Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 242031
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
431 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.UPDATE...
The Aviation Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Above normal temperatures will continue through the forecast
period, with a warm end to one of the warmest Mays of record. Off
and on small chances for thunderstorms can be expected through
much of the period with a warm and humid air mass in place. Better
chances for rain and storms will arrive around mid week as an
upper low with more tropical moisture moves up from the Gulf.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Clear skies will be the rule tonight under the influence of high
pressure. With pretty dry air in the low levels, should see
temperatures drop fairly quickly and not expecting fog
development. Look for lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, similar
to a short term model consensus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

A high pressure system over the area will be on its way out during
the short term. High confidence that southerly flow over the
weekend will keep temperatures up. Temps in the mid to upper 80s
for Friday are expected to climb into the low 90s by Sunday. Heat
index values will top out in the middle 90s. A combination of a
shallow trough from the west and a tropical system out of the Gulf
will bring in low chances of rain and thunderstorms over the
weekend but confidence is low on exact timing. These chances will
be highest in the southern counties closest to the best available
moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

The pattern can be summed up in one word through the extended...
summer. Persistent ridging aloft over the Ohio Valley will
maintain hot and humid conditions across the region through the
period with a gradual increase in tropical moisture courtesy of
the system coming onshore over the northern Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of next week.

The summer-like pattern of late will continue but with even
warmer temperatures than that experienced so far in May as mid
level heights approach 590dam and 850mb temps nearing 18-19C early
next week. Taking into account the feedback from the dry ground
over the region which models notoriously do poorly with...have
upped highs for Memorial Day a bit as all signs point to low 90s
for much of the area. Highs will slowly slip back into the upper
80s by mid week as the tropical moisture fetch increases into the
region and the potential for scattered convection grows.

Carrying low pops focused in the afternoon and evening most days
with diurnally driven convection in the absence of BL shear and
forcing aloft. Have capped pops at high chance Wednesday with
still lower than desired confidence in potential impacts locally
from the tropical disturbance expected to move into the northern
Gulf next week. Considering recent trends over the last few
weeks...would not be shocked to see precip chances drop slowly as
we get into next week. This would certainly be disappointing as
the recent stretch of drier than normal conditions over the last
six weeks has left much of the region in need of rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 242100Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 431 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Updated current conditions only. Previous discussion follows...

VFR conditions will continue through the period.

High pressure will remain firmly in control across the region into
Friday. This will maintain clear skies into early Friday with
perhaps a subtle increase in high level clouds by late day Friday
as cloud debris from convection to our northwest spreads into the
area. Potential is there for a few VFR diurnal cu Friday
afternoon...but confidence is too low for a mention at this time.
Winds will remain generally less than 10kts...primarily from the
E/SE into this evening before veering to southerly Friday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...KH/CP
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan/CP


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