Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 212321
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
621 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The August 22-23, 2018 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
A complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to affect
northern Oklahoma after 05Z tonight. Greatest confidence for
impacts are at KWWR and KPNC. There is a low chance terminals as
far south as KCSM to KOKC could be impacted, but the probability
is too low to be included in the TAFs. Temporary gusty winds and
reduction in visibility is possible with the showers/storms.

Otherwise, easterly winds will gradually become southeasterly
through the TAF period. Winds may become gusty across western
terminals by tomorrow afternoon.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The next three mornings will bring chances for rain and thunder to
northern Oklahoma. This is because of upslope flow into moistening
mid-levels over the Colorado High plains on the northern reaches
of the strong upper high. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected
during the preceding afternoons and prevailing weak westerly flow
is expected to bring the storms/rain into southern Kansas and part
of northern Oklahoma. Recent forecast trends have been to
intensify the upper ridge more quickly over Oklahoma which would
diminish rain chances farther south of the northern Oklahoma
border areas. At present, the expectation is for scattered
thunderstorms lasting a bit beyond sunrise Wednesday through
Friday mornings. Because of the northward tendency of the upper
ridge, subsequent forecasts will likely adjust coverage or
placement of pops, but areas south of I-40 will have little chance
for rain through the weekend as the heat intensifies. South winds
will begin to gust from Thursday as humidities drop to around 20
percent Friday and Saturday over parts of northern Texas and
southwestern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, increased moisture over central
and eastern Oklahoma will take heat index values over 100 by the
end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  88  70  93 /  10  10  20  10
Hobart OK         69  92  73  98 /  10  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  95  73  99 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           66  87  69  95 /  40  40  40  10
Ponca City OK     66  81  67  92 /  40  50  50  60
Durant OK         69  91  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/10/10


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