Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 182308 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
508 PM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Widespread higher terrain obscurations with MVFR to IFR cigs and
vsbys in light rain and fog from the RGV eastward at 23Z will be
very slowly eroding from the northwest through 19/15Z due to sfc
high pressure building over NM from the Four Corners allowing for
some drying in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Low clouds and fog
will likely hang on over se NM at KROW through 19/15Z before slowly
improving. A relatively weak cold front will push into ne NM with a
light to moderate ely wind developing into the RGV at KSAF and KABQ
aft 19/21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and moist conditions prevail again today, but with much less
wind as the upper level low pressure system has moved northeast to
over Utah. Numerous showers will persist across eastern New Mexico
through the evening hours before gradually diminishing. The low
pressure system will move across Colorado Friday and push a weak cold
front into New Mexico, which will bring a drier airmass with mostly
sunny conditions through Saturday. Moisture will increase over the
state Sunday into Monday, resulting in a return of clouds and
precipitation chances as a Pacific trough approaches slowly from the
west. Precipitation chances will peak next Tuesday and Wednesday as
the Pacific trough moves overhead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low has moved to over eastern Utah per the latest water
vapor satellite imagery and winds are notably less than yesterday at
this time. However, moist and unusually cool conditions for mid
October persist across much of the state, especially across the
eastern plains where numerous showers are providing rain-cooling and
helping to keep daytime temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s. With
the frontal layer gradually eroding, fog development is a good bet
overnight across east central and southeast New Mexico. However,
forecast confidence is lower, with the potential for low stratus to
be favored. For now, included a mention of fog overnight in the
southeast plains west to Ruidoso. Look for some improvement Friday as
the upper low moves east out of Colorado and sends a weak cold front
across northern New Mexico, bringing a drier airmass with some
sunshine for a change. Clouds will hang-on across southern portions
of the area Friday and be slow to diminish Friday night as the front
gets reinforced and progresses southwest across the remainder of the
state. Saturday looks to be a decent day, though breezy to locally
windy central and west with moderate easterly low level flow.

Moisture advection will begin Saturday night and continue through
Monday night in advance of a slow-moving Pacific trough approaching
from the west. The 12Z GFS is once again wetter than the ECMWF and
has shown good run-to-run consistency bringing much of New Mexico a
fairly wet period Tue/Wed as the upper level trough moves across.
This will be a fairly warm system, with snow levels dipping down to
only around 10K ft., but with convection could dip down closer to 9K
ft. There is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF operational
solutions with regard to a trailing shortwave trough, but both agree
on a drying/warming trend Friday through next weekend.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As an upper level trough weakens and moves eastward across Colorado,
surface winds will shift to the north tonight. This north flow in
the lower level of the atmosphere will bring drier air across the
region on Friday. Relative humidity will fall 40 to 50 percent
across the northeast and east central plains and 10 to 25 percent
across the rest of the area. Minimum relative humidity will still
remain high for October on Friday afternoon with 30 to 35 percent
values across the north and 40 to 60 percent values south. A weak
backdoor cold front Friday will produce fair to good ventilation
rates across the northeast and east central plains, while poor
ventilation is expected across the rest of the area. Winds on Friday
will be light.

Surface high pressure will build across NM from the east Saturday,
while surface low pressure in southwest AZ will fall. This pattern
will increase east winds across the area. East winds will generally
be 10 to 15 mph with 15 to 20 mph winds likely in the west highlands.
Relative humidity will decrease slightly Saturday, but afternoon
relative humidity will still remain above 30 percent areawide.
Ventilation rates in northeast and north central NM will be poor,
while fair ventilation rates are expected elsewhere.

An upper level low over central California Sunday will produce
southerly winds and increasing low level moisture across NM.
Isolated to scattered showers will develop south of I-40 on Sunday
with a slight chance of thunderstorms in west central and southwest
NM. Ventilation rates Sunday will be poor in most locations, except
for pockets of fair conditions in the northeast plains and west
central highlands. As the upper low moves eastward Monday and
Tuesday, coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase across
the region. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will continue to be
below normal, and light winds are expected. Scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms will continue across central and eastern
NM Wednesday, followed by drier west to northwest flow aloft on
Thursday.

28

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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