Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 140431

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
931 PM MST Tue Mar 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Another dry and warm day Wednesday, then a series of
weather systems passing just north of the area will knock
temperatures back below average and bring gusty winds at times
into early next week. A few mainly mountain showers are possible
tomorrow evening into Thursday morning, then another chance of
showers Saturday night into Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...We have a relatively high energy pattern, but only
average amplitude as the main storm track remains north of our
area. A strong storm system in the eastern Pacific is pushing
onshore this evening. Meanwhile, a sharp ridge dominates the
intermountain west with another strong system downstream across
much of the east. For our area, the ridge will dominate into
tomorrow with another round of dry conditions and warm

The trough pushing onshore will spread through the Great Basin
over the next 36 hours, but we don`t have much of a southern
branch split into our latitude. We do, however, have a plume of
moisture from the central Pacific pushing into the base of the
trough and into our area to help offset that a little. We`ll see
increasing mid and high cloud, with a few showers developing in
the upslope flow Wednesday evening. Most measurable precip will be
confined to higher terrain and even there generally under 1/4 of
an inch. Sprinkles and a few light showers in lower elevations.

Gusty winds at times as the trough deepens through western states
through the end of the work week, with cooler temperatures by
Thursday. We have another system dominating western regional
weather over the weekend, but we`ll be on the southern fringe of
that with heaviest precip north of our area.


.AVIATION...Valid through 15/06Z.
There are few aviation weather concerns. Normal wind trends
overnight, then increasing from the southwest Wednesday afternoon
12-15kts with higher gusts. Otherwise, some high clouds AOA 20k
feet into Wednesday. A few showers possible after 15/02Z, but
remaining VFR. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will persist across the area
into Wednesday. A few light showers will be possible Wednesday
night as a weather system moves across the region, mainly near
higher terrain. Gusty winds at times starting later Wednesday
afternoon into early next week, as a series of systems brush by
north of the area.






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