Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 190351
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Low end fire weather conditions and warming trend are the two
headlines for the short term.  High surface pressure moves out and
across the Deep South Region tonight gradually shifting winds out of
the southwest across our area. Although clear night skies, winds
should impede strong radiational measurable cooling but it place
there will be a wind chill.  We will still have a final cold night
in the 30s with most locations staying just above freezing while
very dry air should inhibit any frost. However, wind chill values
will make it feel in the 20s tonight.  While a cut-off low continues
to spin over the U.S. Southwest, an ridge in the weak subtropical
westerlies start building over the Southern Plains on Tuesday.
Increasing southwest winds by the afternoon hours under the ridging
and sunny skies will start a warming trend as our temperatures rise
above climatically average into the lower to mid 70s.  Although we
will see some weak low-level moisture return into much of our area,
drier air across the Panhandles may result in lower afternoon RH
values across northwest Oklahoma. The dry air and warmer
temperatures combined with gusty (25-30 mph) southwest winds may be
sufficient to elevate fire weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon
across northwest Oklahoma where ground fuels/vegetation remains dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A bit warmer Wednesday night under the exiting ridge with lows in
the 40s.  The aforementioned cut-off system gets recaptured by the
stronger polar jet flow and starts digging across the Southwest U.S.
toward the Southern Plains.  Gulf moisture transport increases by
Wednesday into our area sharpening up a dryline across western Texas
up through the Texas/OK Panhandles.

The increasing low-level moisture combined with colder Pacific air
aloft coming through the trough will start destabilizing much of our
area for potential convective weather along with rain with the
approaching weather system.  The consensus of models has a bullseye
of up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the eastern half of the
panhandles through much of our western CWA although overall shear
is weak.  A surface low develops lee of the Colorado Rockies and
settling across southeast Colorado through southwest Kansas as a
weak cold front stalls nearly along the Kansas/Oklahoma state lines.
Although mid-level moisture/cloudiness starts increasing in the
afternoon, our boundary layer and mid-levels may stay mixed and
uncapped for surface based storm initiation with additional elevated
storms/rain with mid-level ascent from the trough as seen in the
vorticity & omega fields. Will have storm POPs generally west and
north of I-44 on Wednesday afternoon.  There is a marginal risk for
severe storms late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours across
western Oklahoma where instability could be near moderate in the
proximity of the  surface low and stalled frontal boundary.  Weak
shear would keep any storms from organizing and becoming supercells
but a few storms could pulse up low-end severe with up to quarter
size hail and damaging wind gusts as potential hazards.  POPs
increase across our entire area Wednesday night into Thursday as the
upper trough moves through with mostly showers and a few weak
elevated storms. By late Thursday morning, the stalled cold front
starts pushing through maintaining rain/storm POPs in our area. Near
moderate instability shifts across northern Texas into southcentral
Oklahoma by Thursday afternoon in the warm/moist sector ahead of the
cold front, so cannot rule out a potential for strong to low end
severe storms in that area.  POPs end in our area Thursday night as
this system moves out to the east.

On Friday, a Canadian system pushes another cold front down through
the Central Plains with both GFS & ECMWF now consistent with timing.
However models not consistent with how far south the colder air
surges with the GFS and MEX guidance most aggressive with the front
and cooler for Friday night into Saturday bringing the 1000-850 mph
critical thickness line into northern Oklahoma.  For now will stick
with the less aggressive ECMWF and warmer NBM guidance in the
forecast for Friday nights MinT and Saturday`s MaxT although it
could change.  Will keep low (20-30%) rain/storm POPs across
northern and central Oklahoma on Saturday due to a potential
shortwave moving through our zonal flow aloft.  Gusty south winds
return on Sunday while upper flow shifts out of the southwest as a
longwave trough starts digging across the western half of the
country.  Fire weather conditions may return across our western CWA
Sunday afternoon with rain/storm chances increasing widespread into
Sunday night into Monday.  We could see a brief surge of cold
winterlike Canadian air behind a strong cold front early next week
perhaps Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR are still expected to apply through the forecast period. Skies
will generally remain clear. Expect an increase in SSW winds with
some gusts approaching 20 kt after 18Z Tue. Some high clouds may
also sneak in after this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  54  36  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         58  35  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  59  36  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           59  38  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     51  33  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         57  33  69  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...03


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