Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 130532

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N11W, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to
00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 150 nm on
either side of the boundaries between 06W-24W and within 50 nm to
the north of the ITCZ between 30W-47W.



A weakening stationary front extends across the Florida Straits
along 24N and east of 84W with scattered showers. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored
by a 1026 mb high centered over the west Atlantic.

Moderate easterly flow across the Gulf will become fresh to
strong today ahead of a late season cold front that will move off
the Texas coast tonight. Strong northerly winds will follow the
front, reaching gale-force off Veracruz by late Sat as the front
reaches from western Florida Panhandle to the northwest Yucatan
peninsula. The front will sweep the southeast Gulf by late Sun.
Winds and seas diminishing from west to east by early next week
as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf in the wake of
the front.


Gentle to moderate trade winds continue across the basin. Broad
upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough continues from the eastern Pacific Ocean, across
the border of Costa Rica and Panama, across 80W in Panama, into
northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
the trough. Scattered showers are noted across the basin, with
greater coverage mainly over the Greater Antilles.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will increase to fresh to strong
with building seas across the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of
Honduras into Sun. The ridge will shift east ahead of a cold
front moving into the northwest Caribbean late Sun, and reaching
from central Cuba to eastern Honduras Mon followed by strong
northerly winds. This late season front will weaken through late
Mon allowing winds and seas to diminish over the northwest
Caribbean through Tue. Farther east, NE swell in excess of 8 ft
will persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands into early
next week.


A cold front passes through 31N56W to 26N63W to 25N74W, then
becomes weak and stationary through 24N80W. Scattered showers are
noted along and east of the cold front mainly north of 26N.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean from 10N northward from 70W eastward, anchored by a 1028 mb
high centered near 30N36W.

The cold front will stall along 27N today then dissipate. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will support pulses of
fresh to strong trade winds off Hispaniola late today and Sat.
Easterly winds will increase to fresh to strong east of 75W by early
Sun ahead of a second cold front moving off the northeast Florida
coast late Sun. Strong to near gale force winds and building seas
will accompany the front north of 27N as it moves east, reaching
from 31N70W to eastern Cuba Mon night. Winds will diminish through
late Tue as the front reaches from Bermuda to the southern
Bahamas, but NW swell in excess of 8 ft will persist north of 27N
east of 75W.

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