Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KLUB 211957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
257 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

The overall forecast pattern and evolution remain quite consistent
with warm and generally breezy conditions through at least Monday
as upper level ridging translates across the region early in the
weekend followed by southwesterly mid and upper level flow heading
into Monday as an upper level low takes shape across the desert
southwest. Record high temperatures remain a distinct possibility,
especially on Friday. Tuesday is now a bit problematic with some
differences in timing around a cold frontal passage. Have sided
with delaying its entry into the forecast area by 12 hours or so.
Monday afternoon remains interesting with a dryline setting up
and shifting to the Rolling Plains with possible thunderstorm
initiation in the eastern column or two of the forecast area.
Finally, the development of the southwestern trough into a closed
low remains favored by the models with that low progged to track
to the east/east-northeast toward West Texas. This scenario
continues to favor the possibility for a more widespread
precipitation event. At this time it looks like Tuesday may end
up being relatively precip-free depending upon where the back edge
of a baroclinic leaf or warm conveyor belt sets up. As the low
moves east precip chances would increase Tuesday night into
Wednesday and beyond. However, of particular note is the 12Z ECMWF
trending toward a more open solution with this trough which would
unfortunately minimize widespread precip chances.


Breezy to windy conditions are expected Friday through Monday
minus Saturday (due to a weak cold front moving into and stalling
across the area). There is some concern about high clouds limiting
wind speeds through this period, but with warm and dry air
remaining in place at least elevated fire weather conditions area
likely, especially on the Caprock. The best chance for critical
remains Friday afternoon. We will issue a Fire Weather Watch for
that period with the afternoon forecast issuance.




07 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.