Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 161737

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


A tropical wave is along 36W S of 10N moving W at 10-15 kt.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03S-05N between 31W-


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01N30W
to 02N35W. The ITCZ resumes W of the tropical wave near 02N37W
and continues to the coast of N Brazil near 01N50W. Besides the
convection associated with the tropical wave, widely scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 05W-20W, and from
02S-03N between 20W-31W.



A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N36W to
an embedded 1011 mb low near 29N86W to 25N88W. Patches of
scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf of Mexico and W
Cuba between 81W-85W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60
nm of the trough, and over central and south Florida. A 1015 mb
high is centered over the NW Gulf near 25N94W producing fair

In the upper level, an upper level ridge is over the W Gulf W of
92W. An upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 84W.
A good amount of upper level cloudiness is over the E Gulf. The
GFS model maintains the upper level trough over the E Gulf for the
next several days.

The low over the NE Gulf is forecast to drift northward, reaching
inland in the Florida Panhandle by early Thursday. A surface
trough will trail from the low pressure center, across the north
central Gulf waters, through Friday. High pressure will build in
its wake and prevail through the upcoming weekend.


15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over the NW Caribbean from 19N-22N between
82W-86W. Isolated moderate convection is further S along the
coasts of Honduras ans Nicaragua from 11N-17N between 81W-84W.
Scattered showers are inland over Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 08.5N from Costa Rica to northern
Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is S of 11N.

The base of an upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean. The
remainder of the Caribbean has a broad ridge with westerly flow.

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong
trades across the Caribbean generally south of 18N east of 80W
through the upcoming weekend, with highest seas of 10 ft off the
northwest coast of Colombia. Large northeast swell will reach the
tropical waters east of the Virgin Islands on Thu night, and reach
the northeast Atlantic Passages on Fri night into Sat, with seas
then subsiding from the east on Sun and Mon. Broad low pressure
will develop across the southwest Caribbean early next week.


A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high centered near 32N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 23N-31N
between 75W-79W to include the N Bahamas. Elsewhere, a 1031 mb
high is centered over the Azores near 38N28W.

An upper level ridge is over the W Atlantic between 65W-75W. A
very large trough is over the central Atlantic between 35W-65W. A
ridge is over the E Atlantic E of 35W. A small upper level low is
now centered over Morocco.

An east to west ridge will meander across the W Atlantic waters
through early next week supporting fresh to locally strong flow
across the tropical waters including the approaches to the
northern Caribbean Passages, except near gale conditions are
forecast along the north coast of Hispaniola late Thu. Fresh to
locally strong southerly winds are forecast north of the Bahamas

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