Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 271115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
615 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

A 40 kt southerly LLJ was creating LLWS over KLBB and KPVW early
this morning, with light surface winds in place. These winds will
increase to breezy levels this afternoon, remaining somewhat
elevated into this evening. In addition, there is the slim
possibility of high-based thunder late this afternoon into this
evening, though the best chances are expected to reside north of
the terminals. Regardless, VFR will continue to be the rule.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

The upper-low centered over NV will edge slightly eastward today,
with our corresponding upper ridge axis nudging east just a bit
as well. Although there will be minor cooling aloft, temps around
700 mb and below are expected to remain about the same, with the
850mb thermal ridge of 30C+ extending northward along the TX/NM
state line. This will keep hot temperatures going today, maybe
just a degree or two cooler than yesterday for most locations.
Once again, we expect the coolest (but still hot) temps to be in
the southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains, where
they`ve received generous rainfall the past week (and where low-
level winds remain southeasterly). A shortwave ejecting northeast
from the upper-low today will brush West Texas and should
contribute to scattered t-storm activity across the Panhandle,
developing within the pressure trough/diffuse dryline running
roughly north-south from the west-central Panhandle through the
South Plains. The activity should become more isolated farther
south into our forecast area as forcing diminishes and capping
increases. For now we have an isolated mention ending just north
of the Lubbock area. Deep-layer shear will actually be on the
increase thanks to the upper-level jet associated with the
shortwave. However, buoyancy should be limited due to high cloud
bases and warm mid-level temperatures. MLCAPE values may be as
high as about 1000 J/Kg across our northern counties, decreasing
farther south. This should support a strong/severe wind gust
potential and we`ll add a mention to the HWO.

The pattern should not change much for Memorial Day. Another
shortwave is progged to be moving through nrn NM and CO, brushing
West Texas. A bit more cooling aloft might help drag the t-storm
chances just a bit farther south, although the extent of t-storm
coverage remains pretty elusive at this point. We will also
continue with Monday being the coolest (we use that term loosely)
day in the forecast period -with highs of 100F or more hopefully
confined to only the southern portions of the forecast area.

Temperatures are expected to warm Tuesday and Wednesday, due more
to the increasing westerly, downsloping flow, rather than an
increase in mid-level heights, which doesn`t really occur until
Thu/Fri, as the upper ridge pops up again over TX. This should
result in temperatures above 100F for most of the area starting
Tuesday and likely continuing through Friday. Highs approaching
105F across the southern portions of the South Plains Wed through
Fri may require a heat advisory. A shortwave ejecting through the
central plains on Friday might give us a possibility of breaking
through the cap Friday afternoon and evening given the intense
surface heating, perhaps with development occurring near the
Caprock edge, something we`ll be watching the next couple of days.

Finally, while the GFS still indicates a front making it through
most or all of the forecast area Saturday bringing us hope for
slightly cooler temperatures and a chance of rain next weekend,
the latest iteration of the ECMWF stalls the front to our north
with the upper ridge maintaining a firm grip over TX. We may have
to increase temperatures for the weekend if the ECMWF starts a

Hot, dry and breezy conditions will create an elevated fire danger
across the western South Plains during the afternoon and evening
hours today and tomorrow, and possibly Tuesday. We will issue a
Fire Danger Statement to highlight this threat.




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