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000
FXUS64 KOUN 032015
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
315 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

An MCV is present near Durham this afternoon, and is moving SSE.
Visible imagery suggests minimal cu is trying to develop ahead of it
under cirrus shield so have only kept SChcs in for this afternoon.
Precip coverage should remain limited at best for the rest of the
day if any manages to develop. Late tonight into early tomorrow
morning, thetae ridge axis will continue to shift eastward and
decent WAA will develop from 09-15Z near I-35. This should result in
at least showers developing through the morning hours, and at least
low coverage could extend as far south as the Red River just before
lunchtime. The highest PoPs are still expected late Tue into early
Wed morning as a mid level shortwave trough moves off the high
plains and into northern and central OK. One or two complexes of
storms will be possible. Temps will remain seasonably cool tomorrow,
with a surface high lingering to our NE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Shower and thunderstorm activity may linger a bit across eastern
zones Wednesday morning as the shortwave passes by to our east
but should diminish by the afternoon. Models show another round of
showers and storms possible Wednesday night into Thursday
associated with another round of warm air advection as a weak
shortwave moves southward out of Kansas. This round will likely be
a bit further east, with highest chances of rain focused over our
eastern zones.

Later Thursday into the weekend, the upper ridge expands eastward
over the southern plains. This will increase our temperatures to
near or slightly above average. Rain chances will decrease during
this period for most of the area, with the exception of far northern
Oklahoma where slight chances of showers and thunderstorms remain
during the evening each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Expect from mid to high clouds through 21Z or so as showers
continue to dissipate west of WWR and debris shifts southeastward.
Winds will generally remain northerly. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected after 06Z tonight, mainly over central
OK. Have included PROB30s for most probable terminals to be
impacted by them like OKC/OUN and PNC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  83  64  83 /  30  40  50  30
Hobart OK         65  89  65  91 /  10  10  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  67  91  69  96 /   0   0  20  10
Gage OK           61  88  61  87 /  20  20  50  10
Ponca City OK     60  81  62  81 /  20  20  60  30
Durant OK         65  90  67  89 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...03