Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 191054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
554 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020


The Aviation section has been updated below.


Issued at 345 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Dry and cool weather is expected through Saturday under the
influence of strong high pressure at the surface. One or more low
pressure systems late in the weekend and especially early next
week, will provide our next opportunities for precipitation.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 345 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Mostly clear skies and cool temperatures expected today with highs
ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s across the area. Blend was
generally in the ballpark with minor adjustments.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 345 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Dry weather will continue throughout the short term. There will be
a period of mostly cloudy conditions tonight into Thursday as an
upper level wave passes over the region, otherwise, clear or
mostly clear skies are expected.

Temperatures will be below normal throughout the period, bottoming
out Thursday into Thursday night, with highs in the mid 20s to low
30s and lows in the teens. Blend appeared a bit too warm at times
and made minor adjustments as such.


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 318 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Good confidence that the long term will start off dry with above
normal temperatures as models support return flow off the Gulf as
surface high pressure ridge moves into the southeastern states on

With the southerly low level flow and impulses ahead of an
approaching Pacific system, precipitation will move in late in the
weekend. The 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF suggest this system will move
from the Four Corners Saturday night to the Missouri Valley on
Monday and the Appalachians on Tuesday.

Backed off the higher PoPs until Sunday afternoon per the 00z GFS
and 00Z ECMWF and inter-office coordination.

Precipitation type will be mostly rain per BUFKIT, but can`t rule
out some snow mixing in during the early morning hours. Don`t expect
any major impact except wet streets.

Best chances of precip looks to be Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Yet another system could bring more widespread precip to the area by
the middle of next week.

Above normal temperatures look good per the blend but confidence in
precise temperatures is low with potential temporal and spacial
errors in the track of the southern system.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 19/12Z TAFs/...
Issued at 554 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

VFR through the period.

Mainly clear skies early in the period, with a gradual increase in
mid and high cloud late. Winds will generally be northerly less
than 10KT throughout, with no obstructions to visibility expected.





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