Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 190547 AAE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1147 PM MDT Sat Aug 18 2018

The last of the evening`s tstm coverage over Roosevelt County is on
its way out of the state over the next 60-90 minutes. Drier air aloft
has already advected into the NW quarter of the state, and clearer
VFR skies are expected over much of the state by the mid to late
morning. The lone exceptions will a few spots across the northeast
quarter of the state where MVFR/IFR cigs could develop again
overnight. Confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF, but
did put mention of sct020 cigs at KLVS and KTCC, and it is also
likely at KRTN and KCAO. Lesser storm coverage is expected tomorrow
afternoon with dry breezy NW winds moving into the KFMN and KGUP.
What storms do form will favor the Sangre`s and northeast plains but
will likely be isold.



.PREV DISCUSSION...822 PM MDT Sat Aug 18 2018...
Quick update to decrease 1st period PoPs based on latest radar trends
and HRRR output. Severe threat has diminished, although a few
stronger storms are still possible through the evening hours across
the east central plains.


.PREV DISCUSSION...256 AM MDT Sat Aug 18 2018...
An atypical upper level trough is expected to drag across
northeastern New Mexico this afternoon and into the evening,
providing lift and unstable conditions for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms, some of which will turn strong to severe. Showers and
thunderstorms will also form along the higher terrain of central and
western New Mexico early this afternoon, but will be shunted eastward
as the afternoon wears on. On Sunday, storms will be few in number
during the daytime due to drier air that will have worked in behind
the previously mentioned disturbance aloft, but a cold front will
spill into the eastern plains of New Mexico late Sunday and Sunday
night with a few storms possible. Gusty winds will accompany the
front, including parts of the Rio Grande valley as the front surges
westward Sunday night. Thunderstorm chances will be fairly low early
next week as moisture struggles to slowly return to the area.


Sunday, a cold front will be spilling southward down the plains as
the remnant lobe of energy from ID finally drops into KS. Western NM
will be void of storms as the drier air will limit convective
initiation on Sunday, but a few isolated cells will be possible along
and just east of the Sangres. While storms appear to hold off for
much of the day Sunday, a line of convection is depicted by the NAM,
dropping along the leading edge of the front in the plains into the
evening and overnight. While the NAM is the most aggressive model
with this frontally-induced line of convection, it seems reasonable
given the fast propagation speed and the favorable
thermal/moisture/wind profiles ahead of the front. A gusty east
canyon wind will spill into central zones Sunday night and early
Monday morning.

On Monday, in the wake of the front temperatures will cool a couple
degrees below average in central to eastern NM. Storms will be hard
to come by as the PWATs will be fairly low with the best moisture
shunted to the southern tier of NM. Through this time the upper high
will take residence near the NM-AZ border with dewpoints remaining
healthy in eastern NM, but the deeper moisture and juicier PWATs
will likely not arrive Tuesday either as the high builds more
directly over NM. Temperatures will rebound several degrees into
Tuesday with daytime highs exceeding normal by a couple of degrees in
many locales.

Forecast models have come into better agreement with regards to the
placement of the high east of NM, and consequentially the steering
of deeper moisture into or around NM. This will lead better storm
coverage for the latter half of next week



Another round of afternoon tstms is expected, forming over the high
terrain before moving off to the E/SE this evening. Storms east of
the central mtn chain could become severe, producing strong erratic
downburst winds and large hail. Changes begin to arrive across the
far northwest where drier air behind a trough to our N will cutoff
tstm/shower activity early today. NW winds are also expected to pick
up to 20-25 kts near the Four Corners just before sunset.

The punch of much drier air reaches the RGV during the day Sunday,
as a backdoor front protects sfc moisture east of the central mtns.
Another round of breezy NW winds can be expected Sunday afternoon
over the NW Plateau, with Haines6 and MinRHs dipping to ~10%. A few
hours of elevated to critical fire weather is possible as the NW
winds pick up over the NW Plateau late Sun afternoon. A significant
downtrend in tstm coverage is also expected Sun, although a few
isold tstms can`t be ruled out over the east-central plains.

The backdoor front wins out Sun night, surging through the gaps of
the central mtn chain reaching the continental divide Mon morning.
Moisture trends up behind backdoor front across the west through Tue
as the upper high builds back over NM allowing a better tap into
monsoon moisture over AZ. Some of the moisture works its way into
far western NM. Thunderstorm coverage also trends up through the
middle to latter half of next week.





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