Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 161020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
320 AM MST Wed Jan 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated rain and high elevation mountain snow showers
north of Safford this morning. Otherwise dry conditions today
into Thursday followed by a chance of valley rain and mountain
snow from Tucson eastward late Thursday night into Friday. Dry
conditions to prevail Saturday into Monday, then a slight chance
of snow showers returns to the White Mountains Monday night into


.DISCUSSION...A few light showers were occurring early this
morning north of a Oracle to Safford line, moving to the NE. Thus
maintained isolated valley showers/mountain snow showers in the
forecast for this morning mainly north of a Safford-Clifton line.
Otherwise sky conditions ranged from partly to mostly cloudy and
this will continue through much of today thanks to incoming mid to
high level clouds associated with an weak upper low that was
located around 600 miles west of the Baja Spur this morning.
Highs today at or slightly cooler than Tuesday.

Partly to mostly cloudy conditions tonight into Thursday as that
weak upper low approaches northern Baja CA tonight and moves
across northern Sonora MX on Thursday. Can`t rule out a few
sprinkles across Cochise county Thursday morning. This system is
being kicked east in advance of strong Pacific system that will be
slamming into the west coast today into tonight. The tail end of
this system will dive across Arizona late Thursday night into
Friday, bringing a chance of valley rain and mountain snow to the
eastern half of the forecast area. Gusty NW winds will also be
associated with this system, especially for NW-SE oriented
valleys where gusts in the 30-40 mph are likely Friday afternoon.

Highs on Thursday 3-5 degrees warmer than today then 3-6 cooler
on Friday.

Colder air mass will bring back low temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s for the coldest eastern/southern valleys this weekend.
Otherwise high pressure aloft building over the state this
weekend will bring warmer temperatures by Sunday.

Upper ridge flattens Monday as a weather system moves through the
Great Basin. This feature could bring a few light snow showers to
the White Mountains Monday night into Tuesday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.
Isolated -SHRA and high terrain -SHSN mainly across Graham and
Greenlee counties ending by the mid morning hours today. Otherwise,
SCT-BKN clouds at 5k-9k ft AGL clearing from west to east thru
16/18Z, with increasing high clouds AOA 20k ft AGL during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Surface wind less than 12 kts and
becoming NLY/NWLY during the afternoon hours. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A few showers will end this morning and then dry
conditions will prevail into Thursday evening. The next chance of
valley rain and mountain snow occurs from Tucson east/northeast
Thursday night and Friday. Dry conditions are expected Saturday into
Monday, with a slight chance of rain and snow showers in the
White Mountains Monday night and Tuesday. Gusty northwest winds
will occur Friday, mainly from Tucson eastward and especially in
the upper Gila River Valley. Some gusty east to southeast winds
may occur Sunday morning. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be under
15 mph.





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