Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 312252

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
350 PM MST Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Expect warmer than normal temperatures into the weekend,
although ample cloudiness prevailing into Wednesday. A few showers
may produce mostly sprinkles Wednesday afternoon across higher
terrain east of Tucson. Otherwise, dry conditions with gusty
afternoon winds at times into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...IR satellite imagery and surface observations depicted
widespread mostly mid and high-level clouds from southeast Arizona
westward to just off the southern California coast, and
southwestward to near 22N/122W. Various 31/12Z models suggest that
the bulk of the cirriform clouds will move east of this forecast
area by around daybreak Wednesday. However, the bulk of models and
especially the HREF suggest that ample mainly mid-level clouds will
prevail into Wednesday afternoon followed by rapidly decreasing
clouds Wednesday evening.

There may be enough moisture and synoptic scale ascent to promote a
few showers near the highest peaks across eastern sections Wednesday
afternoon. For this forecast issuance, have made no change to the
inherited PoPs for Wednesday afternoon. Thus, have maintained a
slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon mainly across the White
Mountains and precip-free conditions elsewhere. Clearing skies
Wednesday afternoon followed by clear skies to mostly clear skies
into the weekend, and most likely next Monday. Expect gusty
afternoon winds Wednesday and Thursday, although speeds should
remain below Wind Advisory criteria.

Have noted that the 31/12Z GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/ECENS were fairly
similar with the depiction of a fairly deep and progressive upper
trough to move into the southwest CONUS next Tuesday. These
solutions were generally more robust with precip potential for this
forecast area next Tuesday versus the NBM which depicted just single
digit PoPs for this area. Per coordination with neighboring WFO`s,
have opted for continued dry conditions next Tuesday.

Expect above normal daytime temps into this weekend followed by a
cooling trend Monday into Tuesday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
BKN-OVC cloud decks mostly above 15k ft MSL into Wednesday afternoon
then decreasing clouds just after end of valid period. Surface wind
variable in direction under 12 kts into early Wednesday morning.
Surface wind late Wednesday morning and afternoon swly to nwly
12-22 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. The strongest speeds will likely
be east of KTUS, then winds diminish shortly after end of valid
period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions persist except for the slight chance
of showers across the White Mountains Wednesday afternoon. Expect
above normal high temperatures through the weekend, with minimum
humidities around 10-15% each afternoon. Winds will become breezy at
times, particularly during the afternoon Wednesday and Thursday, and
perhaps again early next week.





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