Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 071121 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
421 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. With an area of
high pressure, generally light winds are expected. The exception will
be across east central and southeast NM where breezy south to
southwest winds of 25 to 30 knots are expected this afternoon.
Otherwise, high clouds will increase in coverage from the west
overnight and into Monday morning.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...206 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will continue into early week with well above normal
temperatures forecast. The first 70 degree day of the calendar year
is forecast in Albuquerque on Monday. Winds will be on the uptrend
from early through mid week as a potent storm system approaches from
over southern California. Windy conditions are likely Tuesday through
Thursday, with the strongest winds forecast across eastern New
Mexico. Expect cooler conditions with chances for precipitation,
especially across northern portions of the state, toward the end of
the week and into Saturday as the storm system moves slowly over the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
Very quiet weather conditions are in store today as a ridge of high
pressure tracks west to east across the area. Rising pressure
heights and warming 700mb temperatures will allow for a continued
warming trend with high temperatures today about 5 to 15 degrees
above normal. A lee-side surface low will result in breezy south to
southwest winds across the southeast and east central plains today.
However, with the aforementioned ridge crossing, 700mb winds will be
fairly weak, thus, helping to keep afternoon gusts modest at around
30 to 35 mph.

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a mass of high clouds off the
coast of Baja CA. These clouds will move inland and move west to
east across the state tonight and into Monday. Increased high clouds
will help to keep low temperatures tonight warm, but the warming
trend continues into Monday as flow aloft turns southwest. High
temperatures will be well above normal areawide, and Albuquerque is
forecast to see its first 70 degree day of the year! A weak
subtropical jet will steer a mostly dry shortwave across the NM/CO
border. Little impact is expected from this wave, but it may be
enough to generate a few, very light showers across the Tusas and
Sangre de Cristos. Meanwhile, the lee-side low stays put over
southeastern CO and with strengthening 700mb winds, strong surface
winds are expected across much of eastern NM with the strongest
gusts near 45 to 50 mph across the northeast.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Increasing southwest flow aloft is forecast Monday night through
Thursday in advance of a potent upper level low. Windy conditions are
expected each day, with the strongest winds forecast across eastern
New Mexico where Wind Advisories will likely be required. Strong
downslope winds on Tuesday will send high temperatures across the
eastern plains 15-20 degrees above normal, which should be
sufficient to challenge record highs at a few locales. The upper low
is forecast to fill some as it moves east across the region toward
the end of the week, up to a 550dam 500mb low from what was a 536dam
500mb low earlier on Wednesday. Precipitation chances associated
with the passage of the upper low over the state will favor northern
New Mexico, in part due to added forcing from a backdoor cold front
forecast to wedge into the northeast quarter or so. However, the
latest medium range model solutions differ on the progression and
placement of the upper low beyond Thursday, so forecast confidence
drops off thereafter. The upper low and backdoor front will bring
below normal temperatures to our area Fri/Sat, which will seem much
colder given the well above normal temperatures earlier in the week.

15/11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...

Increasing winds and falling humidities will result in critical fire
weather conditions this week, particularly Tuesday through Thursday
across much of eastern NM and the lower RGV. Temperatures will
continue to warm today today as an area of high pressure crosses the
state, and the warming trend continues through midweek as flow aloft
then turns southwesterly. High temperatures will be well above
normal, especially across the eastern plains where highs will be 15
to 20 degrees above normal by Tuesday. Winds will continue to
strengthen each day as well as flow aloft increases with an
approaching storm system. Spotty critical fire weather conditions
are possible Monday across the northeast plains, but minimum
humidities are expected to largely remain above 15 percent. However,
continued dry conditions will trend minRHs down below 15 percent
Tuesday through Thursday across the east and lower RGV. Thursday may
even feature a couple hours of single digit RHs across the east
central plains. Some critical fire weather relief finally arrives
Friday and through the weekend with the arrival of a storm system.
Humidities will trend back up as precipitation chances increase
across most of the area.

15

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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