Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
341 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Southwest flow aloft will be found over the area today and
tonight. The weather will be dry, with the possible exception of a
few showers along the Continental Divide this afternoon and
tonight. The main concern for today will be the potential for high
fire danger. Southerly winds will be breezy in many locations
today, but the limiting factor will be min RH values. At this
time, it looks like min RH`s will be above 15% over the far
southeast plains and will be marginal over southern El Paso
county, but will be below 15% from Pueblo county southward to the
southern CO border. The San Luis Valley may see marginal Red Flag
conditions as RH`s fall to around 15 percent for a couple/few
hours this afternoon. For now, will leave the Red Flag Warning as
is in areal coverage and timing. Temps today will be above
average, with highs mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s across
the southeast plains, upper 50s to upper 60s in El Paso county,
and in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the San Luis and Upper
Arkansas River Valleys.

Tonight, low level southeast winds are expected to bring some low
level moisture into some of the southeast plains, with the
potential for low clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Sunday...An upper trough over the Pacific NW Sun morning will
move into the Great Basin by the evening, bringing a return of
snow showers to the central mts by the aftn. More importantly,
increasing southwest flow aloft will produce another day of warm
temps for the eastern plains, as well as a continued threat of
critical fire weather conditions. Therefore, issued a Fire Weather
Watch for portions of the forecast area for 18z to 01z, with the
focus area being the San Luis Valley, lower elevations of the
Southern Sangres and both Huerfano and Las Animas Counties. Look
for highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and
mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains.

Monday through Thursday...Long range models still indicate a
split flow regime for the upcoming work week as the upper trough
over the Great Basin on Mon divides into an upper shortwave over
the northern Rockies, and a closed low dropping south into AZ Mon
night. The low tracks across AZ and NM Tue into Wed, reaches the
TX Panhandle Wed night, then rejoins the northern wave over the
central US on Thu. Mon is expected to be the last warm day as
west-southwest downslope winds will still be in place for much of
the day, with snow increasing over the higher terrain. Pcpn
spreads across all of the forecast area Mon night through Tue,
there will be a brief break in pcpn overnight Tue night, then
showers return Wed through Thu aftn. Look for maximum temps in the
50s for the high valleys and mid 50s to around 70F for the plains
on Mon, mid 40s to mid 50s for most areas Tue, then 50s to around
60F for most areas Wed and Thu.

Friday...Northwest flow aloft settles in across the region
starting Thu eve as pcpn comes to an end for the forecast area.
Fri is expected to be dry and warmer, with highs in the 50s for
the high valleys and 60s for the plains. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS the next 24
hrs. KCOS should see south to southeast afternoon winds with gusts
around 30 kts. KPUB should see southeast winds this afternoon,
with gusts probably between 20 and 25 kts. KALS should have south
to southwest winds this afternoon, with gusts around 25 kts. Winds
will decrease in the evening.


Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for COZ224-225-229-230-233.



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