Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
604 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018


For the 12Z TAFs:

MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours due to
saturated low levels in the atmosphere. Surface observations and
satellite imagery indicate these conditions should stick around
for the next several hours, but VFR conditions will become evident
here by mid/late morning and through the remainder of this TAF



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/

Departing closed upper low will allow for a northwesterly upper
flow as an upper ridge builds in from the west early this week.
Warming trend today and Monday before another cold front moves
through the Panhandles Tuesday. Windy and turning a lot cooler
Tuesday. Northern stream upper trough as depicted by the GFS or
closed upper low as forecast by the ECMWF over the northern
Rockies and Plains states Tuesday will track south and east
Tuesday night into the central Rockies and central Plains states.
Chances for convection expected as early as Tuesday afternoon
continuing into Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Upper ridge over the Western states by Wednesday night and
Thursday allows for drier northwesterly flow aloft. Northern
stream upper trough forecast to track south and east by Thursday
night with a cold front moving through the forecast area Thursday
afternoon and evening. Chances for convection return by Thursday
evening and Thursday night. Cooler and drier Friday as surface
ridge builds into the Panhandles late this week.

Big differences in the medium range models late this week into
the weekend with the GFS forecasting "dirty" upper ridge building
in over West Texas from the Rockies late Friday into the weekend
with ample moisture trapped under the upper ridge. Chances for
convection continue across the forecast area Friday night through
the upcoming weekend and into early next week. The ECMWF, on the
other hand, forecasting the upper ridge over the southwestern
states and Intermountain West late this week building in over the
Panhandles by late this upcoming weekend and early next week.
However, the ECMWF maintains a dry forecast late this week through
early next week. Confidence low but will maintain chances for
convection late this week into the weekend for now.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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