Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 061745
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1145 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Key messages:

1) Quite a few showers expected in the mountains today, not so much
on the plains. Locally heavy rains over the high terrain.

Currently...

Skies were predominantly clear across nearly all the region at 3 AM.
However, low cloud products were indicating some clouds over parts
of north central el Paso county. Temps at this hour were generally
in the mid 50s across the plains, around 50 larger valley sand 30s
and 40s mtns.

Today...

Flow is fcst to remain weak over the region today. However, PWAT
values remain rather high. Main forcing today will be from heating,
and with plenty of moisture over the region the mtns will be favored
for precip this afternoon. Flow aloft is weak NW while lower level
flow in southeasterly, so some weak directional shear is in place.
Typically in NW flow situations like this, storms will move down the
spine of the mtns, especially the Sangres, and thus several of the
old burn scars over the Sangres will be under the gun today for
potential flash flooding.

As for the lower elevations, guidance is not showing much in the way
of precip today, so I do not expect much if any precip pushing
beyond the I-25 corridor region during the daylight hours. With that
said, some better forcing is noted down along the CO/NM border, so
we may see some showers along the Raton Mesa later today. I would
also not be too surprised to see a few showers over the Palmer by
later this afternoon.

We will see more sun today over the plains today, and likewise
temps should be pushing 80 across parts of the plains.

Tonight...

Showers over the high terrain will linger into the evening hours
then dissipate.

We may see a bit better chance of some isolated showers during the
early evening hours pushing off the mtns onto the plains. In
addition, guidance indicating some showers over the Raton Mesa and
along the KS border later tonight. Not too confident with this
solution but cant rule it out either, so kept some low end pops
through the overnight hours over these locations. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled pattern continues with daily showers and storms across
the mountains.

2) Chances for severe weather increase starting Thursday.

3) Temperatures will warm to around seasonal averages.

Our sensible weather this week will continue to be dominated by
fairly weak and disorganized flow aloft, with moisture remaining
across our higher terrain. The low pressure system near the west
coast will ever-so-slowly drift to the north-northeast.

Available moisture will decrease somewhat moving into Wednesday, which
will limit but not completely eliminate precipitation coverage.
Decreased cloud cover will allow high temperatures to increase, into
the 70s to low-80s. Meanwhile, these conditions will also support
mid-afternoon thunderstorm development, with the extra heating
increasing instability a bit. However, flow aloft still appears weak
and disorganized, meaning that while the risk of severe storms is
low, flash flooding from slow-moving storms will continue to pose an
issue.

Moving towards the end of the work week, these conditions mostly
continue, aside from a change in the mid-level flow as the upper low
begins to push north. Flow aloft increases slightly, giving us a bit
more shear to work at while maintaining weak to moderate
instability. While available moisture content Thursday-Friday is
still a bit unclear between model solutions, and a tad on the low
side either way, chances for developing storms becoming strong to
severe increases. Daytime temperatures will also level out around
seasonal averages, with 70s-80s across most of our area.

Looking into this weekend, the synoptic energy from the low will
encroach on our area as a mid-level wave, giving us additional lift
and shear. Overall, chances for stronger to severe storms will be
increasing and temperatures will remain about the same.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and spread off into
the adjacent plains and valleys during the late afternoon and
evening. KALS and KCOS have the best chance for VCTS so have
included this in both TAFs after 20-22z time frame. Chance looks
too low for KPUB so have kept VCSH. However, all three terminals
will likely see convective outflow winds with directions becoming
northwest to westerly towards 23-00z. Although odds look low for
a stronger storm to impact the terminals directly, brief MVFR to
even IFR cigs/vis could occur under the stronger storms. Storms
should diminish after 01z for the terminals with winds diminishing
and skies clearing towards morning. Winds will predominantly be
diurnally driven with another round of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms possible on Wednesday. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT


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