Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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563 FXUS64 KJAN 030840 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Through tonight: An MCS which resulted in severe weather across parts of TX and western LA has weakened considerably overnight as it pushed into central MS and south LA. Though this feature will continue pushing past our area without much fanfare, we remain in an active, progressive weather pattern, and the next disturbance awaits not far behind. Scattered shower activity remains possible through this morning as the current MCV continues east, but considerable cloud debris should limit instability enough to prevent more vigorous development. Then attention will turn upstream to another MCS, percolating over western KS early this morning. While there is decent model agreement on this system organizing and moving into our area later this afternoon or this evening, due to the unpredictability of mesoscale features, confidence in timing and location specifics is not high. Boundary interactions throughout the day could easily impact the evolution of this feature. Nevertheless, for now the highest confidence in severe potential is along and west of I-55 late this afternoon into this evening. Storms should generally wane as they get farther east later tonight as instability decreases, but there is still potential for an MCS to make it all the way eastward across the state. There could also be a few scattered stronger storms this afternoon ahead of this complex given the moist and unstable environment that should be in place. Damaging wind gusts, particularly with composite outflows along an MCS, will be the primarily concern with any severe storms, but hail up to quarter size is also possible. /DL/ Tuesday through early next week... High pressure over the eastern CONUS will keep a steady stream of moisture into the area, supportive of daily rain and storm chances for much of the extended period. A period of enhanced activity appears possible later this week as midlevel flow is ample for organization. Overlapping a moist boundary layer, with PWAT generally in excess of 1.7 inches, several rounds of storms appear possible. DCAPE in the 800 to 1300 j/kg range will support downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. There is still a bit of uncertainty regarding timing and evolution of these systems as a lot depends on mesoscale features. Around Thursday night into Friday, a cold front pushes south and along and ahead of it, rain and storm chances will continue. In the wake of the cold front, drier air will shift focus further south for the weekend. There is a chance that the front stalls out and given the lingering moisture reservoir, this may serve as a focus for storms around the Fri/Sat period, however this is only speculation at this time. Will adjust forecast as needed if confidence increases. This weekend, high pressure shifts east, relaxing flow aloft and diminishing low level return flow. Still, moisture remains elevated given lack of airmass change and isolated storms will be possible. Into early next week, the moisture axis shifts west, which should shift the bulk of activity towards Texas./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions prevail across the majority of the area, but a weakening band of SHRA and a few TS are approaching the MS River early this morning and may result in brief categorical reductions around HEZ. Otherwise, MVFR to locally IFR stratus are expected to redevelop through the early morning hours, scattering and lifting to VFR by late morning/midday. Additional development of SHRA and TS is expected later in the day tomorrow potentially continuing into the evening. It is too soon to pin down specific timing at each site, but periodic reductions will be possible with this convective activity. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 89 71 89 73 / 60 30 30 10 Meridian 89 69 90 71 / 50 30 40 10 Vicksburg 89 71 90 73 / 60 30 20 10 Hattiesburg 89 72 90 73 / 60 20 40 10 Natchez 88 71 89 72 / 60 20 20 10 Greenville 86 72 89 74 / 60 40 30 10 Greenwood 87 71 89 73 / 50 40 30 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/SAS