104
FXUS63 KIWX 070409
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1209 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous swim conditions to persist through Friday at Berrien
  county beaches.

- Gusty afternoon/early evening winds Friday both over land and
  water.

- Seasonably cool temperatures into the weekend trending warmer
  next week.

- More days of dry versus wet conditions for the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

All things considered, for being under the influence of a rather
active NW upper level flow, much of the period will be
generally quiet with a few chances for showers but no larger
systems.

CAA will persist for the next couple of days with steep lapse
rates resulting in mixing of somewhat higher wind fields aloft
this afternoon. A similar setup is expected once again late Fri
morning into the early evening hours. While not overly a big
concern over land, the NW winds will bring dangerous conditions
for those wandering into the waters of Lake Michigan,
especially in Berrien county, with beach related headlines
persisting through tomorrow and possibly into the evening
hours.

A stronger disturbance and associated weak sfc low will track
towards the region on Saturday. While the air mass aloft (500
mb) won`t be overly cool for this time of year, mid level lapse
rates of 6 C/KM or more are still expected with the arrival of
this feature resulting in mainly diurnally driven showers.
Overall QPF will be minimal given limited moisture to work with.
Slight chc to chc pops are in place Sat afternoon and evening
to address the chances, but by no means will this be an all day
rain.

While upper level heights will increase and flatten somewhat any
impacts in terms of allowing warmer temperatures will be
minimized as the flow remains active with successive troughs
keeping a somewhat cooler setup in place. Each wave will have
small chances for some showers, but the greatest coverage will
coincide with afternoon/evening timing, something difficult to
time out several days in advance. In addition, med range models
have massive differences in timing and strength of these
features. As a result, some periodic small chances for showers
exist due to models blends through the rest of the period with
maybe better chances by the end before heights begin to increase
and we trend back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Lingering tight low level height gradient and deeper diurnal
mixing will once again allow for west-northwest winds to become
increasingly gusty (25-30 kts) mid morning through Friday
afternoon. VFR/dry otherwise with some passing higher based VFR
clouds at times.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM CDT Friday through Friday
     afternoon for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Steinwedel