Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 171056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
356 AM MST Tue Sep 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated afternoon thunderstorms today through
Thursday east of Tucson. Dry conditions this weekend with the
prospects of tropical moisture returning to the area early next
week. Seasonably warm daytime temperatures this week.


.DISCUSSION...Radar scope rather quiet early this morning after a
busy Monday afternoon and evening. Most of SE AZ was clear as of
245 am except for partly to mostly cloudy conditions east of a
Clifton to Nogales line. PWAT values across the area range from
between 0.7" and 1.1".

The area will remain under the influence of an upper level trof
over the western CONUS. Much less active day versus yesterday with
bulk of storms being south and east of Tucson. Slight chance of
storms on Wednesday, mainly near the higher terrain east and south
of Tucson.

A deepening western CONUS trof on Thursday will keep a slight
chance of storms over the higher terrain east and south of Tucson.
This trof will move across the state late Thursday into Friday
bringing with it drier air for dry conditions across the area
Friday and thru most of the weekend.

Things potentially looking interesting early next week with both
the ECMWF and GFS hinting at tropical moisture being pulled north
across the state while an upper level system drops south toward
the desert SW. However ensemble model spread is rather large
early next thus confidence is low at this time but it will be
something to watch as the week progresses.

High temperatures generally right around or slight warmer than
normal thru the 7 day forecast.


.AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon south and east of KTUS. Cloud
decks FEW-SCT 8k-12k ft MSL and SCT-BKN above 20k ft MSL. Surface
wind variable in direction under 12 knots through the morning
becoming northwesterly at 8-12 knots this afternoon into the
evening. Near thunderstorms winds could gust to 30-40 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated afternoon thunderstorms today through
Thursday mainly east of Tucson. Dry conditions this weekend followed
by isolated to scattered thunderstorms next Monday. Seasonably warm
daytime temperatures this week. Light terrain driven winds to
prevail except for breezier conditions on Thursday afternoon across
western Pima County.





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