Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 230900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021


(Today and tonight)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

Short term weather impacts will be limited, although hotter
conditions are expected today.

Looping satellite-derived precipitable water imagery, an axis of
returning moisture is evident extending into north Texas and western
Oklahoma. The more substantial low-level moisture is on the eastern
side of this axis deeper into Texas as is evident by more
extensive stratus now approaching the Dallas/Fort Worth area.
This stratus will continue to advect northward into our area
early this morning. Moisture should be thin enough that deeper
mixing should allow ceilings to rise and eventually scatter out
from about midday onward.

Surface dew points will be in the low-mid 70s. This, coupled with
hotter temperatures, will bring heat index values over 100F for
roughly the western two-thirds of the forecast area. Heat index
values could locally approach traditional Heat Advisory criteria
of 105F, particularly across north-central Oklahoma. At this time,
given the marginality of the traditional criteria, and breezy
south winds holding wet bulb globe temperatures (a more complete
assessment of heat stress potential) down in the lower category,
a Heat Advisory won`t be needed for today.

Veered downslope flow and subsidence from mean ridging will preclude
any convection across our area. Some convection may initiate near
the surface trough in the panhandles, but substantial surface based
inhibition would mean the only chance for anything making it into
our area tonight would be in a diminished state (i.e., midlevel
remnant convection). If this happened, it would be across
northwest Oklahoma generally after midnight.



(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

Surface temperatures and dewpoints will continue to increase into
Thursday afternoon as a lee low moves into SW KS. Breezy south/ssw
winds around 15 to 20 kt are expected to develop with a fairly
tight pressure gradient present. Heat indices will likely exceed
advisory criteria across a good portion of north central OK so we
may end up with a headline overnight Thu AM. Some moist convection
may develop within surface trough extending through the TX
panhandle into NW OK thru early evening Thu, and perhaps overnight
but coverage should remain very low given warm mid to upper temps
and little to no other forcing.

Friday will have a similar pattern to Thursday, with a prefrontal
trough becoming more pronounced across the same region. A cold
front will also begin to progress southward overnight nearing the
KS/OK border across NW OK. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon and
evening hours over our northern zones, and some strong to severe
storms could be possible within a narrow axis of moderate
instability and increasing effective deep shear. Precip chances
will increase overnight with a fairly stout LLJ developing and a
shortwave trough/height falls. A severe wind threat could continue
into the overnight hours. The first round of precip should wane
thru late morning Saturday over central and northeastern OK.

During the day Saturday the effective cold front should end up
somewhere near the I-44 corridor. Moist convection will likely
redevelop during the afternoon and evening and then push south
again overnight. It`s unclear how much of a severe threat will be
present Saturday depending on cloud cover, remnant convective
debris, etc. However, effective deep layer shear should be
sufficient for organization and would suspect at least 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE will be present within warm sector. Another concern
will be localized heavy rainfall as a mid to upper trough axis
swings over the central CONUS and sfc boundaries continue to
impact our region. At least SChc PoPs will continue into next week
as an upper trough remains in place from the upper midwest into
the northern southern plains. Below avg temps are also expected
with this pattern from the weekend into early next week.


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 922 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight with a light
to moderate south wind. Rather strong winds above the surface
may create low level wind shear overnight into early Wednesday,
especially across northern Oklahoma. As the humid air mass over
Texas advects northward, MVFR ceilings should develop near or
shorty after sunrise Wednesday. Cloud heights will generally
improve through the morning with VFR conditions by afternoon. A
gusty south wind is also expected.


Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

An Upper Air flight is not planned for today.


Oklahoma City OK  94  76  96  77 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         98  76 100  77 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  76  99  77 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK          101  78 102  75 /   0  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     94  77  97  77 /   0  10  10  20
Durant OK         93  76  95  76 /   0   0   0   0




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