632
FXUS62 KMFL 091803
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
103 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - Very warm with the potential for record high temperatures this
   afternoon across the east coast metro areas.

 - A strong cold front will pass through South Florida on Monday
   bringing the coldest temperatures of the season so far to the
   region Monday night into Tuesday.

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected to develop across all
   coastal waters starting Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1234 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

An amplifying mid level longwave trough will continue to dig down
from the Great Lakes region into the Gulf coast states this
afternoon and this trough will progress towards the Eastern
Seaboard and Florida Peninsula tonight into Monday. At the
surface, a strong cold front will sweep through Northern and
Central Florida tonight before eventually passing through South
Florida on Monday morning.

Out ahead of this front, a rather light synoptic south to
southwesterly wind regime will remain in place this afternoon and
tonight across most of the region. With the sea breezes
developing and pushing inland combined with ample lower level
moisture advection taking place, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the interior and move towards the
east coast metro areas this afternoon and this evening. While the
latest ACARS data shows CAPE values between 1200-1300 J/kg at 17Z,
these values will increase as the atmosphere continues to
destabilize with plenty of daytime heating especially across the
interior and east coast. The latest forecast model soundings show
CAPE values ranging between 3000-3500 J/kg over the eastern half
of South Florida later this afternoon. Because of this, one or two
strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out containing gusty winds
where boundary interactions take place along the east coast.
Factors that are working against strong thunderstorm development
are rather poor lower to mid level lapse rates combined with
plenty of mid to upper level dry air in place.

High temperatures this afternoon will once again approach record
values as they rise into the upper 80s to around 90 across the
interior and east coast due to the general south to southwesterly
wind flow in place. Behind the front, northwesterly winds will
rapidly increase on Monday afternoon across the region as a much
drier and cooler air mass pushes into the area. High temperatures
on Monday will generally range from the lower 70s west of Lake
Okeechobee to the lower 80s along and south of Alligator Alley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

For Tuesday morning, models depict it be the coldest period of the
incoming cold weather event with morning lows dropping into the
upper 30s to low 40s around the Lake region, and mid-upper 40s
elsewhere. Locations right along the coast may remain close to 50.
For the Tuesday afternoon highs, models continue on a modest cooling
trend with low-mid 60s around the Lake region/interior areas, and
upper 60s elsewhere.

Most concerning impact will be potential for wind chills to drop
into the low-mid 30s over the northern half of SoFlo, and low 40s
elsewhere. These values will continue to be adjusted as new guidance
becomes available, so interests affected by cold temperatures should
continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Weather
Service in Miami.

Winds will likely peak in intensity, around 15 mph, during the late
morning hours Tuesday then beginning to subside in the afternoon
hours. The air mass gradually moderates from Wednesday and through
the end of the work week as the west Atlantic ridge returns over the
area. Decreasing winds veer to a more easterly flow while warming up
the air mass. Afternoon highs climb back into the upper 70s to low
80s by Friday and Saturday.

POPs remain basically in single digits every day of the forecast
period with benign weather prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop near the
east coast terminals this afternoon. These storms could bring
gusty and erratic winds later this afternoon along with periods of
MVFR to IFR as they move across the region. SSE winds of 5-10 kts
will continue outside of convection across the east coast
terminals before becoming light and variable this evening. At
KAPF, SW winds to around 10 kts will continue this afternoon
before becoming light this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Winds will shift more south-southwesterly today but remain in the
5-10kt range ahead of an approaching front. Hazardous marine
conditions are expected to quickly develop in the wake of the
frontal passage starting Monday morning and continuing through the
middle of the work week. Most of South Florida`s coastal waters
will be affected by the stronger winds.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all coastal waters of
South Florida including lake Okeechobee. Latest model estimates
show possible wave heights in the 10 to 14 feet range in the
Atlantic waters on Tuesday, along with wind speeds in the 25-30 kt
range with higher gusts.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today at all beaches of
Palm Beach county.

Rip current risk is expected to become high at all Atlantic
beaches on Tuesday in the wake of a frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  83  49  68 /  10  20   0   0
West Kendall     71  83  47  67 /  10  20   0   0
Opa-Locka        73  83  49  69 /  20  20   0   0
Homestead        72  83  49  68 /  10  20   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  72  82  47  68 /  20  10   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  72  82  47  68 /  20  10   0   0
Pembroke Pines   73  85  49  70 /  20  20   0   0
West Palm Beach  71  80  46  67 /  20  10   0   0
Boca Raton       72  82  47  69 /  20  10   0   0
Naples           71  77  45  64 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CWC