Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 301952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
252 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023


(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Isolated to widely scattered, diurnal convection will continue
across southeast/east central Oklahoma this afternoon. The primary
hazard with any thunderstorms will be brief, heavy rainfall and
gusty winds.

Thunderstorms have started to develop across the higher terrain to
the west. The remnants of the High Plains convection will move to
the east toward the Southern Plains tonight. The convection should
decay as it approaches the 100th meridian given the low-level jet
will remain to the west. As a result, the probability decreases
markedly with eastward extent from northwest Oklahoma. Any remnant
convection is not expected to be severe.

Otherwise, a mid-level ridge axis across the Southern Plains should
limit daytime convection on Wednesday with only a slight chance
(~15%) at any given location. There is a chance the remnants of
tonight`s convection may serve as a focus for development tomorrow
afternoon, but the probability does not appear too high given the
mid-level ridge in place. Consequently, temperatures will be
seasonably warm from the mid to upper 80s deg F.



(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Another complex of thunderstorms is forecast to develop late
Wednesday across the High Plains. This complex has a higher
probability of making eastward progress into Oklahoma early
Thursday given the eastward shift of both the low-level jet and
mid-level ridge axis from the previous night. There also appears
to be a subtle PV anomaly/shortwave trough associated with this
convection, which increases the probability of eastward progress.
The remnants of this feature will result in a continued chance for
showers and thunderstorms during the day Thursday.

By Friday into the upcoming weekend, the subtropical jet is
progged to lift into the Southern Plains with Oklahoma and north
Texas on the northeast periphery of the stronger mid-level flow.

Combined with shortwave troughs rotating around a broad, upper-
level low across the southwest U.S., persist large-scale ascent
will be present across the Southern Plains. The thermodynamic
environment will be weakly capped with moderate precipitable water
values (~1.5"). As a result, convective coverage should increase
by Friday and continue through the weekend. While lower-end severe
weather is not out of the question given the increased vertical
wind shear, the primary hazard will be heavy rainfall and
localized flooding.

The subtropical jet is progged to shift back to the south by late
into the weekend into early next week. As a result, the
probability of showers/thunderstorms decreases; however, a
persistent weakness/upper-level low will result in a continued
chance of showers and thunderstorms (especially during the daytime
with diurnal heating) through the foreseeable future.



(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

VFR conditions and light wind expected to prevail, although there
may be areas of shallow fog around tomorrow morning. Duration and
location will preclude mentioning this issuance. Will mention
PROB30 SHRA/TSRA across western Oklahoma tonight with potential
for dying complex to approach from the west. There are signals for
another complex to develop over southeast KS late today and try
to surge southward toward KPNC. Confidence too low to add to this
forecast, however.


Oklahoma City OK  64  85  66  83 /  10  20  10  40
Hobart OK         64  87  64  83 /  20  10  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  65  88  66  86 /   0  10  10  20
Gage OK           62  85  62  79 /  40  20  40  50
Ponca City OK     63  86  64  85 /  10  20  10  50
Durant OK         64  88  65  87 /  20  10   0  20




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