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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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000 FXUS65 KABQ 182029 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 229 PM MDT Wed May 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A few storms will impact far northeast New Mexico late this afternoon into the early evening hours and may become strong to severe, producing gusty and erratic winds. Warm westerly winds will increase Thursday, with well above normal high temperatures that will challenge daily record values at a number of locales. Look for more of the same Friday, followed by a cold front late day and overnight that will bring much cooler temperatures to eastern New Mexico for Saturday. Gulf moisture will infiltrate the eastern half on Monday and set the stage for a round of showers and storms late day through Tuesday, potentially bringing much needed rain to areas along and east of the central mountain chain. Meanwhile, western New Mexico will remain warm and dry early next week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... Showers and thunderstorms are developing in northeast NM this afternoon in response to an increase in low level moisture last night. The storms will continue through this evening. A few could turn severe with large hail and damaging winds before exiting into TX. Elsewhere will be dry and comfortably cool with light winds. The winds aloft will turn zonal and strengthen Thursday. Moisture in the east will get shoved into TX, leaving the entire area dry and very warm with increasing winds. Isolated wind advisories may be needed in the north central and northeast areas. Critical fire weather conditions will persist for most areas. Winds will be slow to diminish Thursday night, and may increase on higher elevations of the western and central mountains. Otherwise it will be dry and comfortable Thursday night. LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... An upper level trough will progress east from the Great Basin toward the southern Rockies Friday, steering stronger winds aloft over NM resulting in windy conditions ahead of a cold front forecast to move south across the area late Friday into Saturday. The combination of the trough and backdoor segment of the cold front may bring a few showers or storms far northern NM near the CO border from the Sangre De Cristos eastward late Friday through Saturday. Cold air advection will be most pronounced behind the backdoor segment of the cold front across eastern NM on Saturday, where highs are forecast to be 5-20 degrees below normal. Another upper level trough will approach from over the Great Basin on Sunday and move across the southern Rockies and northern NM on Monday, drawing Gulf moisture northwest into eastern NM and setting the stage for a round of storms late Monday, with decent agreement among the 12Z medium range model solutions. A bonus round is possible Tuesday across eastern NM, but lower forecast confidence for Tue/Wed given some significant differences among the medium range model solutions beyond Monday. Specifically, the 12Z ECMWF expands a large upper high across the region from mid to late week up to near 592dam at 500mb, while the 12Z GFS continues our pattern of increased westerlies with a succession of troughs. CHJ/11 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... Low level moisture moved into eastern NM last night and is hanging on today across the eastern plains. Showers and thunderstorms will impact the northeast areas through late evening, with a couple possibly turning severe. The winds aloft will increase out of the west Thursday, and mix down to the surface, sweeping the moisture in the east into TX. The combination of dry, unstable, breezy to windy conditions will create widespread critical fire weather conditions Thursday, as well as Friday. A back door cold front will impact eastern NM Friday night, with a better push south and west Saturday night, that could squeeze into the Rio Grande Valley. Low level moisture will return to the east along with a disturbance aloft passing to out north, with potential showers and thunderstorms late Friday through Saturday evening. The weekend will be much cooler, especially in the east. Sunday will be dry, but return flow moisture Monday and Tuesday could trigger showers and thunderstorms in the east. CHJ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with fairly light westerly flow that will trend up Thursday. A round of showers and storms is forecast to develop across the northeast highlands/plains later this afternoon and move southeast through the early evening hours, possibly impacting KTCC with strong/erratic wind gusts. A few late day buildups may also impact KFMN with strong/erratic wind gusts, but forecast coverage too low to include in TAF. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 49 89 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 39 84 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 46 84 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 43 85 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 45 81 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 44 85 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 46 83 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 55 86 52 84 / 0 5 0 0 Datil........................... 50 82 47 79 / 0 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 39 88 40 82 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 54 90 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 38 77 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 55 83 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 52 85 52 79 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 47 79 47 74 / 5 0 0 5 Red River....................... 41 76 42 67 / 5 0 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 34 76 36 71 / 10 0 0 5 Taos............................ 42 85 45 79 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 45 83 47 77 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 51 91 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 84 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 88 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 91 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 57 91 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 93 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 92 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 53 93 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 56 94 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 51 93 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 56 93 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 54 93 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 58 88 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 57 93 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 57 95 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 55 86 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 50 88 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 88 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 49 84 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 51 85 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 52 85 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 57 89 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 55 83 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 46 85 46 72 / 20 0 0 5 Raton........................... 44 90 48 79 / 10 0 0 10 Springer........................ 45 89 52 83 / 10 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 48 87 52 82 / 10 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 53 93 49 75 / 30 0 0 5 Roy............................. 50 91 56 83 / 20 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 53 97 62 90 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 53 93 61 90 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 55 100 62 91 / 10 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 55 96 60 93 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 53 98 61 94 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 53 98 61 93 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 59 101 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 59 93 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 57 92 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for the following zones... NMZ101>105-107-108. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for the following zones... NMZ101>109. && $$
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