Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS64 KLUB 210446 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1146 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Wind
speeds will increase to around 15 kts from the south to southeast
in the afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

Models are in good agreement this afternoon and have shown some
good run-to-run continuity as well. This has led to few changes to
the afternoon forecast. Upper level ridging over the Great Basin
to Baja will shift slowly eastward through Friday with the axis of
the ridge passing overhead Friday morning. This will lead to a
corresponding increase in temperatures each day through Friday.
The potential still exists for record high temperatures Thursday
and Friday. Only slightly cooler temperatures are then in store
for the weekend as heights/thicknesses lower modestly in the
interface between a developing trough over the West Coast and the
ridge to our east. The development of the western trough will
bring the most interesting aspect to the forecast. A persistent
southerly low level flow and southwesterly mid level flow will
transport low and possibly mid level moisture into the eastern
part of the forecast area as early as Sunday. Monday afternoon
could become a bit interesting with models now hinting at the
potential for thunderstorms. Much will depend on how far west the
low level moisture will hang on, but current trends suggest at
least slight chance mention justified Monday afternoon and
evening. Tuesday`s forecast becomes more questionable as models
begin to diverge on the handling of the western trough. Of note
the models are trending toward a further south and stronger
solution that could end up being favorable for a more widespread
precipitation event later next week. Bears watch, but until then
slight chance mention for Tuesday will suffice.




14 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.