193
FXUS64 KTSA 091124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cold front is currently located from far NW AR through far SE OK
and westward across N TX. The boundary will continue a slow
advance eastward while becoming more stationary across N TX
through the day. Good agreement in guidance that storms will
initiate along or just north of the boundary by early afternoon
and spread E and NE through the evening. This convection will
likely spread into parts of SE OK with a risk of a few strong to
severe storms given forecast instability along the elevated
frontal zone. The more intense storms will focus south of the Red
River through the day. Further north across NE OK into far NW AR
an isolated high based shower is possible this afternoon, though
most locations will remain dry with cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

High pressure builds across the region Friday into Saturday with
dry weather and near normal temperatures. The pattern aloft will
feature a near stationary closed low over the southwestern CONUS
which is expected to finally move across the southern Plains
Sunday through Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase accordingly with widespread rains appearing likely Sunday
night through Monday. Overall the severe weather potential appears
rather low at this time with limited instability and stronger flow
more south the region.

The flow aloft remains northwesterly through the central CONUS in
wake of the passing upper low and likely beyond as amplified
ridging develops over the western CONUS. This should allow several
stronger cold front to move through the region with the severe
weather potential remaining much less than has recently been seen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Localized VLIFR vsbys/cigs in fog will continue early in the
valid period at KFYV with conditions to improve to VFR after 14z.
Most TSRA that develops this afternoon and evening is expected to
remain south of KMLC/KFSM, but will carry a VCTS mention at KMLC
from 22z-00z. Otherwise, VFR elements will prevail through the
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  53  76  54 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   83  58  78  54 /  20  20   0   0
MLC   81  56  77  53 /  20  20   0   0
BVO   78  49  76  49 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   79  50  73  50 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   77  51  71  50 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   78  53  73  52 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   77  50  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
F10   78  53  74  53 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   82  58  78  54 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...23