Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 052343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
543 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

...New AVIATION...

(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Rain will continue to gradually end across the fa the rest of this
afternoon as the upper low continues to move eastward. Sfc high will
move into the area causing light winds tonight. Clouds are also
expected to decrease in some areas tonight. With decreasing clouds
and light winds, some fog could develop later tonight into Saturday
morning approximately the northern two-thirds of OK. Temperatures
are expected to fall into the 30s across the fa tonight.

Models show shortwave ridging moving into the region by Saturday
with southerly flow returning to the area. Warmer temperatures are
expected tomorrow with highs in the 60s.


(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 352 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Longwave ridging aloft should maintain dry conditions through the
first half of next week across our area.  High surface pressure
settling across the U.S. Southeast expected to feed its circulation
into a deepening surface low moving across the Central provinces of
Canada, resulting in a tight isobaric band extending from the Upper
Midwest down to the Southern Plains.  The result will be increasing
south winds across our area and rather windy from Sunday through the
middle of next week.  Expecting northwest Oklahoma to be quite
breezy on Sunday with up to 30 mph windspeeds.  We`ll see a low-
level jet develop Sunday night and increase every night through much
of next week.  Although the upper ridge expected to dirty up with
high clouds, the pressure gradient at the surface should be
sufficient to vertically mix to 850 mb each day and into the low
level jet flow increasing our wind gusts down at the surface. By
Tuesday into Wednesday with a 45-50 kt low-level jet within the 925-
850 mb layer, mixing could result in up to 50 mph wind gusts or even
a little higher.  At this point in time, Wind Advisories would
likely be issued for Tuesday and perhaps even Wednesday.  The NBM
continues to be weak biased with the winds, so again used a more
robust CONSMOS in the wind grids for Sunday & Monday afternoons,
then Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon.

The warm advection from our strong southerly flow will also maintain
a warming trend with unseasonably warmer temperatures, as all of our
area should see afternoon highs in the 70s by mid-week.  However,
won`t see much sunshine during the day especially by Tuesday, so do
have a little bit of uncertainty there.  We should also see a fairly
strong low-level moisture transport coming up from the gulf, forming
a dryline by Wednesday, although some model uncertainty how far to
our west that it will set up.  Upper ridging will end by Wednesday
as our flow aloft shifts southwesterly in response to a large
amplitude trough that will start digging across the U.S. Southwest,
with a surface low and Pacific cold front to our north across the
Central Plains.  Although the models start pushing the cold front
through on Thursday, the upper flow pattern could hang up the front
or perhaps slowly move it into our area, so a little bit of
uncertainty there.  With moisture already in place and a surface
boundary, will keep low POPs for TSRA late Wednesday through
Thursday.  Short-wave ripples within our southwest flow aloft may
provide some vorticity forcing to maintain low POPS for TSRA into
Friday as well.

With increasing south winds and very dry air advecting across the
Texas Panhandle, the fire danger will increase Sunday afternoon
across northwest Oklahoma, as well as across western Oklahoma and
far western north Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.


(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

As lower level ridge settles in over central and southwest
portions of Oklahoma after 06Z, along with sct-clr skies,
widespread fog is expected to develop in the 08-10Z timeframe and
likely become dense toward 12Z through at least 15-16Z. Model
soundings support scenario of very shallow fog, but significant
restrictions nonetheless. With winds increasing only slowly
tomorrow, and low sun angle, at least MVFR fog restrictions will
likely persist until 18Z at terminals where if forms.


Oklahoma City OK  35  62  39  65 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         34  63  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  37  65  38  66 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           33  65  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     34  63  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         38  64  38  66 /  10   0   0   0




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