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000
FXUS65 KABQ 061751 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1151 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

The Flash Flood Watch was extended through 07/0600UTC to account
for prolonged (or a late second round) thunderstorm activity that
high resolution CAMs and the HREF are indicating for tonight.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

There will be an uptick in the coverage of thunderstorms and
rainfall intensity today into Wednesday with moderate to locally
heavy rainfall possible which could lead to flash flooding. Isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible, mainly along and
east of the central mountain chain. Drier air makes significant
progress over most of the region Thursday through the weekend, but
moisture will hold out over northeast New Mexico where thunderstorms
will be possible each day. Despite the drier air, high temperatures
will remain several degrees below normal for early June.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Some low clouds and/or fog remain possible this morning along and
east of the Central Mountain Chain, then another active day is in
store. Storms across eastern NM last evening has again pushed an
east wind through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain to at least
the ContDvd, which has yet again reinvigorated the low level
moisture west of the Central Mountain Chain. Another round of
relatively slow moving thunderstorms are expected today, aided a bit
by a weak wave crossing NM from west to east. Activity will likely
initiate shortly before noon across the high terrain, but will
quickly expand through the afternoon. Outflow boundary collisions
will help bring storms to the lower elevations, including the Rio
Grande Valley. In fact, there are better chances for precipitation
in the RGV, including the ABQ Metro, today than there was yesterday.
The stronger storms will be capable of producing very heavy
rainfall, as well as up to quarter size hail and, of course, gusty
winds. The lack of shear due to upper level ridging aloft will keep
storms rather unorganized, but a few severe storms are not out of
the question. The biggest concern, similar to previous days, will be
burn scar flash flooding.  A Flood Watch remains in effect for the
HPCC, Cerro Pelado and McBride burn scars. Though storm intensity
should wane after sunset, storms will likely persist across portions
of central and especially eastern NM well into the overnight hours.

On Wednesday, the upper low that has been churning near the CA coast
will inch eastward toward Las Vegas, NV. This will send a dry slot
over western NM, thereby limiting convection considerably compared
to today. Storms remain expected across the Central Mountain Chain
and portions of eastern NM. A few storms across eastern NM may be
severe and concern for burn scar flash flooding will persist (though
storm motions should be somewhat faster than today). Nonetheless,
Wednesday should be the beginning of a downward trend of storm
coverage. The greatest concern for heavy rainfall, hail and gusty
winds will be across the northeast and southeast plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Drier air will continue to progress over northern and central NM
Wednesday night with northeast and southeast NM appearing to be the
focus areas for thunderstorms during the evening. Storms look to
ignite on the Sangre de Cristo mountains Thursday and track over far
northeast NM late in the day/early evening. Dry southwest winds
aloft dominate Friday and through the weekend as a trough of low
pressure aloft remains stretched from SoCal northeastward into the
Great Basin. However, a batch of high clouds looks to cross the
region Thursday night through Friday with little impact. Northeast
NM will be the featured area for any storms Friday through Monday as
low level moisture sloshes in and out of that area on a daily basis.
Southwest surface winds strengthen Sunday and Monday, although
appear to remain generally below wind advisory criteria. Despite the
drier airmass in place across the majority of the forecast area,
high temperatures will continue to be several degrees below normal
during the Thursday through Monday due to lower heights. Overnight
lows will also be near to below normal for most locales.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today and tonight
as abundant low layer moisture gets exploited by an approaching
upper level disturbance. Storms early this afternoon will initiate
along the higher terrain of western and central New Mexico. A
north-south oriented band of storms is expected to develop and
gather near the Continental Divide later this afternoon, and it
will then track eastward into the Rio Grande valley early this
evening before overtaking the central mountain chain later in the
evening and eventually portions of the eastern plains late tonight
into the early morning hours Wednesday. Heavy downpours, hail,
gusty downburst winds and lower ceilings and visibilities will
accompany stronger storms. Some low clouds will be possible early
Wednesday morning with MVFR/IFR ceilings, mostly over rain-soaked
areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again
today. Flash flooding on burn scars will be a concern. Starting
Wednesday, dry air will punch into western NM, limiting convection
in this area, though storms will persist across much of eastern NM.
Storm coverage will continue to trend downward Thursday and stay
relatively low through the weekend, though a boundary across
northeast NM may continue to be a focus for thunderstorm
development. RH values will also plummet, especially across central
and western NM, where daytime values will be less than 15%. By
Sunday, breezes could really start to pick up, with even more wind
possible Monday. It`s not out of the question that spotty critical
fire weather conditions could return by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  84  51  79  45 /  60  60  20   5
Dulce...........................  75  44  72  38 /  60  80  50  20
Cuba............................  76  46  73  43 /  60  80  50  10
Gallup..........................  80  43  77  37 /  50  30   5   0
El Morro........................  74  42  73  39 /  70  40  10   0
Grants..........................  77  43  76  38 /  70  50  30   0
Quemado.........................  78  44  76  41 /  50  30   5   0
Magdalena.......................  76  50  76  48 /  60  70  20   5
Datil...........................  74  45  75  42 /  60  50  20   0
Reserve.........................  82  41  79  40 /  30  20   0   0
Glenwood........................  86  48  82  50 /  40  20   0   0
Chama...........................  69  42  66  37 /  70  80  60  20
Los Alamos......................  70  48  70  47 /  70  70  50  10
Pecos...........................  70  48  71  46 /  70  80  50  10
Cerro/Questa....................  68  43  67  39 /  80  70  70  20
Red River.......................  63  38  62  37 /  80  60  70  20
Angel Fire......................  64  37  63  33 /  80  60  70  20
Taos............................  73  43  72  40 /  70  60  60  10
Mora............................  66  44  67  42 /  80  70  70  20
Espanola........................  79  51  79  45 /  70  70  40  10
Santa Fe........................  73  50  73  48 /  60  70  50  10
Santa Fe Airport................  77  49  77  47 /  60  60  40   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  56  80  54 /  60  70  30   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  57  81  55 /  60  70  20   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  54  83  49 /  60  70  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  56  81  54 /  60  70  20   5
Belen...........................  84  55  84  53 /  50  70  20   5
Bernalillo......................  82  55  82  52 /  60  70  20   5
Bosque Farms....................  84  53  84  51 /  60  60  20   5
Corrales........................  83  55  82  53 /  60  70  20   5
Los Lunas.......................  84  54  84  52 /  60  60  20   5
Placitas........................  78  54  80  52 /  60  70  30   5
Rio Rancho......................  81  56  80  53 /  60  70  20   5
Socorro.........................  84  56  85  54 /  50  70  20   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  72  49  72  47 /  60  70  30   5
Tijeras.........................  74  51  75  49 /  60  80  30   5
Edgewood........................  73  49  74  47 /  60  70  40   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  74  46  76  44 /  60  70  40   5
Clines Corners..................  70  48  74  46 /  60  70  40  10
Mountainair.....................  75  49  76  47 /  60  70  30   5
Gran Quivira....................  76  49  76  48 /  70  70  40  10
Carrizozo.......................  80  54  80  54 /  60  70  30  10
Ruidoso.........................  72  48  74  49 /  70  60  50  10
Capulin.........................  67  48  71  46 /  70  50  70  30
Raton...........................  73  48  73  46 /  60  60  60  20
Springer........................  73  49  75  46 /  70  60  60  20
Las Vegas.......................  69  46  73  45 /  70  70  60  20
Clayton.........................  73  53  75  53 /  40  50  40  40
Roy.............................  70  51  73  48 /  60  60  50  20
Conchas.........................  78  56  82  52 /  40  60  40  30
Santa Rosa......................  75  55  79  53 /  40  60  40  20
Tucumcari.......................  78  56  81  54 /  30  50  30  30
Clovis..........................  77  57  80  55 /  20  40  30  40
Portales........................  79  57  82  56 /  10  40  30  40
Fort Sumner.....................  80  57  83  55 /  20  50  40  30
Roswell.........................  85  61  88  59 /  10  40  40  20
Picacho.........................  78  55  82  53 /  50  50  60  20
Elk.............................  75  51  79  51 /  60  50  50  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ211-214-215-226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...52