Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 140528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1228 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with surface
winds becoming sustained around 15-20 kts from the S-SW in the


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/

A dry forecast continues as we remain in a fairly progressive
pattern through the week. The main weather concern will continue
to be fire weather, especially on Friday.

Northwest flow aloft will continue through Wednesday ahead of a
shortwave ridge that will move across the region early Thursday
morning. A surface trough will develop across New Mexico and the
models are trying to pull low-level moisture into the area
starting late Wednesday. It appears that the GFS continues to
bring in dewpoints in the low to mid 30s with the ECMWF about 5-10
degrees lower through the day. Expect better moisture return to
develop early Thursday morning as a low-level jet sets up across
the region. The passage of the shortwave ridge will transition
flow aloft to the southwest through the day Thursday and surface
winds will also swing to the southwest. Conditions will not favor
the development of a sharp dryline but we should see dewpoints
gradually mix out through the day with breezy south to
southwesterly wind. This will result in a struggle for RH values
to fall below 20 percent for Fire Weather concerns and models
continue to struggle with how strong wind speeds will be during
the day Thursday.

As we move through Thursday, a trough that pushed onshore from the
West Coast will deepen into a closed low as it swings out across
the Rockies late Thursday into early Friday. The good news is that
the timing of this will be in the overnight hours so we don`t
expect to see the West Texas wind machine crank up as strong as it
could be. The flip side is that we will still see a west wind
through the day Friday which will scour any remaining moisture
well east of the area and drop dewpoints into the single digits.
Friday will need to be watched for critical fire weather
conditions if the current model forecasts hold true. The main
concern is wind speeds during the day Friday; there is still quite
a range of potential speeds through the day but expect that we
will start to highlight the fire potential as we get closer.

A cold front will push across the area early Saturday morning and
the GFS is trying to develop precipitation along and immediately
behind the front. Any moisture needed for precipitation will have
to come with the front because of the dry conditions ahead of the
front so have pulled PoPs out of the forecast. This front stalls
out across Central Texas and mixes northward fairly fast as a warm
front resulting in dewpoints climbing through the night Saturday
into Sunday morning. Moisture then mixes out as the dryline
surges east Sunday morning but wind speeds will not be as strong
on Sunday as on Friday. Another weak front will push across the
area late Sunday into Monday morning.





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