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000
FXUS65 KABQ 312338 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
538 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
High clouds will continue to stream across the area through the
overnight hours, especially across the southern half of NM. A wind
shift/cold front has already moved through the eastern plains,
switching winds around to the northeast, but a stronger push on this
cold front will occur tonight, and an east wind is expected in the
Rio Grande Valley by 06z. At KABQ, wind gusts may near 30kts. These
winds will subside around sunrise Sunday.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move southward through eastern New Mexico this
evening, pushing west into the Rio Grande Valley and points west
after midnight. Cooler temperatures will result Sunday with high
temperatures around 10 degrees cooler east and several degrees of
cooling central and west. Temperatures rebound quickly Monday with
dry and relatively warm weather continuing through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A quasi-stationary Baja low is tapping into Pacific moisture and is
spreading it over the Desert Southwest and New Mexico in the form of
mid and high clouds. Otherwise, an upper level trough is ejecting
out of the northern/central Rockies and pushing a cold front down
the front range. The backdoor front will push down our eastern
plains this evening and then west through the central mountain
chain resulting in a gusty east canyon/gap wind. Gusts to between 30-
35 mph are forecast into east Albuquerque within an hour or two of
midnight and should subside around sunrise. Highs on Sunday will
be below normal across the eastern plains behind the cold front and
near to above normal elsewhere. One wouln`t forecast those
temperatures given 500mb heights alone, which are forecast to be 590-
592dam over the area. This will amount to new daily record 500mb
heights by at least 2dam!

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A mostly dry and weak upper-level low is forecast to result in
increasing breezes for eastern NM Monday and Tuesday along with mid
and high clouds for western and northern portions of the state
Monday night and Tuesday. A lee-side trough in northeast NM will
result in increasing southwest breezes that will likely lead to some
downslope warming effects. Decided to go with the warmer temperature
guidance across eastern NM for much of next week given the upper
level pattern resulting in lee side troughs/surface lows.

Focus then shifts to a deep/cold upper-level trough taking shape
across the Western U.S. late next week. Current deep convection in
the far EPAC associated with an Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in
phase 7 will help draw this feature farther south. GFS and ECWMF and
their ensemble members agree that colder and more active weather is
in NM`s next weekend. Southwest flow aloft ahead of this feature is
looking likely, likely keeping snow level relatively Saturday night
or Sunday, rapidly lowering in western and northern portions of the
state behind the associated cold front sometime Sunday.

The winter outlook for central and northern NM will be out late next
week, once the November climate model runs are complete. In a
nutshell, our historic October winter-like storm system from last
week and the the upcoming storm system are indicative of a La Nina
similar to 2016 when at least northern NM had near average
precipitation. The caveat this year has to do with a stronger La
Nina centered farther west or a Modoki (CPAC) flavored oscillation.
Last week showed that a Modoki flavored La Nina has it`s upsides.
When deep tropical convection in the CPAC abruptly ends thanks to a
quiet EPAC, a high amplitude ridge develops over the EPAC (flow aloft
is geostrophic suddenly has to become super-geostrophic splitting
the flow) and a cold upper-low drops into the western and
southwestern U.S.

11/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A backdoor cold front will bring cooler conditions to much of the
area Sunday, but a rapid warm-up thereafter will bring temperatures
above normal areawide Monday. A weak trough will move over the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with shortwave ridging and even
warmer temperatures following on Thursday. Winds and vent rates will
trend up significantly by the end of the work-week and into the
weekend as a potent upper level trough/low approaches from the west
coast. Winds will likely reach critical threshold Sat/Sun in advance
of the trough/low, but the latest medium range model solutions are
showing the trough fetching Pacific moisture and resulting in higher
humidity and potential for wetting precipitation. Forecast
confidence in critical fire weather conditions next Sat/Sun is low
at this time.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$