Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 111713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1213 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018


For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period.

Outside of breezy wind speeds this afternoon and high clouds,
this TAF period will be straightforward. Winds go light and
variable tonight before getting a dominant southerly component
late tomorrow morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 605 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/

VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours. Post-frontal
winds are expected to remain out of a northerly direction through
the daylight hours then slowly shift out of the east overnight.
Wind gusts leading up to the 12Z hour have shown a drop off for
the KGUY and KDHT terminals. They return after the 12Z hour and
remain in the 25kt to 30kt range through most of the daylight
hours. KAMA could also see a drop off of gusts just after 12Z but
they should return later this morning. Around 00Z, wind speeds
should be on the decline with gusts dropping off. Light and
variable winds are expected after 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 515 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/

For today, gusty north winds which have been affecting the forecast
area last night into early this morning will gradually diminish
today as surface high pressure builds into the region. Much cooler
high temperatures are in store this afternoon, with expected values
on the order of 15 to 25 degrees lower than those observed Saturday.

Otherwise, little has changed with respect to the overall weather
pattern progged to affect the srn high plains this week. The latest
numerical weather models continue to suggest that an upper level
ridge of high pressure over the Rockies will remain amplified into
early this week and then slide east across the plains states during
the middle of the week. A couple minor upper level shortwave trofs
are projected to undercut this ridge and affect parts of the plains
region durg the next few days. However, our forecast area is expected
to remain generally high and dry based on the majority of the latest
computer model runs. Temperatures will moderate and undergo a
warming trend during the middle to latter part of this week.

Medium range models are in general agreement that broad upper level
westerly to southwesterly flow aloft will return to the srn high
plains late this week into the weekend as the above mentioned upper
level ridge moves east of the plains states. Embedded storm systems
within this flow pattern are progged to likely dry slot our region
based on the model majority solutions. Therefore, have continued
with a dry forecast through next Sunday.


Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles due to 20 foot north
winds of 15 to 20 mph with some higher gusts along with forecast
minimum relative humidity values between 15 and 20 percent.

A prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather conditions
are expected Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
across all of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles due to strong
winds and low relative humidity values.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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