Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 270540 AAD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

Upper low centered over srn NV to move to Four Corners region by
28/03Z while sfc lee trough deepens. Lingering low level moisture
over far ern NM forecast to be swept out of the state by 15Z. Strong
swly sfc winds to develop aft 15Z especially from the central mt
chain ewd, where gusts to around 45-50kts are possible. A few showers
to develop over far nw NM aft 23Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION...729 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019...
Canceled all counties in the tornado watch and De Baca and Chaves
Counties from the severe thunderstorm watch. Updated zones are out.


.PREV DISCUSSION...224 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019...
An active afternoon and evening of weather on the eastern plains as
convection is beginning to fire along the dry line. Dry thunderstorms
a concern farther west as well into the evening. The east will finally
dry out Monday as the west coast storm moves east toward the four
corners region late Monday. Strong winds are expected in southern and
especially eastern areas Monday afternoon. Showers will be delegated
to the northwest. Temperatures will turn cooler. The storm will move
away Tuesday leaving mostly dry and cool weather. The next trough
wills wing through Wednesday with a back door cold front into the
east Wednesday night. Return flow moisture may re-activate the eastern
plains with daily rounds of showers and storms for the end of the
week into the weekend.


Severe weather a threat through early to mid evening across the
eastern plains with deep moisture and instability to go with decent
lower level inflow. Some dry storms with lots of high based CU
developing within the thin layer of mid-level moisture seen on
morning soundings in western and central NM. Strong outflow winds
may create some virga bombs into early evening in central and western
zones. Dry later tonight everywhere.

The western storm will move to the Great Basin Monday and four corners
region Monday night before lifting northeast Tuesday. Surface cold
front will follow from west to east Tuesday, with a weak back door
front sneaking into the northeast Tuesday night. Biggest concern
Monday will be the winds, with advisory criteria winds over much of
the south and east. Any showers/storms will be in the northwest
closest to the approaching system. Tuesday will be mostly dry with
less wind, but with below normal temperatures.

A weak short wave trough in the northwest flow will cross NM
Wednesday with showers and storms in the west and north and below
normal high temperatures continuing. A healthier back door front push
will move south across all the east Wednesday night. Return flow
moisture Thursday into the weekend may set up another dry line in
the east with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will increase while winds will not be too strong.



Strong south to southwest winds will begin to taper off after
sunset this evening. The threat of erratic gusty winds from dry
thunderstorm activity has increased over the western half of the
state focusing over the middle RGV then extending into the Central
Highlands and far Northeast Highlands this evening. Meanwhile, the
dryline is oriented just west of the Pecos River, and just east of
Las Vegas to Raton this afternoon. Strong to severe storms will
develop along this line before quickly moving northeast capable of
producing frequent lightning, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and
strong downburst winds.

Strong southwest winds peak in strength Monday, focusing through
FWZ103 with peak gusts up to 50kts. The dryline will keep early
morning moisture roughly one county deep into eastern NM Monday, but
will quickly advance eastward into TX in the afternoon. MinRHs
plummet as a result across the east. Ventilation remains excellent
Tuesday with cooler temperatures and winds turning westerly behind a
Pacific cold front. Showers will favor the northern high terrain
Monday night into Tuesday. Lighter winds for the rest of the week,
backdoor cold front will replenish moisture through the eastern
plains Wednesday with return moisture from the Gulf late in the week.
Temperatures also trend back up Wed-Fri.




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