Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 241045
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
345 AM MST Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...The heat will return for the upcoming weekend,
however it will not be as hot or prolonged as the recent record
breaking heat wave. Thereafter, an increase in deeper moisture
will overspread the region starting late in the weekend and
continuing through the middle of next week. This moisture increase
will moderate temperatures and result in areawide isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Here at TWC, we are loving the smell of creosote and
RHs in the 70-95% range this morning! Expect a muggy morning with
TDs well into the 60s and even the lower 70s. This is also
supporting a little activity this morning. Currently a few
showers/T`storms across far western Pima County located across a
ThetaE axis. Upper level support will wane through the morning,
with less activity expected.

Bndry moves across the area from west to east, ushering in much
drier air this afternoon. Isolated showers/T`storms are expected
from SE Tucson Metro into Cochise County. Any activity ends by
early evening.

SEAZ briefly dries out and heats up this weekend. This will be
short lived, as a robust signature for increased moisture is
prevalent in model simulations and ensemble based guidance. The
overall pattern is a little muddled, but the door is swinging
wide open with abundant moisture moving into the region. This will
kick off daily afternoon isolated/scattered convection beginning
Sunday for far eastern AZ, then expanding to scattered and perhaps
numerous across the rest of the CWA later in the week. There is
also tropical activity to keep an eye on off the coast of MX.
While not expected to directly impact the desert southwest, this
will likely kick off a gulf surge and pool moisture south of the
region that will be available with southeast/east monsoonal flow.
With increased cloud cover and increased precip, temperature will
be near to below average.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
SCT to locally BKN clouds 8k-13k ft AGL today then becoming mostly
clear tonight. Isold -SHRA/-TSRA until early evening, mainly east of
KTUS/KOLS. Surface winds generally light and variable except
becoming westerly at 9-15 kts with a few gusts to near 25 kts this
afternoon. Localized gusts from thunderstorm outflow winds to 35 kts
are possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Another 24 hours of higher humidity levels with a
few isolated showers or thunderstorms through this afternoon. Expect
westerly winds this afternoon in the 10-15 mph range with gusts to
25 mph. Then there will be a dry period Friday into Sunday with hot
and dry conditions and a west to northwest breeze each afternoon.
Afternoon RHs will drop back into the 5-15% range with overnight
recoveries between 20-35%. Late Sunday, the flow is expected to
become easterly, especially Monday onward with a strong increase in
moisture resulting in an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms as well as a strong rise in humidity levels. With
that, winds may be a bit breezy out of the east-southeast at times,
mainly in the Gila Valley.  It looks like a decent monsoon setup
next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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