Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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612
FXUS63 KIND 121057
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
557 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Record early season cold will impact central Indiana today and
tonight in the wake of the system that produced accumulating
snowfall yesterday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will begin
to moderate but remain well below normal later in the week. A weak
clipper system will pass to the north Wednesday night but likely
keep its precipitation well north of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 325 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Aside from a few flurries, the organized snowfall band has moved
well south of the area this morning, and temperatures are steadily
plunging. Will carry a chance of flurries across the northeast for
a few hours this morning, where the lake effect plume may be able
to briefly reach. Otherwise, expect a dry and cold day, with a
likely new record low maximum temperature for Indianapolis around
22 degrees. Cut the blend slightly with the fresh snowfall on the
ground.

Will allow the advisory to keep running until 8 AM as originally
scheduled for the flash freezing of residual moisture on roadways.
Side streets and untreated roads may be treacherous in spots this
morning.

The record low for today is 14, which we may break twice
today...first this morning and again tonight just before midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 325 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Another record cold night for the time of year looks to be on tap
tonight, with much of the area potentially getting down into the
single digits for overnight lows. Cut the blend a couple degrees
with the fresh snowfall not likely to be fully accounted for in
the models yet. The record low for tomorrow is 10, which we may
very well break.

Remainder of the short term will be dry. A weak clipper system
moves just to our north Wednesday night, but low and mid level
profiles are very dry, so expect the precipitation with that
system to be kept north of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 258 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Quiet weather is expected through the extended as the upper level
pattern reverts back to a quasizonal flow with surface high
pressure over the region for much of the period.

Temperatures will remain below normal but warm through the weekend
with highs in the mid and upper 40s by Sunday and possibly into
the lower 50s on Monday. Expect mainly clear skies to start Friday
and Saturday with an increase in clouds for Sunday and Monday as
a weakening upper level wave tracks across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 121200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 557 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

Large high pressure will expand into the region in the wake of the
snow and bring quiet weather to the area through tonight. Any lake
induced clouds from snow bands should largely remain east of the
terminals this morning with just a few cirrus later today and
tonight. Gusty northwest winds will relax by late morning but a
steady 10-15kt wind will linger this afternoon before becoming
light and variable tonight as the center of the high moves into
the Ohio Valley.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Nield
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan



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