


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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036 FXUS63 KIWX 301727 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 127 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Two periods of showers/storms are expected, one into the morning hours and a second, lower confidence chance late afternoon into this evening. Heavy rain is the most likely threat, but stronger storms this afternoon and evening could produce isolated wind damage. - Drier and less humid Tuesday through early Friday with seasonable highs in the 80s. - A return to hot and humid conditions as well as diurnal showers/storms Saturday to Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A small area of showers and storms has been trying to expand across SW portions of the CWA, but is struggling given the overall lack of convergence or strong forcing. An area of showers and storms was holding its own and even expanding somewhat across central IN with this area working NE to impacts SE parts of the forecast area through 15Z or so. Have went with chc pops in these area and slgt chc elsewhere to handle the pop up activity expected. The main threat from any of these will be locally heavy rain given copious amounts of moisture (PWATs pushing 2" in some areas) and overall slow movement. The area will likely end up in a lull for convection prior to the arrival of a cold front and somewhat stronger trough. However, the final coverage of the first round of convection as well as any remnant outflows will determine if we can indeed remain dry or if random showers/storms pop in an unstable (MLCAPE 1000 to 1500 J/KG) and most likely uncapped atmosphere. Any areas of weak convergence could easily pop a few storms with the the most likely areas late AM into early afternoon possibly being near Lk MI where lake convergence may hug the shore and allow for some development. CAMs are struggling on exactly how convection may unfold with regards to timing, coverage and intensity along and ahead of the cold front leading to low confidence in the final outcome. Any limited severe threat will come from development this afternoon and evening, but even so the best dynamics and shear lag behind the front resulting in more of a pulse or loosely organized multicell storm setup with locally heavy rain and gusty winds the main concern. After coordination, have capped pops at high chc during the most favorable window late afternoon into early evening and opted for coverage wording today and this evening everywhere. Based on some models trends on a slower arrival to the cold front, pops were also slowed down wrt to the west to east lowering trend. Everything should generally be clear by 6Z Tue. Tuesday through Fri night will be somewhat less humid and seasonable warm with highs in the 80s as the overall upper level trough remains in place. Model blend still placing some slgt chc pops in for Thursday with a subtle disturbance. Not really buying the slgt chc pops, but will leave alone for now. Upper level ridging begins to build for the weekend with signals of 590 dm or higher working back in which would yield highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and at least somewhat increased humidity as well as diurnal chances for showers and storms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 611 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Cloudiness began to scatter out in the west during the mid morning and that has allowed for some instability to form. Models are little inconsistent on where storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours, but still feel confident enough to keep a mention of showers and storms at FWA this afternoon. We`ll then have to watch the arrival of a cold front after 00z. Given how much debris clouds have been across the area this morning and how late it is at night, would expect that this should just stay showers. Some MVFR flight conditions will be possible from those showers as they move through. The cold front moves through and brings a cooler and drier airmass overnight into Tuesday, but at this point the BR/fog chance looks low. Winds are still expected to stay at or less than 10 kts with west southwest winds veering more northwesterly by the end of the period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Roller