994
FXUS64 KAMA 111128
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
628 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Some showers will try to make their way into the TX Panhandle from
northeastern NM, but not expecting them to make it much further past
a line drawn north to south from Dalhart. Additional showers and
possibly embedded thunderstorms are favored to develop in western
TX/northeastern NM and move northeastward later this morning through
the afternoon through much of the CWA. Given expected widespread
cloud coverage and rain through the day, have lowered highs across
much of the area; some locations in the far western Panhandles may
not reach 60 degrees today. Much of the first round of showers and
thunderstorms will move out of the Panhandles in the evening. CAMs
diverge regarding how widespread any shower/thunderstorm activity
will be tonight (Saturday night), likely owing to differing
strength/location of subtle forcing mechanisms. But there are some
decent geopotential height falls through the night which suggests
enough forcing should be in place for a continued chance for showers
and thunderstorms through the night. There are hints that mid-level
lapse rates will steepen overnight as the upper-level trough crawls
toward the Panhandles, thus some small hail would be possible with
stronger updrafts. This round of showers and thunderstorms may
continue into a portion of the morning in the southeastern
Panhandles.

A surface low is favored to develop during the day Sunday in eastern
NM which should introduce southwesterly to westerly winds in the
southwestern TX Panhandle and southeasterly to easterly winds in the
eastern combined Panhandles which will set up a surface trough
somewhere in the area by afternoon. NAM is farthest west with the
surface trough (west of Amarillo) while GFS is farthest east (in the
vicinity of Pampa), and ECMWF is just slightly further west of GFS.
Given that showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday morning in
the eastern TX Panhandle, there is naturally some concern that
clouds will linger into the afternoon hours. If this happens, there
may be capping concerns that could inhibit the development of
thunderstorms in that area. The better chance for thunderstorms that
may be strong to severe would be in the areas that are less
rainy/cloudy throughout the day which seems to be in the northern
combined Panhandles at this time, but will certainly have to monitor
the eastern Panhandles as that appears to be where conditions will
be most favorable.

The surface low will move eastward Sunday night which will help
bring a weak cold front through the Panhandles. Some showers and
perhaps some thunderstorms may continue in the eastern Panhandles
Sunday night.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Based off the latest 11/00Z model and numerical updates, a low
amplitude sinusoidal pattern will dictate the weather pattern
throughout the long term forecast period. With that said, we will
start off with leftover showers and storms on MOnday across the
eastern Panhandles as the main system departs to the east.

A break in the activity under a larger area of subsidence as a
H500 ridge moves into the region on Tuesday and most of Wednesday.
A broad H500 trough should traverse across the Four Corners
Region Wednesday night through Thursday. Out ahead of the main
trough Wednesday afternoon and evening, sufficient instability,
shear, and lift from a cold front moving through, should all be
present for a larger coverage for the potential of thunderstorms,
where some thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Will get more
details of elements and timing as we get closer to the middle of
next week. Dry conditions then return to end the work week as the
main H500 trough quickly exits the southern High Plains Thursday
night. High temperatures should remain above average for the
majority of the forecast period, with the exception on Thursday
in the wake of the cold front where temperatures will be below
average.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions are present and should continue through the day.
MVFR ceilings move in this evening, possibly lowering to IFR later
in the overnight period but confidence precludes mentions at this
time. Otherwise, rounds of showers are favored through much of
the period. Thunderstorms are possible at each site tonight, but
low confidence in thunderstorms occurring and the timing of
thunderstorms precludes mentions at this time. Amendments may be
needed.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  53  75  48 /  50  80  80  20
Beaver OK                  76  53  73  50 /  30  70  90  60
Boise City OK              64  46  71  44 /  80  70  80  20
Borger TX                  73  55  78  50 /  40  80  90  30
Boys Ranch TX              67  52  78  47 /  60  80  60  20
Canyon TX                  66  53  76  48 /  60  80  70  20
Clarendon TX               69  54  70  53 /  40  70  90  40
Dalhart TX                 63  48  74  44 /  80  80  70  10
Guymon OK                  71  50  74  46 /  60  80  90  40
Hereford TX                64  53  78  48 /  70  80  50  10
Lipscomb TX                76  54  71  51 /  20  80  90  70
Pampa TX                   71  53  72  50 /  30  70  90  40
Shamrock TX                73  54  68  53 /  30  70  90  60
Wellington TX              73  54  69  54 /  30  60  90  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52