695
FXUS65 KPUB 200947
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
347 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonably warm today.

- Warming trend and mainly dry weather expected into Friday.

- Increasing potential for afternoon showers and storms over the
  Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025

Dry and breezy northwest flow sets in across the region today,
leading to warm temperatures and generally quiet conditions with
clearing skies. Highs this afternoon will be in the 60s to
mid-70s across most of our CWA, with no precipitation expected,
outside of a low-end chance for an isolated shower or two over
the central mountains this afternoon. Spotty critical fire
weather conditions will be possible over the San Luis Valley for
a few hours this afternoon as well, but fuels are still green
enough to mitigate concerns for highlights at this time. For
Tonight, dry conditions continue, with lows in the 40s over the
plains and in the high 20s to mid-30s over the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025

Dry and warmer Wednesday with flat upper ridge building over the
southern Rockies. Upper wave passing by to the north then pushes
a weak cold front through the area Wed night, with strengthening
sely upslope on Thursday bringing back modest (surface
dewpoints in the 40s) low level moisture to the plains by Thu
evening, along with slightly cooler max temps. Doesn`t appear
we`ll have much in the way of forcing for thunderstorms with
ridge overhead and will thus keep pops out of the forecast,
though will acknowledge a few models/ensemble members at least
try to generate some weak/brief convection near the eastern
mountains by Thu evening. Rough model consensus then suggests
low level moisture gets briefly pushed eastward out of Colorado
Friday, before quickly sloshing back westward Fri evening behind
a weak boundary dropping south through the plains. Daytime
hours Fri look mostly dry and warmer, then at least a low chance
for storms develops Friday evening along and east of the
mountains as deeper instability develops. Weekend then appears
to feature better chances of more widespread shower/thunderstorm
activity as low level moisture remains in place and a slow
moving upper trough drifts through the state. 00z models/ensembles
would suggest Sun/Mon have the greatest potential for cooler
and wetter conditions, though confidence in timing of upper
level features and associated precip is still somewhat low at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds this afternoon will generally be out of the west and
somewhat breezy. A few gusts of 15-20 knots will be possible, though
infrequent, with the highest chance at KALS. Meanwhile, winds at
KPUB will briefly turn southeasterly this afternoon for a few hours
before returning to west-northwesterly this evening. Clouds linger
through the rest of the overnight hours, but will continue to clear
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO