Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 220549

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1249 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Quasi-linear thunderstorm line in Eastern New Mexico generally
undergoing very slow weakening, but still producing locally strong
to severe storms. These are still about an hour or so west of the
Texas line - showers at least are expected as they move into the
western South Plains and southwest Panhandle, but solutions
consistently show additional weakening as they move towards KLBB
and KPVW close to daybreak mainly as virga. The other overnight
issue is possibility again of an MVFR cloud layer developing on
the Caprock. Solutions again backing away a little on this, but
still show moistening about 2000 to 3000 feet AGL close to
daybreak. Maintaining previous forecast of MVFR both KLBB and KPVW
between about 13Z and 17Z before this layer again lifts and mixes
into a scattered cumulus deck during the afternoon. As for thunder
chances later this afternoon, the latest HRRR seems overly aggressive
developing activity KLBB to KPVW between about 20Z and 22Z this
afternoon - will leave out for now and watch the overnight trends
before considering inclusion in the 12Z TAF forecasts. KCDS
expected to remain too far east for either stratus or thunder
consideration this forecast. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

MVFR ceilings looking not as likely as previously, but there still
should be a period of such on the Caprock at KLBB and KPVW shortly
after sunrise Tuesday. Thunderstorms are moving off the mountains
of central New Mexico and will make a run to, and maybe past, the
state line later tonight. Unlikely to make it to KLBB and KPVW but
not out of the question.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

An area of upper level difluence over NM is shown well on WV imagery
as an upper low slowly pushes southeastward across central CA. This
upper diffluence will aide in convective development across the
mountains of NM this afternoon. This convection, currently beginning
to develop as of noon CDT, will only slowly push eastward as
steering flow is weak. There is a decent chance of the convection
moving into the FA by the evening into the overnight hours. How far
east the convection will push is uncertain, but it should mostly be
limited to the I27/US87 corridor and westward. Overall the threat
for severe convection is low as wind shear will be weak (0-6 km 25
kt or less on average). A somewhat similar scenario is expected
tomorrow with the main differences being that the upper low should
open and be absorbed into the main upper flow and shear will be even
weaker. Convection initiation could occur closer to home if there
are residual boundaries left across the FA from tonight`s possible
convection. Otherwise storm chances will be mostly confined to the
western portions of the FA and dependent upon convection moving
eastward from NM. Wednesday will be even less predictable as there
is no organized surface boundary to initiate lift (i.e. dryline).
Lift will depend mostly on any remnant convective boundaries along
with weaknesses moving across the upper ridge.

A subtropical ridge is progged to develop along the Rockies late
this week into the weekend. This would place the region under
northwesterly flow allowing for some thunderstorm chances mainly
during the evening and overnight hours. This will depend on the
placement of the ridge. The GFS is trying to build the ridge farther
eastward with the axis over eastern NM which would limit storm
chances for the FA.




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