092
FXUS65 KTWC 120810
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
110 AM MST Fri Jun 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy afternoons with temperatures near to just
above normal into next week. Increasing moisture is this weekend and
into early next week resulting in precipitation chances mainly from
Tucson south and eastward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest IR/WV satellite imagery shows mid level
southerly flow between an upper low near 26N/120W off the coast of
Baja and an upper high extending from the Gulf Coast states into
Texas. This flow regime has allowed considerable mid and upper level
moisture to stream in, especially from Tucson westward where PWATs
have increased to 1 to 1.3 inches. Embedded within this southerly
flow are a couple of weak disturbances and that is helping to set
off some virga or even light showers per the latest KEMX radar
imagery. We haven`t seen any observed measurable rain yet this
morning but can`t rule out just enough rain to wet the ground west
to south of Tucson early this morning. Transitioning into the
afternoon hours, the deepest moisture will still remain to the west
of Tucson but not much upper level support for storms over the
western deserts. There is a slight chance (10-20%) for
showers/thunderstorms closer to some of the terrain influences near
the Int`l border in Santa Cruz and south-central Pima County with
less than 10 percent chances elsewhere. Any measurable rainfall is
expected to be minimal today with main concern being gusty winds and
lightning with any storms that manage to form.

Over the course of the weekend, deeper moisture will overspread all
of southeast Arizona with PWAT values increasing to about 0.8" to
1.4" (lower east/higher west) and these values are about 150% to
225% of normal for this time of year. Meanwhile, corresponding
surface dewpoints will also increase into the 50s for most valley
locations. These moisture levels are certainly high enough to
support isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
for portions of SE AZ. The mid/upper level high will shift into
Sonora this weekend resulting in more of a westerly flow regime
which would focus showers and thunderstorm chances (10 to 40%
Saturday and 20-50% Sunday) from Tucson south and eastward. Main
concern with any storms this weekend will include gusty outflow
winds (with blowing dust) and lightning.

Early next work week the westerly flow will start to bring in drier
air but still enough residual moisture for thunderstorm chances
Monday from Tucson south and east before residual slight chances (10-
20%) are limited to along the Int`l border from Nogales eastward
Tuesday through Thursday.

Temperatures generally near normal through the forecast period with
afternoon breezes each day.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z. SCT-BKN clouds for 10-13k ft AGL
and AOA 20k ft AGL through the valid period with the least cloud
coverage for KDUG and near the NM border. There is a slight chance
of -SHRA/-TSRA for KOLS this afternoon with any storms capable of
producing localized wind gusts of 30-35 kts. Otherwise, SFC winds
light and terrain driven less that 10 kts trough 12/18Z, then
becoming WLY/NWLY 8-14 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, with gusts to 30
kts at KSAD. SFC winds then diminish again to 10 kts or less aft
13/04Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will remain west/northwest each day into
early next week with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 22 mph
across much of the area with stronger speeds of 15-20 mph and
gusts to 30 mph in lower elevations of Graham county. Moisture will
be on the rise through the weekend. Minimum relative humidity 10-20
percent today and 20-30 percent in the mountains, progressively
increasing to 15-30 percent in lower elevations and 30-40 percent in
the mountains by Sunday. This will bring bring slight chances (10-20
percent) for showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and
lightning today mainly along the Int`l border south to southwest of
Tucson, with better chances (10-50 percent) from Tucson south and
eastward this weekend through Monday. Residual slight (10-20
percent) storm chances linger along the Int`l border from Nogales
eastward through the middle of next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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