852
FXUS62 KMFL 261806
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
106 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

  - Areas of patchy fog expected to develop again across interior
    Florida early Thursday morning.

  - Dry and pleasant conditions will continue across South Florida
    today.

  - A cold front is forecast to drop through over the Thanksgiving
    weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and an uptick in rain
    chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 102 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

One more day of generally warm conditions and southeasterly flow
across the area, except periods of westerly winds over the Gulf
coast with sea breezes this afternoon. The persisting mid/upper lvl
ridge will quickly erode starting tonight as ensembles and NBM
depict a weak FROPA moving across the peninsula in the Thu-Fri time
frame. The bulk of the associated weather ahead of the front should
affect SoFlo Thursday afternoon with latest NBM bumping POPs up to
50 percent for the SE corner of Florida, mainly south of I-75. The
front should be departing the area that evening.

Dynamic support remains lacking with this relatively weak FROPA, 500
mb temps around -7C, model CAPE/MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and PWATs
remaining below 2 in. Overall, expect mainly scattered showers with
a few embedded thunderstorms on Thursday. In other words, not
expecting this frontal passage to be a drought-buster for SoFlo.

Temperatures should remain warm through Thursday, with afternoon
highs in the mid-upper 80s today, and low-mid 80s on Thursday. A
modest cooling will follow the FROPA with temps dropping several
degrees by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

The aforementioned upper level trough will continue to side eastward
Thursday night into Friday as the cold front pushes along the
peninsula. A notable drier and cooler airmass will overspread the
region behind the front on Friday, with lows Thursday night dropping
to the low 60s along the East Coast, and down further into the upper
40s-50s across the interior and southwest FL. Highs on Friday
could also be cooler than average, with highs peaking in the mid
to upper 70s. Conditions will gradually warm back up over the
weekend as some of the long-range guidance shows the remnants of
this front eventually retrograding north late this the weekend
into next week, placing South Florida in the warm sector, with
moisture surging back into the region and chances for rain
returning as we head into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR expected to prevail through Thursday morning at all terminals.
Southeasterly-easterly winds between 5-10 kts will continue at the
Atlantic terminals, with APF experiencing Gulf breezes after 18Z.
L/V flow returns tonight after 00Z. A frontal boundary approaches
the region and brings increasing chances of showers and winds
shifting to the northwest by late morning Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Easterly-southeasterly light to moderate winds continue today, but
veering from the west/northwest across the Gulf waters each
afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas will range between 1-3
feet. Conditions will begin deteriorating Thursday into Friday as
a cold front moves across the area, bringing increasing winds and
seas and a few isolated showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  83  63  75 /  30  50  30   0
West Kendall     67  84  61  76 /  30  50  30   0
Opa-Locka        70  84  63  76 /  30  50  30   0
Homestead        70  83  63  75 /  30  40  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  70  82  63  74 /  30  50  30   0
N Ft Lauderdale  71  83  63  75 /  30  50  20   0
Pembroke Pines   70  85  62  77 /  30  50  30   0
West Palm Beach  69  83  61  74 /  40  40  20   0
Boca Raton       70  83  61  75 /  30  50  20   0
Naples           69  82  56  73 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17