Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

12Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected through the period. Slight
chance for storms at DHT or GUY but confidence is too low to add.
Winds are expected to be southerly during the day and turn more
southeasterly after 00Z while remaining light. DHT will see winds
swing northerly by the end of the period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 456 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/


Highlights for this forecast package include breezy to strong winds
behind a front on Tuesday, with increasing chances for rainfall in
association of the frontal passage. Thunderstorms will be possible
as well, and there is a chance a few of these storms could become
strong to marginally severe, but the severe chances will be mainly
for far eastern to southeastern parts of the Texas Panhandle. Some
areas across the east and southeastern Texas Panhandle could get
more appreciable rainfall amounts somewhere on the order of around
half-an-inch in some areas. Otherwise, the forecast package is
relatively quiet until Sunday night into early next week. Next week
could be interesting regarding severe weather chances, but a lot can
change from now until then.

Today will be a pleasant late April day. Temperatures will be in the
70s area-wide with light wind speeds around 10-15 mph under mostly
clear skies. Not a bad day overall.

Tuesday is when things become a little more interesting. Potent
height rises behind a frontal passage will result in a strong
pressure gradient across the Panhandles, and we will be looking at
breezy to strong wind speeds in the wake of the front. We are
currently approaching wind advisory criteria, so something to keep
in mind going forward as we are headline-free of any hazard
products at this time due to borderline criteria. A ridge of
Theta-E will become evident Tuesday afternoon with warm air
advection in the vicinity of a frontal boundary which also
coincides with a divergent Q-vector field aloft. As a result, we
are looking at a decent chance for rainfall across the
southeastern Texas Panhandle as precipitable water values approach
0.50"-0.75" (upwards near an inch). These chances could turn out
to be promising for a broader area which encompasses more of the
eastern and southern parts of the Texas Panhandle. It will all
depend on the frontal passage as the focal point for lifting these
air parcels to initiate some showers and convection. Better
instability is south of the forecast area. Forecast soundings over
our area depict a strong capping inversion which will inhibit
storms, so it may be difficult for those air parcels to break
through the cap and tap into free convection. Stronger omega
values will be noted Tuesday night once the atmospheric column
saturates, and hence the better chances for precipitation in the
forecast. Overnight we decrease our chances for any strong to
severe storms, but showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger
into Wednesday morning. One thing to keep in mind is if the front
slows down, and those higher dewpoint (and higher instability)
values can sneak father north into our area, we could be looking
at the potential for marginally severe to perhaps severe weather
across southern and eastern parts of the forecast area. However,
it does appear that widespread severe weather is unlikely for our
county warning area at this time.

A side note for Tuesday is the uncertainty in the exact timing of
the front which could create highly variable temperatures across the
Panhandles and potentially a busted forecast for some areas.
Overall, there will be a wide range of temperatures across the area
Tuesday with the passage of the cold front, and these temps will
likely range from the mid 50s to the mid 70s.

Wednesday will be on the mild side with highs only reaching the 60s,
but we will continue to warm up throughout the week into the 70s to
perhaps lower 80s. Temperatures are not forecasted to get below
freezing over the next seven days.

The not-too-distant future may hold a chance for severe weather.
Early next week is showing some signs which could yield the
potential for thunderstorms and severe weather given the high
instability noted in the GFS and ECMWF. Bulk shear is rather feeble
at this time, but Tuesday has signs of 30-40 knots in the 0-6km
layer. Also looking at forecast dewpoints early next week, there
could be 50s across eastern parts of the area while western zones
show 20s, so there could be the potential for a dryline setup to
initiate and hence our triggering mechanism for air parcels. Its
very far out and not going to hold my breath, but at least something
to keep an eye on going forward into next week. After all, we are
heading into May, and May/June are our peak months for severe
weather, so this would not be an uncommon setup across the



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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