646
FXUS65 KABQ 141925
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
125 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- There is a high risk of flash flooding in the Ruidoso area
  through the early evening, with a low chance of off-scar
  flooding along and west of the central mountain chain.

- Storm coverage trends up mid to late week, increasing the threat
  of flash flooding with daily rounds of numerous showers and
  storms.

- Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning could
  accompany storms each day around the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across the central
mountain chain early this afternoon, mainly across the Sacramento
Mountains and northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Isolated stronger
storms have been observed across the Sacramentos as a result of 2000
J/kg of MUCAPE per the 18z SPC Mesoanalysis. Weak bulk shear in the
area has meant that these storms are not able to maintain themselves
for long, remaining pulse-like monsoon thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
are expected to continue to develop throughout the afternoon,
with western NM seeing development as we move later into the
afternoon. Storm motions are likely to be to the south and
southwest, though erratic storm motions are likely with initial
development over the higher terrain. A few storms may become
strong, but confidence is somewhat low for this, given a lack of
shear and decreasing CAPE further west. Little to no thunderstorm
development is expected across eastern NM today given the
southwest storm motion and lack of forcing across the area. Storms
will largely be diurnally driven, with chances tapering off by
sundown.

A similar day is expected for Tuesday, though the upper high shifts
slightly eastward across NM. This likely works to limit thunderstorm
development across mainly western and northern NM, with lesser storm
coverage across the Sacramento Mountains. Comparatively, 6 hour max
HREF QPF is noticeably lower near the Ruidoso burn scars tomorrow
than it is for today. While it only takes one slow moving storm to
create impacts, confidence is lower in this occurring tomorrow
and thus no additional Flash Flood Watch will be issued with this
forecast package. Elsewhere, the highest chances for precipitation
remain in the Gila Region of southwest NM where diurnally driven
thunderstorms are very likely to form.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Much of the same is expected Wednesday compared to Tuesday as the
upper high shifts further over eastern NM. Diurnally driven
thunderstorms are likely to form across west/southwest NM and across
the northern mountains. Lower chances of precipitation remain across
the Sacramento Mountains given the positioning of the upper high. A
more significant monsoon moisture plume is expected Thursday and
into the weekend. The upper high shifts further east in to TX and
the south central Plains, while a shortwave meanders up through the
Gulf of California. This setup pushes a swath of moisture into NM
and likely brings widespread precipitation across the area Thursday
and at least Friday. Storm motions do increase given the setup,
which may work to limit a flash flood risk, though heavier rainfall
rates and more widespread/longer precipitation may counteract the
faster storm motions. Heightened flash flooding risk is expected for
burn scars across the area given widespread, heavy rain and the
potential for wet antecedent conditions. Precipitation chances
continue into the weekend, but gradually decrease each day as the
shortwave merges with the mean flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop across the high
terrain this afternoon, mainly along and west of the central
mountain chain. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also likely from
any storm. Low confidence in any one storm impacting a TAF site, but
PROB30s exist at KGUP, KSAF, and KLVS for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms and/or outflows affecting the terminals. Elsewhere,
KABQ and KAEG are likely to see outflow winds from storms over and
just east of the Sandia Mountains, likely after 00z. Storms taper
off after 06z, with VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

No critical fire weather conditions are expected over the next 7
days. Daily rounds of thunderstorms are likely across the higher
terrain along and west of the central mountain chain each
afternoon and evening. Slow and erratic moving thunderstorms may
increase the threat of flash flooding, especially over recent burn
scars. More widespread precipitation is expected Thursday and
into the weekend as a monsoon moisture plume surges over the area.
Outside of gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms, winds are
expected to remain light across the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  98  62  96 /  20  10  10   5
Dulce...........................  47  93  47  92 /  40  50  20  40
Cuba............................  57  91  57  90 /  50  40  30  30
Gallup..........................  52  93  55  90 /  40  30  50  40
El Morro........................  55  88  56  86 /  50  50  50  60
Grants..........................  55  92  56  90 /  40  50  50  50
Quemado.........................  57  89  59  86 /  40  70  50  80
Magdalena.......................  62  89  63  89 /  20  50  30  50
Datil...........................  55  86  58  85 /  30  70  50  70
Reserve.........................  53  92  54  90 /  50  80  60  80
Glenwood........................  58  95  59  93 /  50  70  50  80
Chama...........................  47  84  49  85 /  40  60  20  60
Los Alamos......................  60  86  61  87 /  30  50  20  50
Pecos...........................  57  86  57  87 /  20  50  20  60
Cerro/Questa....................  55  87  55  87 /  40  50  20  80
Red River.......................  45  78  46  77 /  30  60  10  80
Angel Fire......................  40  79  40  79 /  20  50  10  70
Taos............................  52  89  52  89 /  40  50  10  60
Mora............................  51  84  51  83 /  20  60  10  60
Espanola........................  59  95  59  96 /  30  40  20  30
Santa Fe........................  60  89  62  89 /  30  40  20  50
Santa Fe Airport................  60  92  59  93 /  30  40  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  95  69  96 /  20  30  40  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  96  67  97 /  20  20  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  99  67 100 /  20  20  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  97  68  98 /  30  20  30  20
Belen...........................  63  98  64  98 /  20  20  30  10
Bernalillo......................  65  98  66  98 /  30  20  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  63  97  64  98 /  20  20  30  10
Corrales........................  66  99  67  99 /  30  20  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  65  97  64  98 /  20  10  30  10
Placitas........................  65  94  64  94 /  30  30  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  66  97  67  98 /  30  20  30  20
Socorro.........................  68  98  68  99 /  20  20  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  89  59  90 /  20  30  30  30
Tijeras.........................  62  90  62  90 /  20  30  30  30
Edgewood........................  55  90  56  90 /  20  30  20  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  91  54  92 /  20  30  20  30
Clines Corners..................  57  84  57  85 /  10  30  20  30
Mountainair.....................  58  88  58  90 /  20  30  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  58  87  59  88 /  10  30  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  63  89  65  91 /  10  20  10  30
Ruidoso.........................  56  81  59  84 /   5  30   5  40
Capulin.........................  55  86  54  84 /  10  30  10  40
Raton...........................  54  89  54  88 /  10  40  10  50
Springer........................  55  91  54  90 /  10  30  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  55  86  54  86 /  20  40  10  40
Clayton.........................  63  91  64  91 /   5  10   5  10
Roy.............................  60  89  58  88 /   5  20  10  20
Conchas.........................  66  95  65  96 /   5  10  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  63  92  62  92 /   5  10  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  63  91  63  93 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  65  92  66  95 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  65  92  65  96 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65  93  66  96 /   5   5   5   0
Roswell.........................  68  95  69  98 /   0   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  60  90  63  93 /   5  20   5  10
Elk.............................  58  87  60  90 /   5  30   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77