839
FXUS65 KTWC 130948
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
248 AM MST Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist
through the week. Daily high temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal, with several degrees above normal expected next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Quiet weather pattern for Southeast Arizona this
week will result in very minor impacts. The overall pattern this
morning is defined by a shortwave ridge across the Desert
Southwest, and a weak dry closed low off the California coastline.
The shortwave ridge axis will track through Southeast Arizona
during the day today, with a weak impulse/area of diffluence
moving into the area late this afternoon into the evening along
the eastern periphery of the approaching low. In addition to a
few degrees of warming, this should result in some mid-level
clouds developing across the area this afternoon. HREF models
continue to depict the potential for weak storm activity near the
White Mountains the next few days, but the airmass is just too dry
for anything but a few buildups.

As we move into the middle of the week, the aforementioned closed
low moves into Arizona Tuesday and Wednesday and phases with an
upper trough digging SW into the Great Basin (thanks to a strong
ridge building into the Pacific Northwest). Although the majority
of Southeast Arizona will remain dry, there should be just enough
mid-level moisture and unstable conditions to result in a slight
chance of a mainly dry storm near the White Mountains Thursday.

Another warm-up is expected next weekend as another shortwave ridge
moves into the area from the west/northwest. There still remains
differences with the ensemble members in the strength of this
feature and the timing and strength of another closed low that
develops under the mean ridge across the Eastern Pacific. At this
time, it doesn`t appear that we will nudge the century mark here
in Tucson next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/12Z. Skies SKC through the morning,
then SCT-BKN mid-level clouds at 12-15 kft MSL in the afternoon
into the early evening. SFC winds winds less than 10 kts and following
typical diurnal trends this morning, becoming westerly/northwesterly
10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts in the afternoon. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon temperatures near to slightly above
normal will persist this week. Min RH values will remain in the
single digits in the valleys, with values generally in the teens
in the mountains. Expect locally breezy west to northwest winds
10-15 mph this afternoon with gusts to 20-25 mph possible. Otherwise,
typical afternoon breeziness will persist through the week each
afternoon due to daytime heating with winds becoming light and
variable overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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