Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 182029
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
229 PM MDT Wed May 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A few storms will impact far northeast New Mexico late this afternoon
into the early evening hours and may become strong to severe,
producing gusty and erratic winds. Warm westerly winds will increase
Thursday, with well above normal high temperatures that will
challenge daily record values at a number of locales. Look for more
of the same Friday, followed by a cold front late day and overnight
that will bring much cooler temperatures to eastern New Mexico for
Saturday. Gulf moisture will infiltrate the eastern half on Monday
and set the stage for a round of showers and storms late day through
Tuesday, potentially bringing much needed rain to areas along and
east of the central mountain chain. Meanwhile, western New Mexico
will remain warm and dry early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
Showers and thunderstorms are developing in northeast NM this
afternoon in response to an increase in low level moisture last
night. The storms will continue through this evening. A few could
turn severe with large hail and damaging winds before exiting into
TX. Elsewhere will be dry and comfortably cool with light winds.
The winds aloft will turn zonal and strengthen Thursday. Moisture in
the east will get shoved into TX, leaving the entire area dry and
very warm with increasing winds. Isolated wind advisories may be
needed in the north central and northeast areas. Critical fire
weather conditions will persist for most areas. Winds will be slow
to diminish Thursday night, and may increase on higher elevations of
the western and central mountains. Otherwise it will be dry and
comfortable Thursday night.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
An upper level trough will progress east from the Great Basin toward
the southern Rockies Friday, steering stronger winds aloft over NM
resulting in windy conditions ahead of a cold front forecast to move
south across the area late Friday into Saturday. The combination of
the trough and backdoor segment of the cold front may bring a few
showers or storms far northern NM near the CO border from the Sangre
De Cristos eastward late Friday through Saturday. Cold air advection
will be most pronounced behind the backdoor segment of the cold front
across eastern NM on Saturday, where highs are forecast to be 5-20
degrees below normal. Another upper level trough will approach from
over the Great Basin on Sunday and move across the southern Rockies
and northern NM on Monday, drawing Gulf moisture northwest into
eastern NM and setting the stage for a round of storms late Monday,
with decent agreement among the 12Z medium range model solutions. A
bonus round is possible Tuesday across eastern NM, but lower forecast
confidence for Tue/Wed given some significant differences among the
medium range model solutions beyond Monday. Specifically, the 12Z
ECMWF expands a large upper high across the region from mid to late
week up to near 592dam at 500mb, while the 12Z GFS continues our
pattern of increased westerlies with a succession of troughs.

CHJ/11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...

Low level moisture moved into eastern NM last night and is hanging
on today across the eastern plains. Showers and thunderstorms will
impact the northeast areas through late evening, with a couple
possibly turning severe. The winds aloft will increase out of the
west Thursday, and mix down to the surface, sweeping the moisture in
the east into TX. The combination of dry, unstable, breezy to windy
conditions will create widespread critical fire weather conditions
Thursday, as well as Friday. A back door cold front will impact
eastern NM Friday night, with a better push south and west Saturday
night, that could squeeze into the Rio Grande Valley. Low level
moisture will return to the east along with a disturbance aloft
passing to out north, with potential showers and thunderstorms late
Friday through Saturday evening. The weekend will be much cooler,
especially in the east. Sunday will be dry, but return flow moisture
Monday and Tuesday could trigger showers and thunderstorms in the
east.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with fairly light
westerly flow that will trend up Thursday. A round of showers and
storms is forecast to develop across the northeast highlands/plains
later this afternoon and move southeast through the early evening
hours, possibly impacting KTCC with strong/erratic wind gusts. A few
late day buildups may also impact KFMN with strong/erratic wind
gusts, but forecast coverage too low to include in TAF.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  89  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  39  84  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  46  84  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  43  85  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  45  81  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  44  85  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  46  83  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  55  86  52  84 /   0   5   0   0
Datil...........................  50  82  47  79 /   0   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  39  88  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  54  90  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  38  77  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  55  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  52  85  52  79 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  47  79  47  74 /   5   0   0   5
Red River.......................  41  76  42  67 /   5   0   0  10
Angel Fire......................  34  76  36  71 /  10   0   0   5
Taos............................  42  85  45  79 /   5   0   0   0
Mora............................  45  83  47  77 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  51  91  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  55  84  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  50  88  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  91  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  91  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  93  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  92  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  53  93  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  56  94  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  51  93  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  56  93  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  54  93  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  58  88  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  57  93  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  57  95  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  83  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  55  86  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  50  88  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  44  88  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  49  84  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  51  85  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  52  85  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  89  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  55  83  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  46  85  46  72 /  20   0   0   5
Raton...........................  44  90  48  79 /  10   0   0  10
Springer........................  45  89  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  48  87  52  82 /  10   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  53  93  49  75 /  30   0   0   5
Roy.............................  50  91  56  83 /  20   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  53  97  62  90 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  53  93  61  90 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  55 100  62  91 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  55  96  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
Portales........................  53  98  61  94 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  53  98  61  93 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  59 101  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  59  93  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  57  92  56  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones... NMZ101>105-107-108.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.

&&

$$


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