Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
958 AM MST Fri Dec 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM MST Fri Dec 14 2018

Currently, quiet weather this evening as an upper level ridge
begins to build across the southwest US and over Colorado per
GOES-17 water vapor imagery. Conditions are dry, winds light, and
skies are mostly clear except for thin cirrus clouds over the far
eastern plains. Temperatures are in the teens across the plains,
mid 20s in Colorado Springs, and single digits to 20s in the high

Today and Tonight, the upper ridge will continue to build east
across the region, and upper level flow transitions form northerly
to southwesterly across Colorado. Given the mundane setup,
conditions across southern Colorado will remain pleasant through
tonight. The forecast area will remain dry and winds light. Skies
will be clear during the day before high clouds begin to increase
from west to east across the state during the evening as upper
level moisture increases. Temperatures will be warmer than
yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 50s across the plains and
Colorado Springs, and upper 30s and 40s in the high valleys. Lows
tonight will fall into upper teens to 20s across the plains, and
single digits to teens in the high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM MST Fri Dec 14 2018

The weather is expected to be quiet through the extended forecast
period. The aforementioned ridge breaks down slightly on Saturday
as a weak and progressive shortwave advances across the Rockies,
north of Colorado. This feature is not expected to have a
significant impact on southern Colorado weather other than sending
a weak northerly surge down the eastern plains. The ridge builds
again on Sunday behind the wave.

Monday into Tuesday, models have been consistent in passing two
weak shortwave troughs near Colorado. The first will lift
northeast out of Mexico into Texas. The second will dive southeast
out of California and track through Arizona and southern New
Mexico and into Texas/Mexico. The last few runs have pushed the
features further south and east away from Colorado, leading to
little impact on our weather. If they do shift back north a
little, the higher elevations could see isolated snow showers, but
recent trends do not support this. The latter feature will drive
another weak northerly surge down the eastern plains on Tuesday.

Wednesday into Thursday, models agree to build the southwest US
ridge again leading to continued calm weather.

High temperatures though the long term will remain consistently
above average, including mid to upper 50s across the plains and
Colorado Springs, and 40s in the high valleys. Temperature each
night will fall into the 20s across the plains and single digits
to low 20s in the high valleys.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 956 AM MST Fri Dec 14 2018

VFR and dry conditions are expected throughout the forecast period
for KALS, KCOS, and KPUB.




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