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000
FXUS65 KPUB 071720
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1120 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Currently...Satellite imagery and upper-air analysis indicate that
Colorado is sandwiched between a ridge of high pressure centered
over Texas and a trough of low pressure extending from the Pacific
Northwest south along the West Coast. The only shower activity in
Colorado showing up on radar is just south of the I-70 corridor,
otherwise, all the activity has moved off into Kansas.

Today and tonight...The aforementioned ridge and trough will remain
relatively stationary, resulting in west to southwest flow aloft
through the short term forecast period. This flow will keep the
region mainly dry and hot; however, some isolated thunderstorms are
possible over the higher terrain this afternoon. In addition, latest
hi-res guidance continues to indicate the chance for an isolated
thunderstorm or two over the far southeastern corner of the state
this afternoon and evening, mainly in Las Animas and Baca Counties,
so have PoPs reflecting that possibility. Afternoon highs are
expected to reach the mid 90s to around 100 across the plains and
the 80s to near 90 in the high valleys. A mild night is also in
store, with lows generally in the 60s across the plains and mid 40s
to mid 50s in the high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Upper ridge to our south keep moisture mainly supressed over the
weekend, though most models at least hint at some isolated/weak
mountain convection both days. Srn Sangres would appear to have
the highest pops Sat/Sun, though even here not expecting much
more than lightning/wind and brief light rain with any storms. Max
temps each afternoon will remain above seasonal averages, and a
few spots across the lower Arkansas Valley will end up around 100f
both days. Nrn stream wave drives a cold front south through the
plains Sun night, taking about 10f off of max temps on Mon along
and east of the mountains, while mountains and interior valleys
see little change. Air mass does moisten behind the boundary Mon,
with perhaps just enough upslope and instability for some
isolated storms spreading from the eastern mountains onto the
plains late in the day, though models aren`t particularly enthused
about any widespread or significant precip at this point. Wed/Thu
then look drier and warmer as deep upper trough moves toward the
Pacific NW and sw flow spreads across CO. Some mid level moisture
finally gets entrained in the flow by Fri, bringing back at least
a chance of convection to most mountains/valleys by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VFR all TAF sites. Dry air will remain over the region for very
little, if any, thunderstorm activity near the TAF sites. --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARLBERG
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW