Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 021116
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions remain fcst for all terminals. Isolated showers and
storms are expected generally south of Interstate 40 today w/
any potential flight impacts too brief to warrant mention at
specific terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Summer-like conditions remain on track for eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas later this week and into the upcoming weekend, as
upper level ridging continues to build into the region. The main
forecast concern during this time frame involve timing any
thunderstorm chances across parts of the area associated with both
weaknesses in the ridge and any tropical interactions.

The first chance for thunderstorms remains on track for this
afternoon and into early evening across parts of southeast
Oklahoma in association with increasing deep layer moisture and an
approaching upper level area of low pressure currently located
across West Texas. Persistent mid and high cloud cover today
should keep afternoon temperatures near yesterday`s values. The
aforementioned upper level low slow to exit the region, another
round of thunderstorms is likely to affect a larger portion of
eastern Oklahoma and especially western Arkansas on Wednesday
afternoon.

Upper level ridging will build eastward into the region Thursday
and into Friday, with any additional thunderstorm chances focused
on the northern and eastern periphery. The best chance for this to
occur will be Thursday across northeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas, however, there is a nonzero potential for areas along
the Kansas and Missouri borders to be brushed by thunderstorms
late Wednesday night and into early Thursday morning as well. Will
leave Wednesday night dry for now but will watch closely.

Heat and humidity will build late this week and into the weekend
with at least some potential for heat related impacts for those
spending a lot of time outdoors, given that this will be the first
prolonged period of heat/higher dew points so far this year.

Moving into early next week, thunderstorm chances will increase
once again Monday and into Tuesday as the current tropical
system near the Yucatan Peninsula moves northward toward the Gulf
Coast. Current model data indicate that parts of southeast
Oklahoma and into western Arkansas would be most likely to see
thunderstorm activity associated with this system once it comes
ashore, but expect some modification in this projection, depending
on the exact path the system eventually takes. At the very least,
temperatures should be decreased a few degrees from the weekend
values due to increased cloud cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  71  90  73 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   86  70  88  70 /  10  10  50  10
MLC   85  70  87  70 /  20  20  30   0
BVO   86  67  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   84  65  85  66 /   0  10  40  10
BYV   84  68  85  69 /   0  10  40  10
MKO   84  69  87  70 /  10  10  20  10
MIO   84  67  87  70 /   0   0  20  10
F10   85  70  87  71 /  10  10  20  10
HHW   85  68  86  68 /  40  20  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....07



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