Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 230551

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1251 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

VFR with gusty SW winds by midday. Recent trends suggest a very
slim chance of early A.M. low clouds near CDs, so earlier mention
was removed.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

Upper level high pressure ridge overhead this evening will shift
east with increasing southwest flow aloft - and increasing high
level clouds. Also will see another low level jet developing
mainly late tonight - expect we may remain mixed enough to avoid a
Low Level Wind Shear remark. Low risk for a low cloud deck late
tonight edging near KCDS - solutions keep just east - but adding
scattered one thousand foot layer to this forecast. Wind will
increase Friday by midday with deepening surface trough - surface
flow should veer more southwest/westerly again as well. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

The forecast remains focused on two items, the first being warm
and mainly dry conditions into early next week and the second
being precipitation potential early to middle of next week.

Models remain in good agreement with upper level ridging shifting
to the east of the region early Friday being replaced by
southwesterly mid to upper flow as an upper level trough dives
down the West Coast into the desert southwest. This pattern will
induce the development of a lee surface trough Friday with this
trough eventually turning into more of a dryline after a couple
days of low level moisture advection into the Rolling Plains and
maybe the South Plains. No significant changes were made to this
part of the forecast. Friday still looks to be the warmest day
with record warmth likely and the possibility for wind advisory
level wind speeds across the northwestern zones in response to a
low amplitude short wave trough translating across the Rockies.
The dryline is progged to get pushed toward the Caprock escarpment
and maybe onto the Rolling Plains Monday afternoon, and the
potential continues to exist for convective initiation to occur in
the eastern zones Friday afternoon.

Beyond Monday the forecast remains murky as models continue to
vacillate with the handling of the closed low that over the desert
southwest alluded to in the previous paragraph. After being
consistent for several runs in keeping this low closed as it
ejected eastward the models trended toward an open trough with
yesterday`s 12Z ECM and today`s 00Z GFS, Canadian, etc. That was
turned upside down with a bit of a reversion to maintaining the
closed low, albeit in a more positively tilted fashion than
depicted yesterday. Am not too inclined to lurch toward higher
precip chances given this uncertainty. Will trim back from model
initialized PoP`s more in line with MOS numbers. This idea has
been reinforced this afternoon with today`s 12Z ECM that is again
trending toward an open wave ejecting across the southern Plains.

Still on track for critical conditions developing Friday
afternoon, mainly to the west of the Caprock escarpment as winds
increase in response to a mid level short wave trough moving
across the Colorado Rockies. Will maintain the Red Flag Warning in
its current configuration.

Deep southwesterly flow will remain established almost uninterrupted
through Tuesday. A weak cold front moving into the area the only
exception. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday each hold the potential for
at least elevated conditions.


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.



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