Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 190227

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
927 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018


Latest surface mesoanalysis shows warm front just south of the Red
River, near Choctaw county, curving northwest to surface low in
eastern Colorado. Upper low has now moved into the TX panhandle
and storms have been developing and strengthening over the last
few hours along the cold front in the TX panhandle.

We had a quick shot of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon, with locations north of I-40 receiving a couple tenths
of rain, and locations south receiving none so far.

Latest HRRR/HRRX have been consistent this evening in showing
convective development mainly after midnight, across eastern
Oklahoma. It is not clear how far south this development will be
but if storms form closer to the Red River, they will have access
to better low level moisture. Evening soundings from OUN/FWD
sampled sufficient elevated instability to support some hail given
the strong low level flow and shear fields, so it still appears
our best severe potential will be after midnight.

Lowered the pops until after midnight, but did not remove them
completely given elevated showers on latest radar data. High
precipitation chances continue after midnight as upper
low/surface track will be favorable for widespread showers and
thunderstorms overnight.





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