Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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111
FXUS64 KOUN 130442
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1042 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Very strong north winds will arrive into northern Oklahoma before
sunrise and spread over all of Oklahoma Thursday morning.
Sustained winds over 35kts with gusts over 50kts are expected over
the western third of Oklahoma and Wichita Falls, TX. MVFR and some
IFR ceilings and visiblities in fog are expected behind the front
over central Oklahoma during the day Thursday. Gusty winds will
persist into Thursday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 909 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018/

UPDATE...
Light rain and drizzle still look possible across portions of the
fa late this evening and overnight. Made some minor adjustments to
PoPs. With clouds, temperatures are slow to drop in portions of
the fa so have raised low temperatures a few degrees across mainly
the SE third or so of the fa.

Still looks like cold front will move into and across the fa
Thursday leading to a windy and colder day. Will leave headlines
alone for now with a High Wind warning and wind advisories for the
strong winds tomorrow into Friday. Will also leave the winter
storm watch as is and let the overnight shift look at all the OZ
model runs before making a decision. Still some uncertainty as to
where exactly a band of heavier snow could set up near the upper
low.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Very strong north winds will arrive into northern Oklahoma before
sunrise and spread over all of Oklahoma Thursday morning.
Sustained winds over 35kts with gusts over 50kts are expected over
the western third of Oklahoma and Wichita Falls, TX. MVFR and some
IFR ceilings and visiblities in fog are expected behind the front
over central Oklahoma during the day Thursday. Gusty winds will
persist beyond 132400.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern will be some impactful weather on Thursday
(and somewhat Friday), namely: 1) high winds, and 2) rain / snow
potential

Highest confidence is in the wind forecast. Continuing to use MAV
guidance for Thursday and Friday which shows sustained winds of 30-
40 mph across western Oklahoma and western north Texas along with
gusts up to possibly 60 mph (especially in those southwestern
counties). With this high confidence, we`ll be upgrading the high
wind watch to a warning and adding a wind advisory eastward of that.

Regarding precipitation, models have shifted slightly further
southward. This reduces our snow chances. Decided to keep some
mention of brief rain/snow mix, but taking out any accumulations for
now. Will leave the winter watch as is, partly due to some
uncertainty in the placement of the system and partly because of how
the high winds might interact with even a small amount of snow.

With gusty winds continuing into Friday morning (when RH values are
expected to drop into the 20s) , parts of western Oklahoma and
western north Texas may see elevated fire weather conditions.

Beyond Friday, the forecast looks fairly mild into midweek next week.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  44  45  32  49 /  20  70  50  20
Hobart OK         39  45  31  53 /  10  50  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  44  49  36  53 /  20  80  60  20
Gage OK           33  43  24  53 /   0  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     40  45  30  49 /  20  60  40  20
Durant OK         54  59  37  48 /  50  90  80  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for OKZ007-
     008-012-013-018>020-024>026.

     High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for
     OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021>023-027-033>039-044-045.

     Wind Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to noon CST Friday for
     OKZ030>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to noon CST Friday for OKZ028-
     029.

TX...High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for
     TXZ083>090.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for TXZ089-090.

&&

$$

23/09/09



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