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000
FXUS65 KPUB 260533
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1033 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2020

Upper level ridge will build into Colorado overnight and through the
day on Sunday, keeping mainly dry and mild conditions in place
across the state the next 24 hrs. Could still see a flurry or two
this evening over the higher peaks of the central mountains before
activity ends toward midnight, though not expecting any accumulating
snow. Overnight low temps will continue to trend upward slightly,
with weak downslope flow keeping areas along and just west of I-25
near freezing through much of the night. Sheltered valleys will
become fairly cold once again, and undercut blended guidance for
usually cold locations around Creede in the upper Rio Grande Valley.
On Sunday, little weather to speak of, other than some occasional
bouts of high level cloudiness, with max temps running within a few
degf of Saturday`s readings.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2020

.Sunday Night through Monday...Next shortwave moves into western
Colorado Sunday night.  Southwest flow ahead of the trough will
bring snow to the Continental Divide region late Sunday night and
into Monday. As the system progresses eastward, it will develop a
weak cutoff low somewhere over northern New Mexico. This will
weaken the orographics over the Continental Divide region as well
as take much of the synoptic lift further south. As a result,
anticipate sub advisory amounts for the mountains on Monday. As
the cutoff progresses towards the southeast, modest upslope will
develop over the eastern mountains and eastern plains. Given the
relatively fast movement and limited moisture, do not anticipate
significant QPF over the eastern mountains. WPC QPF has around
0.1 to 0.3 tenths over the eastern mountains with 0.2 to 0.5
inches over portions of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This
results in roughly 1 to 4 inches of snow over the eastern
mountains with 2 to 6 inches in the Sangre de cristo Mountains.
System is relatively warm and suspect any light precipitation on
the plains will start as rain.

.Tuesday...Upper trough moves east of the state with some light
precipitation possibly lingering over the far southeast plains in
the morning. Not much cold air behind the trough so anticipate a
mild day. By later in the afternoon, snow from the next trough
could reach the Continental Divide region during the evening.

.Wednesday and Thursday...Uncertainty increases with the next
trough.  The models and ensemble members are trending towards the
system splitting with the southern portion developing a cut off
somewhere over Arizona.  The northern branch is more progressive
staying mostly over the northern High Plains. The models and
ensembles suggest there could be a period of synoptic lift on
Wednesday combined with a cold front. This combination could bring
a period of light snow to the eastern mountains as well and
possibly the plains. Currently, does not look like a significant
event for the eastern mountains or plains with some light
accumulations possible.

.Friday and Saturday...The trough should be east of the region
Friday and Saturday,  Northwest flow aloft could bring periods of
light snow to the Continental Divide region, especially in Lake and
Chaffee Counties.  Otherwise, weather appears to be fair and
relatively mild. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1032 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2020

VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, kpub, kals and kcos. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...HODANISH