598
FXUS64 KLUB 101713
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

 - A few showers and thunderstorms may make it into the
   northwestern part of the forecast area tonight.

 - Rain chances increase this weekend with heavy rainfall and
   flooding being possible threats.

 - Seasonably hot to end the week then cooler conditions expected
   this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Upper air analysis this morning shows a high centered over the
Desert Southwest, elongated from the eastern Pacific off the coast
of southern California eastward to the southern High Plains. A weak
trough with rich mid level moisture is then located along the Gulf
Coast of Texas and Louisiana with the subtropical ridge to the east
of it. The north of the ridge over the southwestern CONUS is a short
wave trough that will dig southeastward with time, although its
effects won`t be realized across the forecast area until the long
term portion of the forecast.

Will be looking at the potential for thunderstorms to form on and
near the Raton Mesa this afternoon with potential to roll
southeastward into the forecast area this evening. Deep moisture
that direction is relatively limited, and bulk shear is less than
would like ideally to see a mature convective complex reach into the
forecast area. However, a low level instability axis extending
northwestward out of the forecast area into northeastern New Mexico
combined with increasing support from the aforementioned digging
shortwave trough support 20-30 percent PoPs across the northwestern
corner before 06Z with little support currently noted to extend that
much farther to the south and southeast during the overnight hours.

As the digging trough advances over the central and southern High
Plains Friday chances begin to increase for convective initiation in
or just to the west of the forecast area, although the better
chances come early in the long term portion of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The digging shortwave trough mentioned above is progged to erode the
eastern flank of an upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest
while merging with a pre-existing trough located over southeast
Texas with a resultant increase in mid-level moisture and shower and
thunderstorm chances as early as Friday evening, although the best
chances come Saturday following a period of mid-level moisture
advection and further retrograding of the western upper ridge. That
pattern remains fairly stagnant through the weekend and possibly
into Monday or Tuesday. At that point there are signs that the
eastern subtropical ridge will attempt to build westward with some
drying in the mid-levels, but another trough moving across the
central/northern Plains will try to send a cold front southward down
the High Plains, possibly become a focus for convective development
midweek. As a result, precip chances through the week look fine with
the highest being over the weekend. Increasing PWATs to 90th
percentile and weak flow and shear point to a flooding threat and
will continue to monitor as the event unfolds.

Temperatures through the period should return to below normal,
especially on the daytime high side, as heights and thicknesses
fall and as cloud cover and moisture increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Will run with VFR TAFs and south winds generally around 11 kts
this TAF cycle. Thunderstorms that form on the Raton Mesa will
likely dissipate before reaching KLBB and KPVW tonight. Wind
speeds could increase at the surface and/or just off the deck
overnight as surface pressures fall ahead of an upper level
disturbance, but confidence in the need for higher than 11 kts
surface winds or for a LLWS mention a bit too low to insert
mention at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07