Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 280807

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
307 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

...New LONG TERM...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

A shortwave trough digging from the Central Plains interacting with
ample mid-level moisture expected to produce scattered light rain
across much of our area starting early this morning.  HRRR Model
forecast soundings showing fairly dry air from the mid-levels down
to the surface across northern and central Oklahoma, so some
uncertainty if the lower-levels will moisten sufficiently for rain
to reach the ground. Radar already showing virga across northern
Oklahoma.  Will keep very low rain POPs across central and northern
Oklahoma for tonight although it could be mostly virga with little
rain reaching the ground.  However, forecast soundings suggesting
ample saturation of the lower levels in time across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas, where rain chances will be
highest.  Could also see some elevated thunderstorms develop across
our southwest which will be in a more unstable environment, although
MUCAPE values suggesting weak instability for storms to grown in.
Latest HRRR appears to have a good handle on the evolution and
timing with the rain and storms moving out of our area into northern
Texas by noontime.  Although we`ll see another warm afternoon,
temperatures are still expected to be about 5 degrees cooler than
average for late June days.


(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

South winds finally kick in on Thursday as our forecast area returns
to hot summerlike temperatures, although the triple digit heat may
not come until early next week.  Could still see a ridge across the
Colorado Rockies start to flatten into a shortwave and bring
rain/storm chances across the Central into the Southern Plains this
weekend, with a backdoor cold front coming through Saturday night as
per the GFS and Canadian NH models.  However, the ECMWF remains
inconsistent with the other models about a surface boundary coming
through. Still keeping storm POPs in the grids for Friday night
across northern Oklahoma, and becoming more widespread Saturday into
Sunday night with the best overall chances on Saturday night.  With
a stronger moisture return across southeast Oklahoma by Saturday and
more moderate surface based instability, can`t rule out the
possibility of stronger storms developing there.  Pressure heights
start rising on Monday as an upper high "heat dome" starts to build
overhead, bringing back those dreaded triple digit afternoon
temperatures for early next week.


(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

A few showers are expected to move southward overnight. The most
likely area will be across far SW OK and near SPS. Otherwise,
increasing mid to high clouds will spread overhead. Winds will
generally remain northeasterly and light. Skies should begin to
clear by late Tuesday morning.


Oklahoma City OK  85  63  89  66 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         87  64  92  68 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  88  64  94  67 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           86  62  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         86  63  90  66 /   0   0   0   0




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