Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KTWC 152125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
225 PM MST Thu Mar 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Winds associated with a passing weather system will
subside this evening. Another weather system will increase winds
again this weekend and bring a chance of valley rain and mountain
snow to southeast Arizona Saturday night into Sunday. Cooler
temperatures will prevail through this weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Strong winds behind a cold front that passed
through southeast Arizona today will subside this evening. A wind
gust to 46 mph was recorded at the Safford Airport. The colder
and drier air that was ushered into the area today will lead to a
chillier night than the past few.

The next system currently off the Pacific NW coast will rotate
southeast across the Four Corners states this weekend. The GFS and
ECMWF are now in better agreement with the timing and placement of
this system. Chances for rain and mountain snow Saturday night and
Sunday look better than recent runs indicated and PoPs have been
raised correspondingly. If this model agreement continues,
confidence to raise PoPs will likely increase with subsequent
forecasts. This system will have colder air associated with it
than the one that passed through a few days ago and the timing
appears to be focused on the late night Saturday/Sunday morning
time frame. Thus, it should be more efficient at squeezing out
precipitation and snow accumulation levels could drop down to
around 5000 feet.

Temperatures will remain close to normal until Sunday behind this
next weather system. Expect colder than average temperatures for
highs Sunday and lows Sunday night. Fairly robust ridging of
high pressure is then indicated early next week which will cause a
decent temperature rebound by Tuesday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z.
A band of SCT-BKN clouds 6-8k ft AGL extending from KTUS
northeast will gradually decrease in coverage into tonight. Strong
westerly winds 15-25 kts gusting to 35 kts will ease this evening
below 10 kts. Winds restrengthen Friday afternoon southwesterly
10-15 kts with 15-20 kts in the far southeast such as at KDUG. Any
clouds Friday will be above 20k ft AGL. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A passing weather system is producing windy
conditions this afternoon, especially across areas east of Tucson
with westerly 20-foot winds peaking near 20-30 mph including
occasional higher gusts. Winds ease later this evening, but
breezes still pick up every afternoon into the weekend as a second
weather disturbance arrives on Sunday. This provides the best
chance of precipitation area wide, primarily Sunday morning with
the frontal passage. Drier and warmer weather then builds back in
early next week.






Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.