Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 160940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
240 AM MST Mon Apr 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system moving north of the area will bring gusty
winds with patchy blowing dust today into Tuesday. Brief cooling
Tuesday followed by warmer temperatures Wednesday. Gusty winds and
patchy blowing dust will return Thursday into Friday as an even
stronger system moves through the state. Cooler temperatures behind
this system Friday, then less wind and a warming trend next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...High clouds will continue to increase across the area
today ahead of a weather system impacting the West Coast early this
morning. As this system tracks inland, strong and gusty winds will
develop this afternoon into this evening. The combination of very
dry conditions, strong wind, and a high fire danger rating prompted
the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for today. Similar conditions
will remain across extreme southeast Arizona on Tuesday as the
system enters the central Plains. Thereafter, Arizona will be in
between systems on Wednesday before yet another windy system passes
through Thursday into Friday. This second system will be stronger
and track farther south through northern Arizona. That said, another
round of high winds resulting in critical fire weather conditions
and areas of blowing dust will be likely on Thursday. Each passing
system will bring a brief cool down in daytime temperatures.


.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru 16/18Z, then FEW-SCT clouds
around 15k ft AGL and BKN-OVC AOA 20k ft AGL thru the rest of the
forecast period. SFC wind generally less than 12 kts thru 16/15Z,
then increasing swly SFC wind. Swly/wly SFC wind at 12-25 kts with
gusts to near 35 kts between 16/18Z and 17/03Z. SFC wind slowly
diminishing aft 17/03Z to 5-15 kts by the end of forecast period.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of
southeast Arizona today, including Fire Weather Zones 150, 151, 152
and 153 from 11 am MST until 8 pm MST. A Fire Weather Watch is also
in effect Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Fire Weather
Zones 152, 153 and the southeast portion of Fire Zone 151.

The storm system will move north of the area through Tuesday,
generating gusty winds areawide today and across the eastern zones
on Tuesday. Minimum RHs will be in the single digits at all

Wednesday will be a relatively quiet day with light winds, but
continued very low humidity levels.

Another storm system will affect Arizona Thursday into Friday. This
system will likely result in critical fire weather conditions across
all of southeast Arizona on Thursday and then across the eastern
zones Friday. Single digit RH values are expected areawide Thursday.

The upcoming weekend will be quiet with light winds and closer to
average humidity levels.


  Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST today for AZZ150>153.
  Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday for AZZ151>153.



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