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000
FXUS65 KPUB 252209
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
309 PM MST Thu Feb 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM MST Thu Feb 25 2021

Snowfall winding down across the area this afternoon, with snow
showers limited mainly to the southern Sangres and San Juans, where
some modest instability lingers. Expect any showers to end quickly
this evening with clearing skies and seasonably cool
temperatures overnight, though did nudge NBM temps down slightly
over residual snow cover. On Friday, brisk wly flow at aloft across
the area, while surface lee trough develops along I-25. Much of the
area will become breezy and warmer by afternoon, though fairly
deep snow cover over El Paso county will hold back temps somewhat.
Areas near the srn border in Las Animas and Baca counties will see
increased fire danger as RH falls toward 15 percent and winds
increase, though wind gusts will likely stay under the 25 mph
threshold and no highlight should be needed.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM MST Thu Feb 25 2021

Upper trough drops through the area Friday night into Saturday,
bringing another light round of snow to the central mountains.
Currently only expecting a light dusting near the Continental Divide
which should fade out by Sunday. As the upper low to the north
closes off and continues to translate eastward, the flow over our
area will transition to southwesterly aloft and more gusty at the
surface. Winds will first increase over the mountains, with gusts of
40-50 mph or more possible through the afternoon. Later in the
afternoon, surface flow over the valleys and eastern plains is
expected to increase quite a bit. Went with mostly CONSMOS along
with the neighbors to better capture the expected increase in winds,
getting low-mid 20s sustained and 30-40 mph gusts through Saturday
evening. RH values are a bit of a concern for a few hours Saturday
afternoon, dipping just below critical thresholds for our far
southeast zones. Given current weather impacts and trends, have
decided it is a little too early to issue anything at this time, but
will keep a close eye on the next few model trends for a potential
fire weather highlight.

Upper trough digs way down on Sunday, sending a closed off low far
south of our area, missing us with most of the potential
precipitation. While the transition to more northerly flow will
bring down high temps a few degrees across the area, the chance of
more snow is still fairly low in confidence. Some isolated PoPs do
exist over the Sangres and San Juans, but have been trending down
the last day or so and dissipate by Sunday evening.

Current model blends have temps warming up decently in the early
part of next week, with potential highs in the high 50s over the
plains Monday, but after that the long term models diverge greatly,
with the GFS building in an upper ridge while the EC sends another
trough through. Only time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 249 PM MST Thu Feb 25 2021

At KCOS, still some shreds of MVFR stratus lingering at/near the
airport as of 22z, though expect at least partial clearing
22z-00z time frame as cloud coverage has been slowly shrinking this
afternoon. Low risk of patchy stratus lingering near or just north
of the terminal this evening, before winds become weak and slightly
downslope after about 03z. Some low risk of ground fog 10z-12z if
winds become light enough, but confidence is too low to include in
the taf for now. On Tue, NW flow aloft and at the surface will bring
VFR conditions through the day.

At KPUB, VFR tonight and Friday. Still a low risk of ground fog
toward sunrise with light winds and melting snow, though models hint
at enough drainage flow to keep it out of the taf at this point.

At KALS, VFR tonight and Friday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN