Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 180817
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
317 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Now that we got through another extreme fire weather day we will
have our first real shot at dryline severe convection.

A surface ridge will ooze into the region today behind a strong cold
front early this morning. This will primarily keep temperatures
pleasantly lower than observed yesterday. Very poor moisture return
will occur on Thursday despite southeasterly winds. The cold front
will drive all the way into the Gulf of Mexico stunting quality
moisture return. Friday will see much improved low level moisture
ahead of a strong upper level low moving along the 37th parallel.
Strong lift will spread overhead on Friday afternoon and evening as
an upper level jet streak rounds the base of the trough. This may
make up for the lack of substantial instability that is expected.
Mixed layer CAPEs are only progged to be less than 1000 J/kg with
highest values over the southwestern South Plains. Higher values
will exist farther to the south into the Permian Basin where
stronger low level theta-e air will exist. There will be no shortage
of wind shear as the upper trough and jet streaks approach the
region.

Fortunately, this system will be moving very slowly which will allow
precipitation chances to linger into Saturday. Instability will
exist aloft in the atmosphere with this very cold low in vicinity of
the region. A strong front will then plow through during the second
half of the day on Saturday. Overall, the next several days through
early next week will remain below seasonal averages for daytime
temperatures.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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