777
FXUS62 KMFL 231107
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
607 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

  - Dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place across South
    Florida this weekend.

  - Patchy dense fog is possible early this morning, mainly
    across the Lake Okeechobee region as well as interior
    Southwest Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Sensible weather conditions across South Florida will generally
remain unchanged through the short term period, despite the gradual
approach of a weak frontal boundary currently draped over the
southeast CONUS. The boundary is forecast to stall out somewhere
over northern/central Florida as we head into the new week.
Nevertheless, the main impact of this frontal approach will be a
brief wind shift from the north/northeast expected today. However,
with ridging prevailing aloft and meager moisture along the
atmospheric column ahead of the front, chances for any convection
associated with this boundary will remain very low. Additionally,
despite the brief northerly wind shift, the cooler airmass will not
reach our area, and temperatures will remain warm, with highs in the
low-mid 80s this afternoon. Winds veer back fro the east-northeast
on Monday, and the dry and warm pattern will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Ridging will become re-established over the first half of the week
as the surface high over the western Atlantic builds back over the
Florida peninsula. This will usher in the return of easterly flow
and a slight uptick in moisture (up to 1.0-1.3 inches over the first
half of the week). This could result in slightly warmer feels-like
temperatures each afternoon; with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s each day, the apparent temperatures could start
approaching the low 90s by Wednesday afternoon.

As we head into the long holiday weekend, a stout upper level trough
will develop over the Great Lakes region, spawning a strong surface
low and associated cold front which will sweep across the nation and
south across the Florida peninsula sometime between Friday and
Saturday. There is some divergence regarding timing in the ensemble
envelope, with the european ensembles favoring a faster progression,
and the GFS looking at a slower evolution. We will continue to
monitor those differences as we near the end of the week.

With enough moisture pooled over the region ahead of this front,
this could mean a general increase in the chances for rain starting
on Thursday and continuing through the end of the period, with PoPs
in the 20-40% range each day. Temperatures could also drop slightly
over the weekend once the cooler airmass moves over the area, with
highs in the high 70s and lows in the mid 60s and low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Winds become north-northwesterly in the late morning. Sea breezes
will develop along both coastlines in the early afternoon,
ushering a return to easterly flow for East Coast terminals, and
westerly flow at KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Light northerly breeze will develop later today with a weak boundary
approaching. Easterly flow will becoming re-established on Monday.
Seas will remain in the 1-3 feet range. Winds and seas could build
as a stronger boundary approaches later in the week, but timing and
intensity remain somewhat uncertain at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  69  83  72 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     84  64  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        85  68  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        83  67  82  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  83  69  81  71 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  84  69  81  72 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   86  68  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  84  68  82  70 /   0   0   0  10
Boca Raton       84  68  83  71 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           83  66  85  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Redman