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000
FXUS64 KOUN 201119
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR will apply today. A few cumulus are expected to develop over
western OK near WWR, and perhaps over northern OK near PNC.
Otherwise, expect increasing south winds around 10 to 15 kt during
the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Fairly active week continues with at least low chance PoPs each day.
Highest chances will be this weekend and early next week.

Introducing low PoPs for Thursday. Models are starting to show some
hints of isolated convection in the panhandles into western
Oklahoma. With an extrememely moist and unstable environment
combined with strong daytime heating near the dryline and a hint of
a shortwave passing through, this scenario of isolated to widely
scattered severe storms seems reasonable. Low level jet is forecast
to strengthen overnight, potentially aiding convection as it moves
into western Oklahoma. Deep layer shear, however, looks to be
fairly weak and there will be a strong cap to overcome.

A very similar scenario looks to play out Friday, though a bit
further south (as we transition into southwest flow) and with a
slightly stronger QPF signal in the models.

Southwest surface winds and downslope flow on Friday across western
Oklahoma should aid in producing toasty temperatures and gusty winds.

A cold front will approach northwest Oklahoma on Saturday. Most
models are producing convection along and just ahead of the front
Saturday afternoon and evening as a shortwave moves through. A few
also hint at storms forming in the warm sector out ahead of the
front where daytime heating and upper level support could help break
the weak cap.

Uncertainty increases Sunday forward as models diverge on timing
when the front comes down. An upper level low moving across the
central plains will keep PoPs in the forecast Sunday and Monday,
though uncertainty in the placement of the front when the low moves
over translates into uncertainty in where storms will initiate.

Low rain chances will extend through at least mid week next week.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  74  95  74 /   0  30   0  20
Hobart OK         96  74 100  73 /   0  20  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  99  77  99  76 /   0  10   0  20
Gage OK           93  69 100  71 /   0  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     91  71  95  74 /   0  30   0   0
Durant OK         93  75  92  76 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/99/14