Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 281954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TODAY...
SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
DELIVERING A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH MORNING SHOWERS TODAY GIVING
WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
BY HALLOWEEN MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNRISE OR SO...OTHERWISE JUST NOT MUCH...MINUS SOME GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE GUSTS ON
PARTS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

QUITE THE AIRMASS DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE MOMENT AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A WARM
FRONT BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN AT 06Z. IN FACT...TEMPS DOWN ALONG
THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES ARE NEAR 70 CURRENTLY
(WOW!) WHILE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO BE STUCK ONLY IN
THE 40S. THAT WARM FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY LIFTING NORTHWARD THE
PAST FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
QUITE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRECIP CONTINUES TO ARC AROUND THE CWA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED AXIS ROLLING UP THROUGH EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL U.P. WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT SITS JUST UPSTREAM ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HELPING FUEL ANOTHER FLAREUP
OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND POINTS SOUTH.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN DEPTH FOR DAYS...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
WILL SPIN ITSELF ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP TOWARD SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY EARLY
EVENING...QUICKLY SENDING THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AREA
BY NOON AT THE LATEST. AFOREMENTIONED AXIS OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP AN ARC OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS UP ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH ACTUALLY VERY LITTLE
SUPPORT WORKING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT
WILL COME INTO NORTHEAST LOWER UP THROUGH 14-15Z AS A MARKEDLY
WARMER/MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS RAPIDLY ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ACT TO FURTHER
STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUT THAT WAY. AS SUCH...REALLY FORESEE
A SPLIT IN PRECIP COVERAGE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN CWA AND EASTERN
AREAS...THOUGH GIVEN THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WORKING OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA...WOULD SUSPECT THAT AT LEAST A SMATTERING OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN BETWEEN (THOUGH IT`S FAR FROM A CERTAINTY).

STRONG DRYING WILL KICK INTO GEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS QUITE THE PUSH
OF COLD ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. DESPITE LOSS OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB...INCREASINGLY COOLER PROFILES DOWN LOW AND SUBSEQUENT STEEPER
SFC-800MB LAPSE RATES/LAKE COMPONENT ARGUE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR A TIME IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...EVEN THE SUB-800MB LAYER LOOKS TO DRY SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER
18Z...STRONGLY INFERRING THAT NOT MUCH AT ALL WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER...WITH DOWNRIGHT SUNNY SKIES LIKELY FOR A TIME INTO
THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH A DIFFERENT STORY WITH DEEPER
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LIKELY SUPPORTING SOME DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
THEN EXPAND BACK INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER/EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT AS A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PINWHEELS BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN AROUND -2C EASILY SUPPORTING AN UPTICK
IN LAKE ENHANCED RAIN COVERAGE. WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO
PREVENT ANY SNOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS TODAY NOT TOO SHABBY...WITH
DEEPER MIXING OFFSETTING COLD ADVECTION INITIALLY (MAINLY 50S TO LOW
60S EAST) BUT WITH FALLING READINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS...GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH A POSSIBLE MINOR SNOWFALL TO CLOSE OUT
OCTOBER...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL START TO THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS UNDER A BENIGN REGION OF
A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN INACTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LAKE-H8 DELTA TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF LAKE MI FOR THE NW WIND
BELTS. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE SAME...THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN FOR ALL
AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY
WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
WILL BE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 03Z FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
TROUGH...AND THUS A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE STRAITS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO CONVERGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
1009 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND A 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS MN.

VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV PAIRED WITH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
PV ANOMALY WILL SUPPORT DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING
WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS TO UNDER 1KFT AGL BY 09Z FRI ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND 12Z FRI NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THAT SAID...ACCUMULATING
SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
AMPLE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARMER ROAD SFC TEMPS AND RESULT IN
SOME SLUSH ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. OVERALL...AROUND AN INCH OF WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SHORELINES.

TO ADD TO THE PRECIP...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE
ASSISTED BY A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI. FOCUS TURNS TO
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCE DELTA TEMPS OF
AT LEAST 15C. DUE NORTH WINDS THROUGH H8 SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND FAR EAST CWA CLEAR OF ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH OVER MN FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CUTOFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CHILLY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA. AM NOT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD
CLEARING...BUT SOME AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
TO ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING LATE IN THE NIGHT. GIVEN STARTING TEMPS
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S INLAND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS OVER THE CWA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BY WAY OF A JET AXIS AND H5 TROUGH
AXIS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A VERY BRIEF LULL IN WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. OVERALL PEAK WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH AS IS
TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH
ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 142 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT PLN ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING HELPS CLEAR
OUT THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN CONTINUING COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTS IN ENOUGH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

EXPECT WRLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AIDED
BY INCREASING SFC HEATING/MIXING. WINDS MAY STILL A BIT GUSTY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$





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