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000
FXUS65 KABQ 261809 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1209 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A low pressure system stalled over AZ will continue to draw moist low
level air through the forecast area from the east and southeast for
the next 24 hours. Upslope flow will keep the plains socked in with
MVFR and IFR conditions mainly in low clouds but also in patchy fog.
These low clouds are also forecast to spread into the central valley
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will
favor the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward today
through Wednesday, with the lowest probabilities across the northeast
plains. The upper low will also draw a strong east canyon wind into
the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys with gusts over 35 kt
likely at the ABQ Sunport during late this afternoon through
tonight.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...349 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and approaching low pressure system will keep the
weather unsettled over New Mexico through Thursday. Cooler
temperatures are currently working into the state with readings
expected to stay 10 to 20 degrees below average today through
Thursday before slowly moderating. As the low pressure system
develops west of New Mexico today, showers and thunderstorms will
develop along the leading edge of the cold front, draped across the
Continental Divide and also near the central mountain chain of the
state. By Wednesday, copious amounts of lift and moisture ahead of
the low pressure system will work over the Land of Enchantment,
continuing into Thursday as the low moves north of the state. Clouds
and precipitation will start to gradually dwindle into Friday and the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front has plowed through the plains and is working west of
the Rio Grande and trying to make headway toward the Continental
Divide early this morning. Showers and storms will not quit in the
east central to southeastern plains where some moisture convergence
and instability lingers, and low clouds are also prevalent along and
east of the central mountain chain. Some stabilization is expected
for the east central to northeastern plains today, so precipitation
may turn more stratiform and light there as the day wears on, but
convective cells will likely be more common toward the
Sacramento/Capitan mountains and into Chaves county and vicinity. As
the front inches toward the Divide, some easterly upslope on east
slopes should aid storm development into the afternoon. By this time
the low should be centered over the tri-state area of CA-NV-AZ with
diffluent flow poised to begin overtaking NM into the overnight.

By Wednesday, the low will inch eastward over AZ, progressively
spreading large scale ascent over NM with a healthy coverage of
precipitation. A belt of higher PWATs will accompany, surging
northward into parts of central and western NM that could lead to
some locally heavy rain from thunderstorm cells, some of which could
train repeatedly over the greater Continental Divide area.
Temperatures will stay several degrees below normal with copious
cloud cover accompanying the widespread precipitation. Eastern slopes
will periodically remain socked in low stratus clouds as the easterly
synoptic flow persists.

By Thursday the low will begin filling in as it drifts northeastward
on a track north of the Four Corners region. Some subtle veering to
the surface winds is possible, but the overwhelming majority of
eastern slopes will still be observing some stratus within the
upslope component. Precipitation distribution still appears to be
rather widespread, but perhaps along one or more banded or linear
structures according to some model depictions.

On Friday, the low should lose more organization as it moves toward
the northern Rockies. The European and Canadian models present much
less precipitation into Friday when compared with the GFS
counterpart. Would seem to think precipitation coverage would see a
substantial drop off on Friday, but still just about any zone would
retain at least a slight chance of a shower/storm. The moisture will
not be displaced with surface winds generally staying out of the
south. Some breaks in cloud cover will finally allow temperatures to
climb a couple to a few degrees.

Westerlies will slowly strengthen over NM as another Pacific
Northwest low arrives and tracks toward the far northern Rockies by
this weekend. This should slowly eat away at the moisture, but a
harsh dry slot is not seen at this time.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The backdoor front has reached the RGV this morning with gusty gap
winds through the ABQ metro, and as far south as Roswell in the
eastern plains. Td`s have surged upwards behind the front, into the
50s and 60s, bringing plenty of moisture that will keep much of the
east under a blanket of clouds Tuesday. Daytime highs will be 15-20F
below normal across the east today through Thursday. Lows will remain
near normal across the forecast area.

The original upper low that spun off the backdoor front has exited
to the N into the Dakotas this morning, while a new trough has begun
to develop over the Great Basin. This trough will form into a new
closed low over the AZ/CA border, and will act to draw the backdoor
frontal bdry further west. With a divergent flow aloft over NM and
the increased sfc moisture, afternoon storm coverage will expand
over ctrl and western NM today. The upper low will move little
Wednesday, keeping western and central NM under the gun for what
will be best coverage of storms for the week. As the low begins to
exit N Thursday, storm coverage will shift into eastern and central
NM. Storms will be quick to move, however heavy rains will be a
concern for isold flash flooding in low laying areas Tue-Thu,
especially for eastern locations that have already seen plenty of
rainfall over the past several days.

MixHgts and Ventrates will trend down to poor behind the front, 1st
across the eastern plains today, then expanding into AZ on
Wednesday. MixHgts and Ventrates trend back up beginning Thursday
staying poor to fair across the east into the weekend. Temperatures
will also trend upward with highs back to normal areawide by the
weekend.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$