Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 042147
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 PM MST Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will continue to maintain
hotter than normal temperatures over the region. The high will weaken
slightly through mid-week allowing for slight cooling and a continued
chance of afternoon thunderstorms. As the weekend approaches, dry
southwest flow and then the high building again will result in less
thunderstorm activity and hotter temperatures Friday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity this afternoon has so far been
confined to the Chiricahua Mtns. Out west cloud cover continues
to push N from NW Sonora MX under southerly flow aloft. A few
light showers/virga likely have been occurring across wrn/cntrl
Pima county where dewpoints were in the 50s. This cloud cover
associated with a weak upper level feature that was located over
nrn Baja per afternoon WV imagery. East of this feature upper
level divergence will be increasing thru the evening hours. Still
looking at mostly isolated thunderstorms across Santa Cruz and
Cochise counties.

The area will continue to be between high pressure to our east and
a weak upper level trof to our west. Not a favorable SW flow aloft
pattern but we have enough moisture around and instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly east and south of
Tucson, both days. With the 300 mb high to our south and the trof
to our W/NW there will be upper level divergence over the area for
a few storms to get strong both days.

Thereafter through the upcoming weekend in early next, nonsoon2020
continues will limited daily thunderstorm activity mainly near the
Intl border. Heating up also with heat risk issues cropping back
into the forecast Sunday into early next week. What I can`t tell

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 06/00Z.
FEW/SCT clouds AOA 10-14k ft MSL moving north from KOLS north to
KTUS. Still expecting afternoon isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA
from mainly KTUS south and east with the best chance at KOLS. Any
storm activity will diminish around sunset. SFC winds will favor a
westerly direction between 5- 9kts, with a gust to 18kts possible.
A better chance for SHRA/TSRA exists tomorrow afternoon for
KTUS/KOLS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal temperatures continue through the week
and into the weekend. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms favoring locations from Tucson south and
eastward the rest of today and on Wednesday, then mainly areas east
of Tucson Thursday through the weekend as drier air moves in from
the west. 20-foot winds will generally follow typical diurnal
patterns at less than 15 mph. However, thunderstorms may produce
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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