Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 060632

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
232 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020


The Long Term section has been updated below.


Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

High pressure over Indiana and Ohio will move slowly toward the
Eastern Great Lakes and Appalachia through Saturday. This will
result in continued dry and cool weather through Saturday.

As the high departs to the east on Sunday...warmer and more humid
air is expected to arrive on southerly winds. This will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms back to Central Indiana
early next week along with more summer like temperatures.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in
place over Indiana...stretching northeast to Central NY. A dry and
cool air mass was in place over Indiana as dew points were in the
comfortable 50s. GOES16 shows mostly clear skies across the
state...while water vapor showed a strong ridge in place over the
Rockies and a weak short wave over Wisconsin and Iowa...pushing
toward Indiana.

Models today suggest the weak short wave over WI will push SE
across Indiana today...exiting the region tonight. GOES16 shows
only minimal mid level cloud with this feature over IA. Lower
level remain dry. Meanwhile at the surface high pressure looks to
remain across Indiana today. Forecast soundings and Time heights
show a dry column through the day. A mid level inversion looks to
be present...which should lead to some flat topped cu this
afternoon as the short wave passes. Otherwise no precip will be
expected wit this feature today as high pressure remains in place
at the surface and moisture is just not available after the past
few days of subsidence and northerly flow. Thus partly cloudy
along with temps at or above the NBM will work nicely.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Dry weather cooler temperatures slowly moderating will be expected
this period.

GFS and NAM allow the previously mentioned short wave to depart
the area tonight...allowing cool...NW flow aloft to return. The NW
flow remains ahead of an upper ridge that remains in place over
the western plains...keeping subsidence in place across Indiana
Tonight through Saturday night.

Forecast soundings tonight through Saturday display subsidence
through the period with dry air descending through time.
meanwhile at the surface high pressure remains over Indiana and
slowly reestablishes itself over OH and WVA by Saturday. Surface
flow through this period remains mainly from the north and
northeast...keeping cool and dry air in place over Indiana. By
Saturday...somewhat warmer air is suggested to begin to move in
to the area as wind turn southerly. Otherwise...look for mostly
sunny days and mostly clear nights as convective temperatures on
Friday and Saturday remain unreachable. Will keep temps at or
above the the NBM.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Models continue to advertise a return to warmer, more humid, and
more active weather during the long term period. That said, NBM
continues to overdo convective pops as it has done most of this
warm season, but with little in the way of obvious targets for
improvement, will generally leave the chance pops alone. Not every
day looks like a washout, in fact few do.

As previously mentioned, temperatures and dewpoints will return
back to the warm side, much more like what a typical August holds.
Heat indices on a couple of days may rise into the upper 90s in


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 060600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1132 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

VFR conditions are expected through the period. However, brief
MVFR fog cannot be ruled out at KLAF/KHUF around sunrise.

Some patchy stratocumulus will linger through the night.
Confidence is lower on fog formation at the western sites, so left
it out. However, cannot rule out some fog near sunrise.

More cumulus will pop up Thursday morning and persist into early





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