Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221729 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1129 AM MDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for low
probability MVFR conditions early Saturday morning at KLVS and KTCC.
Otherwise, gusty westerly flow will increase today. A backdoor cold
front will slide down the eastern plains tonight and result in a wind
shift at KLVS, KTCC and then KROW.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MDT Fri Jun 22 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Late June heat will dominate today with near record high
temperatures likely across portions of central and southern New
Mexico. Critical fire weather conditions are also likely over much
of northern New Mexico this afternoon, and a few strong to severe
thunderstorms could erupt over the northeast and east central this
afternoon and evening. Near to above average temperatures will
persist through the weekend and into next week. Western New Mexico
will continue to be dry, while any chances for thunderstorms will be
limited to the northeast and east central. Sunday may see a return
to critical fire weather conditions to portions of the north and
east for a few hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast guidance highs for today have changed little, and are
consistent with some near record heat for many locales along and
south of Interstate 40 and over portions of northeast New Mexico. It
would be the hottest day of the year for the Albuquerque metro and
KABQ could get really, really close to hitting the century mark this
afternoon. Same for KROW, which may come within a degree or two of
the 108 degree record high, which was set just last year. Kept the
heat advisory for the Chaves County Plains intact. Otherwise,
isolated strong to severe storms brushed Union County again tonight,
but tracked more southeast and into TX. Not confident about the SPC
Day 1 Outlook, with the general and marginal thunderstorm areas over
a large portion of eastern NM. At least for this afternoon, dry
westerly winds should help mix out dew points at least from the
Pecos Valley westward. A frontal boundary will push into northeast
New Mexico this evening, so some potential with that feature but
models don`t forecast the front to reach that far westward, nor do
they have much, if any pop at all. Painted a 10 percent area over
much of the eastern third as a compromise, but don`t have much
confidence in it, and some updates may be needed later today.

Temperatures cool a little Saturday and winds subside, but winds
increase along with temperatures Sunday. Moisture will continue to
push back and forth over the eastern plains into early next week on
occasional frontal/outflow boundaries. The west will continue to be
dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO...

...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...

The heat will be on today. Temperatures will be near records for
much of the area. Humidity values will continue to lower as well,
with single digit humidity readings likely for 6 to 10 hours across
much of central and western NM. Additionally, the combination of a
weak upper level trough crossing the central Rockies and a deepening
surface low over NE NM will yield an increase in westerly wind
speeds. Critical fire weather conditions are likely across much of
northern NM, except across the northeast where recent rainfall has
mitigated the threat. That said, contemplated added zone 104 to the
Red Flag Warning, mainly for eastern San Miguel County where a few
hours of critical conditions appear likely. However, held off for
now, as it`s a small portion of the zone.

Moisture will return to the plains this evening and overnight as a
back door front slides southward. Once again, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along the boundary, mainly across NE
NM.

Hot, dry and unstable conditions will persist on Saturday, though
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler overall than today.
Another upper level storm system will cross the central Rockies on
Sunday, again increasing winds across northern NM. Critical fire
weather conditions will be possible once again, especially across
the Northeast Highlands.

Monday through Wednesday will feature the upper high building
directly over state. Looks for temperatures to increase, the
atmosphere to become increasingly unstable, and RH values to fall in
the single digits across central and western NM. Diurnal sloshing of
the moisture across the plains can also be expected.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101>103.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ538.

&&

$$

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