Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 221535
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1135 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

A cold front is currently stretched from near Bowling Green to
Cincinnati as it continues to move to the east. Temperatures have
been slightly adjusted to match the location of the front, but the
greater changes have been made to the PoP forecast. PoPs have been
dropped much lower and quicker today. A low chance (10%-15%) will
still remain for those mainly across the southern half of Kentucky,
but PoPs are expected to increase later tonight as mid-level winds
flip from north to southeast. This will cause light precip to expand
back to the northwest from eastern Tennessee into mainly the Lake
Cumberland region. Rain chances will quickly drop off around
daybreak.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

Current surface analysis shows slow moving NE-SW oriented cold front
is located just to the NW of our area, extending from northwest OH
into east-central IN then along the Ohio River through western KY.
Ahead of the front, a weakening area of showers has been pushing
eastward into south-central IN and central KY. With mesoanalysis
indicating little to no elevated instability, lightning activity has
completely diminished over the area, although an occasional rumble
of thunder cannot be ruled out. Area of showers will continue to
work eastward through this morning, likely tapering off across east-
central KY by mid-morning. May see some isolated to widely scattered
showers across the area this afternoon, with low-end thunder chances
over the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions.

Expect low clouds to persist through at least the first half of
today before beginning to scatter out later this afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees below climatological
normals for most today as northerly winds behind the front and
increased cloud cover keep highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
However, from Lake Cumberland into eastern Bluegrass area, highs may
reach into the mid to upper 70s with the later frontal passage.

Slight chance PoPs return tonight for locations generally south of
the Western KY and Bluegrass Pkwys as a weak shortwave passes
through the TN Valley. Otherwise expect mostly dry conditions with
lows in the lower to mid 50s.

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

Monday and Monday night a dome of high pressure will travel from the
Great Lakes to the St Lawrence Valley providing us with cool
northeast breezes. We`ll probably still hold on to a significant
amount of cloud cover thanks to high RH in the 850-700mb layer
coincident with weak isentropic lift. Can`t rule out a few sprinkles
or isolated rain showers, especially Monday morning, but most
locations should remain dry. High temperatures Monday will be
several degrees cooler than normal around 70 with lows that night
right about where they should be at this time of year in the middle
to upper 50s.

An upper trough over the Front Range Monday will deepen and
gradually become slightly more negatively tilted as it very slowly
crosses the Plains Tuesday-Wednesday and the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley/Gulf Coast Thursday before crossing the East Coast Friday-
Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over Texas on
Tuesday and pull its warm front up through central Kentucky and
southern Indiana early Wednesday morning as the low moves into the
middle Mississippi Valley. We`ll then be in the warm sector of the
system until the low crosses the Great Lakes into southeast Canada
swinging its cold front through here sometime on Thursday. With
plenty of access to Gulf moisture, this will be a very wet period
for much of the eastern half of the country. In the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys it looks like most locations will be in line for
1.5-2.5 inches of rain this week, most of it falling during the
Tuesday-Thursday time frame.

The best chances for severe weather Tuesday-Wednesday will likely be
over the southern Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley beneath a
coupled upper jet and ahead of 5H speed maxes dropping down into the
base of the mean upper trough, with deep moisture to act upon. This
is in agreement with SPC chiclet progs. Nevertheless, we`ll still
have enough shear, instability, and moisture for thunderstorms up
here and we could certainly see some strong storms Wednesday
afternoon. Could see some strong storms on Thursday too, depending
largely on the timing of the passage of the aforementioned cold
front.

Weak high pressure over the southeast U.S. should give us drier
weather Friday and Saturday behind the departing storm system.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

IMPACTS:
 - MVFR to IFR ceilings persisting until this afternoon

DISCUSSION:

Weakening area of showers continues to push across the area nearing
KLEX, with mostly dry conditions being observed at the other sites
KHNB/KSDF/KBWG. Behind this area of precip, low-end MVFR and some
IFR ceilings are beginning to move in across the area. These lower
CIGs will continue to spread eastward through the morning hours,
impacting all TAF sites, before eventually improving during the
afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible
during the day, although timing and location is low confidence so
have not included mention in the TAFs. As the front continues to
push through, winds will shift to the NW and then to the N with
speeds around 10 kts. Occasional gusts around 20 kts will be
possible. MVFR CIGs may return to KBWG tonight as another wave of
precip passes to the south and east.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...KDW
Short Term...JML
Long Term...13
Aviation...JML


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