Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 222144 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
344 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...Snow for the Continental Divide tonight and Friday with strong
winds and high fire danger for the I-25 corridor and southeast
plains Friday afternoon...

Upper trough moving onshore across the west coast this afternoon
with lead short wave lifting northeastward into the Great Basin.
Regional radar loop indicates precip moving into wrn CO as of 20z,
and high mountain AWOS obs suggest a few flurries reaching the
Continental Divide as well. Winds have begun to increase ahead of
the wave as well, with areas from I-25 westward gusting 20-25 kts.

Tonight, snow ramps up along the Continental Divide as upward motion
ahead of incoming trough increases, though heaviest precip may hold
off until Fri morning when trough is moving overhead. Interior
valleys and eastern mountains will see some showers as well,
especially after sunrise Fri. Snow levels look to stay fairly high
overnight, around 9-10k feet, and advisory for the higher elevations
of the Sawatch and San Juan ranges looks in good shape. Some concern
about mountain wave induced high winds over the srn Sangres late
tonight as cross sections show a weak mountain top stable layer, but
with upper jet moving overhead by Fri morning, forward shear
develops quickly and window looks too short for a high wind

Friday, wave races quickly into the plains, with forcing for
snowfall fading after 18z as upward motion ends and moisture thins
out. Main story Fri will be strong winds and high fire danger on the
plains, as deep mixing develops under band of 40-50 kt 700h flow.
Suspect we`ll see widespread gusts in the 45-55 mph range along and
east of the mountains from late morning into the afternoon, with
strongest winds near the NM border where mid level flow is slightly
stronger. Dewpoints in the teens/20s and max temps in the 70s/80s
will produce humidity around 10 percent at many locations, which
certainly justifies SPC`s critical to extreme fire weather outlook
over the southeast plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Friday night-Sunday...Short wave ridging builds across the region
Friday night and Saturday gives way to increasing southwesterly flow
aloft Saturday night and Sunday, as more Eastern Pacific energy digs
across the West Coast. Other than a few flurries possible across the
ContDvd early Friday night and again Sunday afternoon, dry weather
is expected across the area through the weekend. However, increasing
southerly return flow across the Southeast Plains on Saturday could
lead to critical fire weather conditions across the Southern I-25
Corridor and portions of the Southeast Plains, with gusty southerly
winds of 15 to 30 mph along with minimum humidity levels dropping to
around 15 percent Saturday afternoon. With that said, we have issued
a Fire Weather Watch for this area on Saturday. Could see critical
fire weather conditions across these same areas on Sunday as well,
with the increasing southwest winds aloft mixing down across the
lower elevations Sunday afternoon. Temperatures on Saturday cool
slightly from Friday, though are still expected to be above seasonal
levels in the 60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations, and
mainly 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Temperatures on Sunday
look to be slightly warmer than Saturday.

Sunday night-Tuesday...Latest models are coming into better
agreement with a developing split flow pattern into early next week,
with a progressive northern stream upper trough translating across
the Northern Rockies Sunday night and Monday, which continues across
the Northern High Plains Monday night and Tuesday, as a cutoff low
in the southern stream digs across the Great Basin and into Southern
Arizona through the day Tuesday. With that said, will see increasing
chances of precipitation across the ContDvd late Sunday night and
Monday, with the best chances for rain and snow showers across the
Eastern Plains, especially along and west of the I-25 Corridor,
coming late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, as low level
upslope behind a passing cold front across the Eastern Plains Monday
afternoon, combines with moist southerly flow aloft associated with
an ejecting short wave from the main southern stream cutoff low.
With the main piece of the southern system stream digging well
south of the area, latest models have backed off on the amounts of
precipitation across the area from previous runs, however, there
looks to be some much needed precipitation in the offing for
areas over and near the higher terrain, along with at and below
seasonal temperatures far the early part of next week.

Wedensday-Thursday...A lower confidence forecast into the end of
next week, as models, in various ways, eject the Desert SW low
across the Southern Rockies. Most models, including the GFS H5
ensemble mean keep the system and best chances of precipitation with
the ejecting system south of the Southern Colorado. At any rate,
blended model solution has mainly slight pops across the area for
Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures remaining at to slightly
below seasonal levels through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

VFR conditions at all taf sites the next 24 hours with very windy
conditions through much of Friday. At KALS, gusty SW winds early
this evening will diminish briefly, then increase again after
midnight with gusts to 25 kts by sunrise. Winds increase further on
Fri, with gusts to 35 kts by late morning and 45 kts in the
afternoon. At KCOS and KPUB, gusty S-SE winds briefly diminish
overnight, then switch to a more W-SW direction and increase again
Fri morning, with gusts 25-30 kts by 16z-17z, and near 40 kts after
19z. Over the mountains, a few snow showers will develop along the
Continental Divide this evening, with steadier and heavier snow
bringing IFR cigs/vis overnight and Friday. Eastern
mountains/interior valleys will see -shsn develop tonight and
Friday, with higher peaks occasionally obscured.


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday for COZ226>237.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for COZ227>233.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM MDT
Friday for COZ060-068.



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