Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 202327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
727 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will provide us with
quiet weather during the short term. High clouds will work their way
into the region tonight and tomorrow and then thicken and lower
slightly Saturday night ahead of an upper low traveling from the
Four Corners to the Ozarks.

Lows tonight will generally be in the 30s. Some patchy frost can be
expected, with areas east of Interstate 75 having the best chances
for more widespread frost, especially in the usual sheltered

.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The Ozarks upper low will drift very slowly across the southeastern
United States before opening up into a trough mid-week. As it does
this, another upper trof will sweep in from the northwest, pushing
through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday...followed by another
upper trough coming in from the northwest to finish out the work

As a result, shower chances will be common in the long term.
Fortunately 7-day rainfall amounts will be light, ranging from 3/4"
in southern Indiana to 1 1/4" in southern Kentucky.

This pattern does not favor severe weather, and this idea is backed
up by model data including CFS severe weather guidance. Even just
general thunder looks sparse...maybe some rumbles Thursday-Friday
with a passing cold front, but chances are too small to include in
the forecast for now. As a result, we have a thunder-free 7-day
forecast going right now here in late April.

This pattern also supports cool, but not cold, temperatures. Highs
should be just a few degrees below normal with lows right around
normal. No frost concerns.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Plan on VFR conditions, light easterly winds, and sct/bkn high
clouds through the period at all TAF sites.


KY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ043.



Short Term...13
Long Term...13
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