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000
FXUS64 KOUN 290342 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
942 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

Only light precipitation in the form of mostly rain/drizzle and
sleet remains across our FA tonight as the mid to upper trough
progresses eastward. A dusting of sleet/snow will remain possible
near Kay County for another hour where temps have dropped to
freezing but even this is a stretch. The winter advisory has been
allowed to expire. It still appears at least some patchy freezing
fog will try to develop across northwestern OK where snowpack
is present and some clearing may occur in combination with
decreasing wind speeds. This will be watched closely overnight for
a potential advisory. Otherwise, expect temps to drop to near or
below freezing mainly along and north of I-44 by sunrise. Have
increased low temps across the NW a few degrees since it should
remain mostly cloudy there through morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

Areas of snow continue in northern and western Oklahoma, but radar
reflectivity intensities are coming down and low-level
temperatures are warming back up as the storm system moves east.
Will continue with areas of snow this evening, but amounts will be
tempered by these factors. We may still see an inch or two in some
areas. Since the heavies snowfall isuntil morning done in
northwest Oklahoma, we have converted the warning back to an
advisory. We have also extended the eastern part of the advisory
until 9 PM CST since snow will persist after 6 PM. Farther east
and south, the chance of accumulating snow is lower, and will not
expand the geography of the advisory.

Skies should begin to clear somewhat in the west as the storm
system moves east, but with fresh snow cover, clearing skies and
light winds, will have the potential of freezing fog Wednesday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

The upper-level wave that is bringing the current precipitation will
continue to move through and bring additional precip chances
Thursday into Friday for mainly southern parts of Oklahoma and most
of western north Texas. There is a slight potential for some wintry
precipitation in the western portions of our Texas counties Thursday
morning. Chances for a wintry mix will be brief, however, before
temperatures increase and only rain remains.

Following the trough and cold front, warmer temperatures and calm
weather is expected for the weekend. Next chance of precipitation
appears to in northwestern Oklahoma with the next upper-level trough
moving through next Tuesday into Wednesday. One bit of concern that
may throw a wrench in the forecast is some uncertainty with the long-
term models hinting at an upper-level cutoff low over the weekend.
The low would be generated over the Rockies and dig to the southwest
over the Baja Peninsula, where it will become cutoff from the
primary flow over the weekend. This cutoff low is expected to then
be reingested into the flow early next week as the next trough
begins to move onshore from the Pacific. The models are pretty
strongly in agreement on the scenario, however any variation in
timing could shift the precipitation chances, and will need to be
monitored going forward.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

Poor flight conditions are expected through tonight and into Wed
morning over all terminals. Precipitation is expected over PNC and
OKC/OUN until 03-06Z or so, mainly in the form of RA/DZ. Some
RASN, however, will be possible over PNC. Expect BR near WWR and
CSM after 06Z. VSBY may briefly drop to less than 1SM at WWR,
which may result in icing below 010 or so. Flight conditions will
improve after 15Z Wed to MVFR cigs, with decreasing north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  40  31  44  29 / 100  80   0   0
Hobart OK         41  29  46  27 / 100  40   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  56  33  49  32 /  70  40   0   0
Gage OK           33  25  41  22 / 100  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     38  28  43  26 / 100 100   0   0
Durant OK         52  39  48  37 /  90  70  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...03