Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
597 FXUS62 KMFL 042257 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 657 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 134 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 The persistent mid to upper level longwave trough will continue to remain in place across the Eastern Seaboard through the rest of today and into Friday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary remains stalled out over the region, and will continue to remain in place through Friday. This will continue the deep layer moisture advection that is occurring over the region due to the rather light west to southwesterly wind flow in place. The latest ACARS data shows abundant moisture over the region as current PWAT values hover around 2.20 inches early this afternoon. As moisture continues to pool over the area along the frontal boundary, PWAT values will remain high as the latest model forecast soundings show these values generally ranging between 2.2 and 2.5 inches across most of the area through the rest of the week. This will be supportive scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm development especially during the times of peak diurnal heating each afternoon and evening through Friday. With the deep layer tropical moisture remaining in place, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential of producing heavy downpours with very efficient rainfall rates. This will continue to lead to the potential for localized flooding especially across the metro areas as well as locations that have are already saturated from previous heavy downpours. With an increased amount of cloud cover in place along with an elevated potential of convective development, high temperatures and heat indices will be held down a bit and are not anticipated to reach Heat Advisory criteria through Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 By Saturday, the upper level trough is forecast to begin lifting northward while the surface front gradually weakens over our area. Nevertheless, with continued southerly flow and moisture influx over the area, conditions will remain generally unsettled through the weekend, with 60-70% for showers and storms each day. The upper level trough then looks to build back across the eastern US next week, and models show another frontal boundary potentially dropping along SE CONUS and north/central Florida. This will act to keep conditions wet and unsettled next week. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Showers and storms are almost finishing up for the day, and mainly dry conditions and light/variable flow will prevail through the overnight hours. Weak west-southwest flow will return during the late morning hours, and the east coast sea breeze will try to push inland during the afternoon hours but will not make much of an inland progression as the day progresses. Showers and thunderstorms expected to develop around 16Z and will push towards the eastern coastline through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 A stationary frontal boundary remains stalled out across South Florida and the Florida Keys through the end of the week. As a result, westerly/southwesterly winds will prevail, with elevated chanced for several rounds of showers/thunderstorms across all local waters. Seas are expected at 2-4 feet, except in and around storms where gusty winds and rough seas could be possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 89 77 89 / 70 90 60 80 West Kendall 76 88 76 89 / 70 90 50 80 Opa-Locka 76 90 76 90 / 60 90 60 80 Homestead 76 88 76 89 / 80 90 60 80 Fort Lauderdale 77 90 76 89 / 60 90 60 80 N Ft Lauderdale 78 90 77 90 / 60 90 50 80 Pembroke Pines 76 91 76 91 / 60 90 60 80 West Palm Beach 76 90 76 91 / 50 80 50 80 Boca Raton 76 90 76 91 / 60 80 50 80 Naples 78 90 78 91 / 60 80 50 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Rizzuto