395
FXUS64 KOUN 131715
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Rain chances continue across southeast tonight and Monday.

 - Warming trend this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Closed low embedded within larger scale trough will continue to move
slowly east/northeast into the Ozarks region this afternoon. This
will keep main area of precip across southeast Oklahoma. However, it
appears that another weaker MCV located just northwest of OKC a my
aid in isolated to widely scattered activity further west this
afternoon across central sections of Oklahoma.

Farther south, across central/northeast Texas, multiple MCVs and
larger scale upper low will move from central Texas northeast into
southeast Oklahoma overnight. This will likely result in additional
rain/storms across that area late tonight into Monday morning. Still
appears that most of the northwest half of the area will remain
precip free, but it will be muggy along with some patchy fog.
Amounts/chances do not look significant/high enough to warrant
extending the flood watch beyond Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The disturbance/MCV will meander across eastern Oklahoma Monday,
continuing to provide support for scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the day Monday. While farther west some breaks
in the clouds and slowly rising heights from western ridge will
allow temperatures to warm back up closer to seasonal norms, but
still below normal for mid-July. Will likely add at least low pops
Monday night as trough axis remain overhead and modest waa develops
aiding at least in lift even if the veered flow tries to bring in
drier air in that layer.

Latest model runs show this trough remaining across eastern Oklahoma
southward into central Texas through the day Tuesday and into
Tuesday night. With abundant moisture still in place (PWATS of 1.5-2
inches) will likely continue to see precip chances linger across the
southeast part of Oklahoma with some low chances as far west as I-44.

Otherwise, will see warming trend continue with most locations back
in the 90s by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

It still appears that no strong upper ridge builds into the
western U.S. or the Plains. Flow aloft generally remains zonal
over the Plains. Medium range models do show a surface front
approaching or moving into northern Oklahoma on Wednesday night
in response to a wave moving across the Northern Plains. This will
give us the best chance of showers/storms in northern Oklahoma
this week. 500 mb heights are forecast to rise late in the week,
so temperatures will likely trend warmer Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Fog from this morning is gone, but enough cumulus clouds with
bases 1,500-2,500 feet remain in central Oklahoma to be achieving
BKN/MVFR ceilings early this afternoon. Expect cloud density to
thin a little to more of a prevailing SCT/VFR ceiling. After that,
VFR ceilings should remain for the next 24 hours. However, the
potential does exist in northern and central Oklahoma for fog
around daybreak.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  87  70  92 /   0  10  10  10
Hobart OK         68  92  70  96 /   0  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  71  91  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK           65  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     68  88  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
Durant OK         72  86  72  91 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-042-043-
     047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04