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000
FXUS65 KPUB 202124
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2020

Main forecast concerns/challenges:

1) Low stratus, drizzle, and fog across the far eastern plains
tonight into Wednesday morning.

2) Critical fire weather conditions across Lake and Chaffee county
Wednesday afternoon.

Relatively quiet across the area this afternoon outside of some
spotty critical fire weather conditions across southern Chaffee and
western Fremont county, where gusty westerly winds and low RH values
are being noted. Persistent dense cirrus remaining in place at this
time and will likely hold into this evening. Mid/Upper level flow
does become more westerly later this evening, and think this cirrus
will likely become more focused into central/east central CO. Front
on its way, with a wind shift to the east northeast and period of
gustier winds expected late this afternoon into early evening.

Surface trough to the south and southerly flow will allow surface
boundary and higher dewpoint air to work its way back into southeast
CO later tonight. As this occurs, should see low stratus develop and
expand into east/southeast CO. Additionally, increasing low/mid
level flow will support some weaker yet focused ascent in this
location, with a period of drizzle and possibly light rain
developing late tonight into Wednesday morning. At this time,
highest chances look to be for locations right near the CO/KS
border. Fog could once again become something to monitor as well,
given the increases in low level moisture. Any remaining stratus,
fog, or drizzle Wednesday will slowly depart to the east by mid to
late morning. While temps increase for most locations, locations
over the far eastern plains will likely be much cooler.

Similar setup for gusty winds with low RH expected again Wednesday
afternoon across Lake, Chaffee, Fremont, and Saguache Counties.
However, conditions do appear to be slightly more widespread across
Lake and Chaffee and have issued a RFW for these locations at
this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2020

...Pattern changes on the horizon...

Wednesday night through Thursday...An upper level system will
quickly cross the Pacific NW and northern Rockies Wed night and Thu,
boosting winds for the forecast area before pushing a cold front
into eastern CO. Plan on a relatively mild night for many locations
Wed night as breezy winds are anticipated through the night,
especially for those locations near the eastern slopes of the
eastern mts. Overnight lows will range from 25 to 30 for the San
Luis Valley, mid 40s to lower 50s near the mts, and upper 30s to mid
40s along the Arkansas River valley. On Thu, increasing westerly
winds ahead of the incoming front will produce very warm and dry
conditions, enhancing fire danger. Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch
for much of the area Thu looks good and will likely be upgraded
overnight tonight. Highs on Thu are forecast to climb into the 70s
to near 80F for the plains, while 60s to lower 70s are expected for
the high valleys. The cold front is then expected to push across the
Palmer Divide and into southeastern CO by midafternoon, ushering in
much colder air, gusty northeast winds and areas of blowing dust
across the far eastern plains into the evening.

Friday...A cool post-frontal day with easterly surface winds keeping
the plains in the 40s to lower 50s all day, while the high valleys
will be much more comfortable in the 60s.

Saturday...A stronger upper level system crosses the Rockies on Sat,
once again creating dry and gusty conditions for the forecast area
through the day, with fire danger possibly becoming an issue once
again. Look for highs in the 60s to around 70F.

Sunday through Tuesday...Long range models agree that a stronger
upper level low pressure system will move into the Great Basin and
Four Corners region starting Sun, and linger into the next work
week. However, there is some disagreement at this time on how this
system is going to look. Some solutions point towards a longwave
trough gradually crossing the region, while others are pointing to a
cutoff low breaking off from the larger trough which then meanders
across the Four Corners well into the middle of next week. Such
discrepancies make it difficult to stray too far from the extended
procedure output, but feel the general forecast direction at this
point is solid which means much colder temps Sun and Mon, then
slightly warmer but still below seasonal norms for Tue. Pcpn moves
into the forecast area starting Sun night, with snow for the mts and
a possible rain snow mix for the lower elevations. Stay tuned. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2020

VFR and dry weather will persist through the period. Dense high
clouds remain in place across PUB and COS, while ALS remains on the
clearer side. Expect this dense high level cloud cover to persist
this evening, then begin shifting out of the area. COS may continue
to see these high clouds for part of tonight though. Clearer skies
then expected on Wednesday for all the terminals. Winds still
anticipated to be on the lighter side for ALS, while COS and PUB
note a period of northerly gusty winds this evening, post FROPA. A
diminishing trend then expected tonight into Wednesday morning,
before winds increase out of the south later in the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ220.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ220-222-224-225-228>230-233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ