Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS64 KAMA 222129
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
429 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Highlights for this forecast package include rain chances later
today/tonight, as well as the following two days. These chances
could result in thunderstorms, but widespread severe weather does
not appear very likely at this time. Otherwise, as we go into the
holiday weekend (Sat-Mon), the overall theme is dry with hot
temperatures, mostly clear skies, and light to breezy wind speeds.
In other words, unless something changes in the pattern, it appears
to be a nice holiday weekend at this time.

Looking at the short/near term, the chances for rainfall are not
that great, but there does at least appear to be a chance later this
afternoon and tonight for mainly central and western parts of the
Panhandles. Looking at forecast soundings, the overall wind pattern
does not look favorable for maintaining the life of thunderstorms
with very erratic light winds aloft. Convective chances
today/tonight are likely to be driven off convective temps and last
nights mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). The MCV has become less
apparent on satellite through the afternoon hours, but as of 4pm a
few isolated cells were noted on radar to the northwest around the
Perryton area. There is some semblance of an embedded shortwave in
the upper level pattern as well, but it may be a result of the MCV
last night. In other words, it just appears thunderstorms may have a
hard time sustaining a life cycle tonight given the weak wind field
and inability to maintain an updraft without the presence ideal
shear/wind pattern aloft. Chances look a little better for
rain/thunderstorms tomorrow (Wed) as we will likely hit our
convective temps again. However, just like today the wind field is
not conducive for thunderstorms sustainability. Then we have ridging
building in over the area, and although a small chance for
thunderstorm initiation again Thursday due to convective temps,
chances are thunderstorms will be limited.  In other words, while
some areas may receive rainfall over the next few days, chances
overall are not good for rainfall (or widespread severe weather) the
next several days (today/tonight through Thursday) in a "big
picture" sense.

Probably the bigger story is the nice Memorial Day weekend on tap.
High pressure will continue to build in over the area by Friday, and
it looks to be very warm Saturday and Sunday. Many areas will be
close to the triple digits. Wind speeds look to be light by
"Panhandle standards" with perhaps a breezy day thrown into the mix
Sunday with speeds around 15-20 mph and gusts closer to around 30
mph. Mostly sunny skies will be in store as well during this
stretch. As it stands now, outside of the hot temperatures it
appears to be a very pleasant Memorial Day weekend, and fortunately
the heat index values don`t appear to be alarming at this point. The
ridge aloft should begin to break down by Sunday as the next upper
level low moves over the Great Basin. This could result in the
currently dry forecast for Sun/Mon turning towards perhaps a chance
for thunderstorms across central and eastern parts of the
Panhandles.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  84  60  88  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
Beaver OK                  63  89  64  91  65 /  30  30  20  20  10
Boise City OK              59  84  58  89  58 /  30  20  20  10  10
Borger TX                  64  87  64  90  67 /  30  30  20  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              62  86  60  90  63 /  30  30  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  61  85  60  88  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
Clarendon TX               63  85  63  87  64 /  20  40  30  20  10
Dalhart TX                 59  84  58  89  58 /  30  20  20  20  10
Guymon OK                  63  87  62  91  63 /  30  30  20  20  10
Hereford TX                60  84  59  88  61 /  30  30  30  20  10
Lipscomb TX                64  87  65  89  66 /  20  40  30  20  10
Pampa TX                   61  84  61  87  64 /  20  30  20  20  10
Shamrock TX                64  86  64  88  64 /  10  40  30  20  10
Wellington TX              65  88  65  88  65 /  10  40  30  20  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.