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827
FXUS65 KPUB 130543
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1043 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019

Leading edge of the upper level jet pushing into Colorado
this afternoon, bringing some very light snow to the central
mountains from Cottonwood Pass northward. Jet and associated
moisture will continue to plow into the state overnight and through
the day on Fri, leading to a gradual ramp up of snow intensity and
coverage along the Continental Divide. Snow accumulations through
Friday afternoon won`t be too extreme (5-10 inches over the Sawatch
and Mosquito Ranges), but with strong west winds producing
widespread blowing snow, especially near/above timberline, winter
storm warning looks warranted for higher mountain zones, with
advisory for lower elevations of Lake County. Farther south along
the Divide, snow looks much lighter, with just a few inches expected
over the La Garitas/San Juans. Some mainly light spillover showers
expected in upper Arkansas Valley and over the eastern mountains,
through Friday, while plains and bulk of the San Luis Valley stay
dry and fairly mild under westerly flow aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019

Active meteorological conditions are expected over the CWA from
Friday night into Monday morning in advance of improving conditions
from later Monday into next Thursday.

Initially, snow, heavy at times(with incoming system/PV
analysis/etc.)in combination with gusty winds will be ongoing over
the Central Mountains Friday evening, with snow expanding into
the majority of our Continental Divide locations into Saturday
night and then continuing into Sunday, therefore have expanded
inherited Winter Storm Watch to also include the La Garita
Mountains in addition to the eastern San Juan mountains from late
Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere, locations east of the I-25 corridor should experience
generally dry and cooler conditions in combination with gusty
winds at times from Friday evening into Saturday evening(with
encroaching showers possible from the west as Saturday
progresses).

Recent longer range computer simulations, ensembles, PV analysis,
forecast model soundings/etc. still indicate that the highest
potential for more widespread and possibly moderate to heavy
precipitation/snow over eastern locations should be realized from
Sunday into Sunday night and have issued a Winter Storm Watch
over many eastern locations to account for this potential as
healthy upper disturbance interacts with northerly component
surface surge during this time-frame.

Coolest temperatures during the longer term should be realized
from Saturday into Tuesday, with warmer conditions returning by
next Wednesday and Thursday as upper ridging moves across New
Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1043 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the
next 24 hours. Gusty northwest winds 20-35kts can be expected
at the taf sites developing through the morning, strongest
in the afternoon and diminishing through the early evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Friday for COZ059.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for COZ058>060.

Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday
night for COZ061>063-072>087.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for COZ058-060.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for COZ066-068.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MW