Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 162027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
327 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Our period of dry and windy weather will persist into early next
week. A mid/upper level low over north central Kansas this
afternoon is causing today`s dry and windy conditions. Sunset and
further movement of the low away from the area will see these
conditions abate this evening. Saturday will see the area between
systems with more quiescent conditions prevailing, although winds
may become a bit breezy during the afternoon near the New Mexico
state line. The next system remains progged to move onto the
southern to central High Plains Sunday afternoon then tracking
across northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas during the day Monday.
Majority of the models favoring ramping winds up by mid-afternoon
Sunday, although enough members point to a slower solution that
confidence in timing remains a bit low. The faster solutions point
to the possibility of high wind condtions across the western third
to half of the forecast area, but given the caveat confidence is
not quite high enough to issue a watch at this time. Winds will
should stay up through much of the night then increase again
Monday morning, this time from more of a northwesterly direction.
After this low moves off the Plains things look to become fairly
quiet for a couple of days. Short wave ridging moving overhead
Thursday should lead to warm and breezy conditions. This will be
followed by the next upper trough that currently is progged to
stay open, hopefully keeping winds from becoming excessive.


Elevated fire weather conditions ongoing should dissipate with
lower wind speeds and higher humidity with or shortly after

Sunday remains the focus as a strong mid to upper level low is
progged to move across the northern Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle/
southwestern Kansas. This will be a favorable latitude to ramp
wind speeds up across the forecast area. The main caveat is that
models are still wrestling a bit with timing with some favoring a
slightly slower solution that would bump the main increase in wind
speed potential into the evening which would result in a lower
potential for fire weather conditions. Will maintain Fire Weather
Watch for Sunday as-is.


Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>043.



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