Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
114 FXUS64 KOHX 250154 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 854 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Outside of a few light showers that are pushing east over the Plateau we will see quiet conditions for the evening. It will remain humid with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Things are going to get more active as we head into the overnight though. Our focus will shift to thunderstorm activity over MO/AR. This activity will push southeast along an instability gradient that runs from around St. Louis southeast to around the TN River to Huntsville. We should see this gradient gradually build northeast over the next several hours and make it to around I-24. The potential for strong storms tonight will be along and west of the instability gradient, generally I-24 west in our area. The convection will remain elevated across the whole area and that will limit the severe potential but mid-level lapse rates should be enough from some of a hail threat and still can`t rule out isolated gusty winds. PWATs will be above an inch and heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorms. To the east of the instability gradient thunderstorms are still expected but CAPE will be less and the threat for strong storms is low. The line of thunderstorms will likely make it to our northwest after 1 am pushing into the Nashville area between 3 and 5 am with the line pushing out of our area by 8 am or so. Things then look dry out for the morning with the possiblity of additional scattered storms Saturday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday Night) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Shortwave upstream is producing the wakening area of showers and thunderstorms that is attempting to move across our southwestern counties. This area should continue to weaken. However, convective temperatures will again get breached this afternoon with additional development expected. Strong to severe activity will be largely cape dependent. Otherwise, afternoon forcing looks a little sub par, instability is moderate, 850 mb speeds are 25 kt at most. There will be a dissipating boundary on approach later tonight. This activity appears to be the reason for our slight risk into our far west. Phasing of instability and forcing looks really good back toward the MS River. However, these levels drop off toward the east and thus much of our area is only in a marginal. Nevertheless, toward sunrise these storms may hold together with wind and hail being the primary threat. Also, helicity values are still in the 100- 200 range so cant rule out a spinner or two. Isolated rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches could occur with the strongest storms. Moving on, Saturday appears to offer somewhat of a break as forcing/organization looks very weak. This break may hold on through Sunday morning as we pick up on some mid/upper level ridging and a temperature increase of a few degrees at those levels. The break, however, will come to an end as the main thrust of severe potential kicks in in the afternoon and particularly overnight. The phasing of high cape and high shear looks particularly alarming during that late afternoon and early evening timeframe. Mid level lapse rates of over 8C are noted on the gfs. All facets of severe potential will be on the table. Average rainfall amounts look like an inch or so but isolated area could again eclipse the 2" level. For the near term temps, look for warm summerlike conditions with lows mid to upper 60s and highs upper 80s to near 90. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 In the extended forecast, there appears to be a final cold frontal boundary that will not work through the area until Monday night. Hence, isolated to scattered non severe activity could linger into your Monday. Following this, the drier and cooler air will win out as a surface high builds down from the north. This should keep us dry through the remainder of the period with temperatures returning to near and eventually below normal for late May/early June. Low temps for both Wednesday and Thursday nights will be well down into the 50s. Highs in the 70s with less humid conditions. A very nice break from the warm and muggy conditons we`ve been experiencing. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions tonight before showers and thunderstorms move through early Saturday morning. CIGs and VIS will be reduced with storms, between MVFR to IFR conditions. By late morning, storms move out and VFR conditions prevail through the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 67 87 70 91 / 70 40 30 40 Clarksville 66 84 69 89 / 70 30 40 40 Crossville 61 81 63 84 / 50 50 40 50 Columbia 65 86 68 90 / 70 40 30 30 Cookeville 63 81 65 85 / 50 50 40 50 Jamestown 61 81 63 85 / 60 50 40 50 Lawrenceburg 65 85 68 89 / 60 50 30 30 Murfreesboro 65 86 67 90 / 60 40 30 30 Waverly 65 84 68 90 / 70 40 30 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Cravens