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445
FXUS64 KOUN 090432 AAC
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1032 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

.AVIATION...
09/06Z TAFs. Little change from previous forecast with VFR
dominating forecast period. MVFR cigs will be mentioned at KPNC
for a few hours after fropa. Strong northerly winds tomorrow,
subsiding after 00Z. Light SHRA possible near KSPS before 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1005 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/

UPDATE...
Lowered hourly temperatures across portions of northern Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
Light winds and a dry airmass has resulted in appreciate cooling
across northern Oklahoma this evening. Observations from the
Oklahoma Mesonet indicate a steep, nocturnal inversion at some
stations with 5 to 10+ deg F temperature increase from 1.5 m and 9
m.

The steepest inversions (and coldest surface temperatures) are
where the winds are very light or calm. Therefore, any increase in
wind speed should raise temperatures due to vertical mixing. This
(obviously) cannot be captured precisely in the hourly
temperature grids. Nevertheless, opted to lower hourly
temperatures across northern Oklahoma to account for these trends.
Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast for
tonight

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/

AVIATION...
09/00Z TAFs. Will keep mention of MVFR cigs at KPNC behind cold
front tomorrow morning, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Strong
northerly wind shift will spread over the region tomorrow,
entering northwest Oklahoma near 12Z and pass through KSPS by 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns continue to be with regards to precip chances Monday
afternoon into Tuesday across Red River Valley.

Surface trough across western Oklahoma will hang around the area
as an area of surface low pressure moves out of southeast Colorado
toward western Oklahoma tonight. This is in advance of
approaching storm system that will bring parts of southern
Oklahoma and north Texas some rain by late tomorrow.

As we go through tonight and tomorrow the surface low will shift
east across the area with breezy and mild weather replaced by cool
and breezy conditions by Monday afternoon. Although the surface
cold front will push well south of the area by Monday afternoon,
precip is expected to develop along and elevated boundary (near
700mb) as upper trough swings through the southern Plains. There
still appears to be a low chance of some light freezing rain on
the back side of this system Tuesday morning across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas as temps drop to near freezing,
but does not look to have a significant impact at this time.

Another upper wave will move across the area by the latter part of
the work week, but will be lacking moisture and other than
perhaps some sprinkles or virga, looks to go through dry with
little more than an associated wind shift.

A bit stronger system will move through the central/southern
Plains and may bring some light snow to far northern Oklahoma
Sunday, otherwise dry and seasonal temperatures expected through
much of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  47  50  29  47 /   0   0  10   0
Hobart OK         48  51  28  48 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  55  59  33  48 /   0  20  30  10
Gage OK           39  44  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     40  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         56  61  32  45 /   0  20  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/11