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000
FXUS65 KPUB 191208 CCA
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
508 AM MST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM MST Sat Jan 19 2019

Dry weather will return to southern Colorado today.  Northwest flow
aloft will remain windy across the higher elevations, particularly
central mountains.  Should see some gusts to around 40 mph spread
down into the adjacent lower elevations of Chaffee and Lake counties
at times today, particularly up around Buena Vista and Cottonwood
Pass. Elsewhere, expect lighter winds. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 40s and lower 50s for the lower elevations. Most
problematic area will be the San Luis Valley where overnight lows
have fallen into the negative single digits.  With less wind today,
and persistent snowpack, have doubts that we will reach the mid 30s
and guidance suggests.  Have cut back high temperatures by around 10
degrees for the center part of the valley, and may not have gone
cold enough.

Tonight...warming temperatures aloft and lee trough should keep
usual draining locations mild, while valleys and lower elevations
radiate well.  With lighter winds through a deeper layer tonight,
suspect the San Luis Valley will see some patchy fog develop late
tonight into Sunday morning.  Have played this scenario out in the
grids but there is some uncertainty regarding the potential and how
widespread it will be.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM MST Sat Jan 19 2019

Ridging across the region provides two more warmer days, Sunday and
Monday, before we come back down to reality, so get out and enjoy
it! Large scale troughing develops by Tuesday with the next shot
of snow coming with the passage of the developing trough later on
Monday into Tuesday.

Activity is expected to be quick but there is a decent amount of
moisture and lift with the system to allow for a light accumulation
from the Divide to the Plains, so basically our entire CWA. There is
a period from Monday afternoon into the early evening hours where we
could easily exceed 1"/hour rates over the Sangre`s northeastward
towards the Palmer Divide. The intensity is driven by ample elevated
instability and the passage a weak 700MB low pressure circulation
across the northern part of our region. Again the activity should
be quick hitting before pulling off to the east- northeast with
north- northwest flow kicking in by early Tuesday morning and
drying us out.

Northwest flow dominates the pattern through the end of the period
with another weak impulse swinging through with deeper mid-level
troughing to our east where the coldest air of the season will be
sitting. With us being on the fringe, as of now, temperatures in
general will be slightly below seasonal averages with minor
fluctuations to around average by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 427 AM MST Sat Jan 19 2019

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today.  Strong winds aloft
should largely keep fog at bay across the San Luis Valley, but will
continue to monitor satellite products for potential development and
amend as necessary.  Winds will be lighter and swing around from the
southeast around 10 kts in the afternoon for both KCOS and KPUB.  A
better potential for fog exists for the San Luis Valley tonight and
will include the potential for IFR conditions after 09z for KALS taf
site.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...KT