131
FXUS65 KTWC 152036
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
136 PM MST Wed Jan 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A brief warm up will peak Thursday with daytime highs
at about 3-7 degrees above normal. Then a couple weather system move
through bringing a slight chance of showers Thursday Night into
Friday, mainly from Tucson north and northeastward and again around
next Monday. Cooler temperatures return starting Friday and persist
through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Breezy east to southeast winds this afternoon under
full sunshine with temperatures warming up nicely. Southeast Arizona
is under southwest flow aloft as the large scale pattern is defined
by troughiness over the central US with an upper low well west of
Baja in the eastern Pacific underneath a strong ridge. IR satellite
shows considerable cirroform cloudiness over Sonora and some of that
will tend to make its way into our forecast area later this
afternoon and tonight.

The aforementioned upper low to the west of Baja will shift eastward
and open up as it gets absorbed into the main flow pattern by
Friday. As it moves across Arizona Thursday night into early Friday,
there will be just enough moisture and dynamics for a slight chance
(10-30%) of precipitation, mainly focused on the Tucson area north
to northeastward. If and where precipitation does occur, QPF values
remain quite low at less than 0.10" so this system will not have any
significant impact. The warmest temperatures of the forecast period
will occur out ahead of this system during the day Thursday with
highs 3 to 7 degrees above normal. Residual easterly breezes will
diminish by early afternoon and transition to southwesterly.

Cooler temperatures will settle back in on Friday and continue into
next week with dry conditions prevailing through the weekend under
NW flow aloft. Expect breezy afternoon winds Friday and Saturday
around 15 to 20 mph east of Tucson. Still seeing some uncertainty in
the ensemble guidance regarding the next northern stream system
digging southward Monday into Tuesday as the EC/ENS are the most
aggressive on how far west this systems is. We left in place the
slight chance PoPS for eastern areas Monday/Monday night which is
reasonable at this point and will be fine tuned over the next couple
of days. This pattern will keep in place below normal temperatures
into the middle of next week with the potential for additional
freezes in the lower elevations/deserts.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z.
Skies becoming SCT-BKN AOA 20k ft by 16/00Z and continuing thru
16/18Z, then generally SKC thru the end of the forecast period. SFC
wind NELY to SELY thru 16/19Z, generally less than 12 kts at most
locations. Stronger SELY wind at KTUS and KSAD thru 16/00Z, with
wind speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 25 kts. Aft 16/19Z expect sfc
winds to transition to SELY-SWLY mainly at 12 kts or less. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail across much of southeast
Arizona the next 7 days, with a slight chance (15-30%) of light
precipitation from Tucson north to northeast Thursday night into
Friday morning and then again Monday through Monday night (mainly
east of Tucson). East/southeast winds through Thursday morning with
some locales typically exposed to easterly winds gusting to around
20-25 mph. Elevated west/northwest winds are then expected on
Friday, especially in Cochise and Graham counties, with wind speeds
of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. 20-foot winds will be 15
mph or less Saturday and Sunday, with increasing winds again to
start next week. Min RH values will be 12-20 percent in the valleys
and 20-30 percent in the mountains through early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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