226
FXUS64 KLUB 110544
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1244 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

 - Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms may make it into
   the northwestern part of the forecast area tonight with strong
   winds at times.

 - Rain chances increase this weekend with heavy rainfall and
   flooding being possible threats.

 - Seasonably hot to end the week then cooler conditions expected
   this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Remainder of tonight: Boosted PoPs overnight across our NW zones
for scattered to numerous light showers and some thunderstorms.
Sufficient DCAPE with this high-based convection is supporting
brief and localized wind gusts of 50-60 mph along with weak heat
bursts at times. This activity will gradually dwindle through the
pre-dawn hours as it reaches the southern South Plains.

Friday and beyond: Flat ridging aloft stretching from NM to AZ
and off the SoCal coast at 03z will continue to shrink and retreat
westward through the next 24 hours or so in response to a
progressive series of deepening mid/upper level shortwave troughs
moving over the northern Rockies. This evolution will bring a
slightly cooler day today compared to yesterday with highs
generally in the low 90s. A broad surface trough stretching from
KS back into the TX Panhandle will maintain south-southwesterly
surface flow today, with another round of showers and
thunderstorms expected to develop along the trough axis by late
afternoon. These initial storms are likely to begin well to our
north, and with little focus or forcing for ascent locally, will
maintain a dry forecast across our area during the daytime hours.
Later on, a fairly subtle shortwave disturbance aloft will likely
cause diurnal convection near the Raton Mesa to shift
southeastward, then combine with the Panhandle activity and grow
upscale into a cluster or MCS which is then expected to propagate
southward into our forecast area this evening. Given that large-
scale forcing for ascent and bulk shear magnitudes are both
progged to be relatively weak, there is uncertainty regarding how
long into the overnight hours convection will continue. Still,
there is good model consensus that the cluster/MCS will likely
make it into northern portions of the South Plains and Rolling
Plains around midnight before activity becomes more scattered for
the rest of the night. The severe weather potential will be
generally be limited by weak shear magnitudes, but some gusts up
to 60 mph along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible with
the strongest activity this evening through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The digging shortwave trough mentioned above is progged to erode the
eastern flank of an upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest
while merging with a pre-existing trough located over southeast
Texas with a resultant increase in mid-level moisture and shower and
thunderstorm chances as early as Friday evening, although the best
chances come Saturday following a period of mid-level moisture
advection and further retrograding of the western upper ridge. That
pattern remains fairly stagnant through the weekend and possibly
into Monday or Tuesday. At that point there are signs that the
eastern subtropical ridge will attempt to build westward with some
drying in the mid-levels, but another trough moving across the
central/northern Plains will try to send a cold front southward down
the High Plains, possibly become a focus for convective development
midweek. As a result, precip chances through the week look fine with
the highest being over the weekend. Increasing PWATs to 90th
percentile and weak flow and shear point to a flooding threat and
will continue to monitor as the event unfolds.

Temperatures through the period should return to below normal,
especially on the daytime high side, as heights and thicknesses
fall and as cloud cover and moisture increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR with generally light SSW winds. Numerous -SHRA and occasional
TS currently 40NW PVW moving SE should reduce in coverage as they
reach PVW and LBB in the next couple hours, but not enough to omit
some -SHRA mention through the pre-dawn hours. A larger round of
TS is likely near the end of this TAF period (06Z Saturday) which
will be addressed in later TAFs.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...93