253
FXUS64 KLUB 091717
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1217 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Very warm temperatures continue across the region today through
  Thursday with slightly cooler conditions expected this weekend
  and next week.

- Daily thunderstorm chances through early next week, mainly
  during the evening and overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Water vapor channel imagery highlights the continued presence of
upper level ridging centered just south of the Four Corners, along
with continued isolated to scattered convection early this morning
within the associated northerly flow aloft over KS, OK, and TX.
Models remain in good agreement that the upper ridge axis will
generally flatten throughout the day today in response to a potent
shortwave trough moving onshore over NorCal. As a result, very
modest midlevel height rises will overspread the region today with
the corresponding increase in subsidence and midlevel warming
expected to bring a decrease in storm chances compared to the past
couple of days. An isolated short-lived storm or two will still be
possible given the moist low levels and strong heating, mainly off
the Caprock under a lingering band of midlevel moisture. Tonight,
a subset of models point to decaying upstream convection possibly
making it into the SE TX Panhandle well after sunset in NNE flow.
Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with highs in the
mid to upper 90s, with one or two spots in the SE TX Panhandle
perhaps reaching 100, and lows tonight will range from the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The longterm forecast for drier and warmer conditions during the
week and the return of storm chances later in the week is still on
par. The upper high sitting over the Desert Southwest will flatten
and expand latitudinally as an upper trough tracks north of the
ridge. However, the expansion of the high will have no effect on the
upper flow or heights over the Texas Panhandle. Thickness values
will increase by mid-week due to pressure falls. Additionally, south
to southwesterly surface flow will prevail as lee surface troughing
develops. Greater thicknesses and southerly surface flow will result
in temperatures slightly warming Wednesday-Friday to the mid to
upper 90s.

Thunderstorm chances return Thursday evening as the upper shortwave
tracks over the Intermountain West into the Central Plains by the
latter half of the week. The shortwave in combination with moist
southerly upslope winds, thunderstorms are progged to develop off
the Raton Mesa. With decent instability and shear, these
thunderstorms could persist and track into our region especially for
the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains by
Thursday evening. However, as confidence on this is low, NBM slight
chance PoPs were kept. By the weekend, the upper high will back off
to the west as the upper trough continues to track east. Multiple
shortwaves are progged to track over the region as southerly surface
flow persists bringing in gulf moisture to the area. This will
result in cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s to lower 90s and
rain chances through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Southerly
winds will remain light through the day before shifting to the
southwest overnight. Winds should shift back from the south and
become breezy through tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10