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000
FXUS63 KIWX 090210
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
910 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDINESS
AND COLD CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP. THE SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MODERATING CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT
WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING LOW
LEVEL RIDGING TO EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SHORT WAVE LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN CONSIDERATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION NOTED IN 00Z KILX RAOB. EARLIER EVENING UPDATE SENT
MAINLY TO REFRESH LATE AFTERNOON WORDING...WITH FORECAST ELEMENTS
IN GOOD SHAPE. SOME POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EXISTS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN LINGERING NEAR SFC
MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT FORECASTED MINS FROM LOWER TEENS NORTH TO
UPPER TEENS SOUTH. STILL FEEL THAT WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE IS
REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH
LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND RELATIVELY LOWER SNOWCOVER ALBEDO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE INVOF A SEWD SINKING ELEVATED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE.
NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT ANTICIPATED ON ROADS. LARGE SCALE
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE
OF A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BRIEF COLD/DRY ADVECTION
BURST SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT LOW STRATUS FROM NW TO SE...ALTHOUGH
SOME CONCERN THAT EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK MAY LINGER LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST WITH 925 MB RIDGE AXIS NOT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK GIVEN LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE/CLEARING
SKIES/AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS SFC RIDGE NUDGES IN.

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH FOLDS
SOUTH AND NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE TRACKS INTO ONTARIO.
AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH BULK OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS BYPASSING NORTH
WILL SUPPORT A MODEST TEMP RECOVERY INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLW TO START WILL EVOLVE TO AMPLIFIED PNA STATE BY
LT PD. POTENTIAL PHASING ISSUES W/POTENT SW IMPULSE DROPPING OUT OF
CANADA STILL PLAGUE MIDDLE PDS AND XPC SUCCESSIVE MODEL ITERATIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO CATCH ON W/SYS EVOLUTION. THUS SEE LTL REASON TO
STRAY FM PRIOR FCST GIVEN CONTD INDICATED HIGH SPREAD.

HWVR LL THERMAL RIDGE INADV OF THIS SYS WILL YIELD A MILD WX
MON-TUE...ALTHOUGH TEMPERED SOMEWHAT TUE IN FACE OF INCREASING CLDS
AND VEERING TO NRLY FLW. SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOW PRES ADVG THROUGH THE
OH RVR TUE NIGHT-WED WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA YET DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. BRIEF CAA WING TUCKS IN BEHIND THIS SYS FOR THU FOLLOWED
BY A SERIES OF SW DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN STEEPENING NW FLW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO GRADUALLY ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS TOWARD 02Z-03Z AT KSBN...AND IN THE 04Z-06Z TIMEFRAME
AT KFWA. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS...DIMINISHING CLOUDS...AND LINGERING NEAR
SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIP MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT
KSBN. LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES OF NOTE
WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED AFTER ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


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