Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 190711
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Today - The last nice day to enjoy before rain chances build in for
the work week.

A ridge in the mid-levels sits to the west centered over Iowa. A
large surface high sits over eastern Canada with weak gradients
stretching southwest through the Ohio River Valley. This high is
currently giving the area the current nice weather. This is going to
be short lived as a warm front starts advancing east with the mid-
level ridge. As the day goes on, lower pressure at the surface will
continue to push out the high. This will give areas in eastern
Kentucky a chance for precipitation during the afternoon. Clouds
will hang on more in the southern part of the CWA while the northern
part enjoy more sunshine.

Tonight - Mostly clear skies for all but the furthest in south
central Kentucky

Cloud cover will decrease as the mid-level ridge axis nears the CWA.
Winds will stay near calm, and temperatures will drop to within a
few degrees of 70 with the cooler temperatures being in the
Bluegrass.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Yet another closed low over the Plains will open up and lift ENE
into the Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. Fairly strong sfc
reflection with this one as it cranks up a 1006mb low, which will
enhance the deep-layer shear. Precip chances will increase from SW
to NE on Monday as a warm front lifts northward early in the day.
Highest POPs will be Monday night as a stronger line of storms
pushes through. Instability is quite conditional, especially with
the main line of storms coming through at the diurnal min. SPC
Marginal still makes good sense as mid-level winds approaching 40 kt
will support at least some linear organization and a threat for
gusty winds. Progressive nature of these storms will mitigate the
flood threat, but given recent rains and a very moist air mass, we
can`t write it off completely.

Showers and storms depart to the east early Tuesday, leaving a
transitional day with somewhat breezy conditions. Canadian high
pressure will follow Wednesday and remain in control into Friday,
giving an early taste of fall. Highs on Wed/Thu will stay in the
upper 70s for much of the area, with nighttime lows in the 50s for
the first time since early June.

Temps will recover closer to climo on Friday in developing return
flow, with shower and storm chances returning Saturday with another
progressive upper wave.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Skies are clearing out tonight and the wind is going calm, so the
main focus tonight will be fog. There is a lot of moisture on the
ground and temperatures are dropping near the dewpoint. The current
thinking is all the TAF sites will see fog. The question is how
much. BWG and LEX will likely see VLIFR conditions at times. More
optimistic with HNB and SDF by taking them to MVFR. Expect the fog
to lift around 14z. The rest of today winds will stay calm to 5
knots under VFR conditions.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...KDW
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...KDW


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