Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 232101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
301 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Currently, water vapor satellite imagery shows a closed upper low
exiting out of northeast Colorado, while another shortwave trough
progresses east across northern California. Between the two systems,
most of the forecast area is dry with patchy mid to upper level
cloud cover. Isolated light snow showers are still present in the
mountains under weak energy in westerly flow. Temperatures across
the plains span the 50s to around 60, while the high valleys are in
the 40s.

Tonight, isolated snow showers should persist along the Continental
Divide, with little to no accumulations. The rest of the forecast
area will remain dry with light winds. Temperatures across the
plains are forecast to drop into the low 30s, while the high valleys
will span the 20s.

Tomorrow, the northern California shortwave will advance east across
the Great Basin and then Colorado during the day. Large scale
forcing associated with the relatively weak wave will spawn the
development of isolated to scattered snow showers across the high
terrain. Snow levels will be around 8,000 feet during the afternoon.
Generally, 1-4 inches of snowfall should fall by early evening
across most of the mountains, with the highest amounts favoring the
central mountains and the La Garitas. By late afternoon, isolated to
scattered rain showers will spread east to the I-25 corridor. With
weak instability expected, a few weak isolated thunderstorms are
also possible during the afternoon across the mountains and I-25
corridor. Otherwise, it will be a pleasant day across the plains,
with generally light winds and highs in the mid 60s. Colorado
Springs and the high valleys should see daytime temperatures in the
mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2019

A weather disturbance will be moving across southern CO Sun night,
but is expected to exit the area to the east by Mon morning.  This
system is forecast to bring some scattered showers to the area Sun
evening, mainly over the central CO mtns, the eastern mtns and
plains.  By late night, just some lingering showers are expected
over the far southeast plains.

Dry weather is then expected on Mon as an upper level ridge builds
over the area.  On Tue the upper ridge axis is expected to move east
of the area in the late afternoon.

Mon night and into Tue morning, the NAM shows an increase in low
level moisture, coming up from the south, over the eastern CO
plains, with significant low cloud cover along with the potential
for fog and some light precip. The NAM keeps low clouds over areas
near the eastern border into the early afternoon. However, the GFS
is not nearly as moist, and keeps the potential for some low clouds
mostly along the eastern CO border. The EC shows the potential for a
period of low clouds Tue morning, but they clear out for the
afternoon.  Right now, forecast temp guidance is not in good
agreement for locations across the southeast plains because of these
model difference, so there is some uncertainty as to how warm high
temps will be on Tue over eastern area but above average temps can
be expected.  As for the rest of the forecast area on Tue, dry
weather is expected with above average high temps.  There could be
some windy conditions Tue afternoon over the far southeast plains
and depending on how much drying in the low levels occur, conditions
could get close to being critical with regards to fire weather.

A tap of low level moisture from the Gulf is expected to be moving
northward over eastern NM Tue night, some of which may make it into
the far southern portions of CO by Wed morning.  Some breezy
southerly winds are forecast Tue night over portions of southeast
CO.  Southwest to west winds ahead of a west coast trof on Wed is
expected to push that low level moisture east on Wed.  A weak
disturbance in the flow Wed, is expected to cross the southeast
corner of CO Wed and could help generate some precip over that area
Wed.  Otherwise dry weather is expected across southern CO Wed, and
temps will be well above average across eastern areas, with some
readings in the 80s.  The high valleys will remain above average as
well.  Southwest winds on Wed are expected to be breezy to windy and
RH values will likely drop in some areas to around 15 percent or
even a little lower.  If the fuels are dry, some areas could see
critical fire weather conditions Wed afternoon.

By Thu morning, the GFS has an upper trof moving into the Great
Basin, and then moves the system across CO Thu and into Thu night.
The ECMWF has this system as well, it is just a little slower. The
old run of the ECMWF showed a closed low over southeast CO by 12Z
Fri, but the 12Z run has the low in western NE. So the EC is
starting to trend farther north like the GFS, leading to less of a
chance for precip over southern CO Thu and Thu night, except along
the CONTDVD. Windy conditions are expected across southern CO on
Thu, but by late afternoon or early evening, a front is expected to
begin backing into southeast CO.

Another system drops into the Great Basin Friday night, and then the
track of this system varies between models and thus forecast
confidence is low at this time for Sat.  However, it does looks like
the weather will probably be unsettled with chances for precip,
especially over the mtns.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2019

VFR conditions are expected at the three TAF sites (KALS, KCOS,
KPUB) over the next 24 hours. Winds will become light at the three
sites this evening, and remain less than 15 knots through tomorrow.
Tonight through early tomorrow afternoon, conditions will remain
dry. From late afternoon through early evening tomorrow, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will threaten the three TAF
sites, causing brief gusty and erratic winds.




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