Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 091037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
337 AM MST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system slowly moving in from the northwest
will bring gusty winds at times and a steady cooling trend through
the week. We may also see a few valley rain and mountain snow
showers, with best chances late Thursday into late Friday.


.DISCUSSION...A weak weather system will move across the area
today bringing breezy to windy conditions and much cooler
temperatures. Guidance is also suggesting a little better shot at
sprinkles or an isolated shower or two. Any amounts will
generally only be a trace to a 0.01" or so.

The RFW looks in good shape for extreme SEAZ, therefore no changes
were made. For more details, please see the fire weather
discussion below.

The rest of the forecast appears largely on track as confidence
continues to increase in the details of the next system Thursday
into Friday. The main impacts will be breezy to windy conditions,
much colder weather, localized blowing dust, and some valley rain
showers and mtn snow showers. The system remains rather cold, so
snow levels down around 4500 feet Friday morning and even
slightly lower Saturday morning remain possible. However don`t
expect much more than a couple inches of snow in the mountains and
light to very light accumulations for any valleys that see brief
snow showers Friday and/or Saturday morning south and east of

The system will be slow to exit by late week with a gradual
warming trend into the weekend.


.AVIATION...Valid through 10/12Z.
BKN-OVC clouds above 15k ft MSL, diminishing from west to east
during the late afternoon/evening period. Brief lowering of cloud
bases will be possible around isolated -SHRA. Light and variable
surface winds increase by afternoon SWLY 15-25 kts and gusts to 25-
35 kts, easing during the evening. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Slight chance of a light sprinkle this afternoon,
generally along a north/south line from Nogales toward the White
Mountains. A better chance for valley rain and mountain snow arrives
overnight Thursday into Friday, but amounts should remain on the
lighter side. Critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon south and east of Tucson, although RH values will be right
on the edge of criteria. Wind speeds decrease thereafter, but
general breeziness remains the theme for the week, especially for
eastern Cochise County.


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MST this
evening for AZZ151-152-154.



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