to possibly
critical fire weather conditions developing.  Dry southwest winds
increase on Thursday, with critical fire weather conditions
becoming more likely, especially over the western column of
counties.  A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for this area
for Thursday.  West and northwest winds on Friday will produce
widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions.
Elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions may develop
on Saturday across western sections as south winds return.  Dry
southwest winds on Sunday will lead to elevated or critical fire
weather conditions.  Northwest winds on Monday may lead to
elevated fire weather conditions across mainly the northeast part
of the Combined Panhandles. 03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for the following zones: Cimarron.



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