Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 200709
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
309 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

...Rain invades this afternoon and especially tonight...

High impact weather potential...slight chance of thunder tonight.

Cool high pressure is north of Huron, supplying ne-erly surface
winds to northern MI. This high will gradually move east, allowing
low pressure (now over eastern KS) to lift nne. Two months ago, this
would have been a strong set-up for freezing rain. Instead, it`s
just a strong set-up for plain rain. Precip trends are the main
concern.

Today...surface low lifts into central/eastern Iowa. Warm conveyor
belt will take aim at the sw Great Lakes region, with substantial
theta-e advection pushing into WI/southern lake MI/sw lower MI.
However, cool/dry easterly sub-850mb winds off the departing high to
our ne will inhibit the northward spread of precip. With the nearest
batch of precip in northern IL (and weakening), anticipate we`ll get
thru the morning and early afternoon hours dry. (Bufr soundings at
18z at MBL are still plenty dry below 840mb.) Even after that, best
precip area looks to lift to our west across WI, where the cold
conveyor belt is in play. Model-progged precip into our area is
spotty thru 00z/8pm. Will advance chance pops as far northward as
CVX-GLR-Tawas by early evening, but will refrain from any likely
pops thru 8pm. Overall, this is significantly slower than the
previous forecast.

Clouds will certainly be on the increase from s to n, with eastern
upper MI seeing a relative abundance of sunshine today. Max temps in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Tonight...surface low continues to lift into nw WI, staying just
east of the 500mb closed low. Warm/occluded front will lift into
central lower MI toward Sunday morning. Much more emphatic surge of
precip is expected, in particular as deep convection develops in the
southern lakes and the remnants advect north. Expect showers to
become widespread in nw lower MI in the evening, and across the rest
of northern MI overnight (with a diminishing trend in nw lower very
late). Thunder may be hard to come by, with MuCape likely less than
500j/kg (note that the Nam looks a bit too juicy, as is typical). A
slight chance for thunder near/south of M-72 should cover it, and
honestly it took some work to justify that much. Looks to be a
respectable precip event, with QPF totals commonly 0.50 to 0.75
inches.

Min temps lower 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

...Stretch of unsettled weather...

High impact weather potential: A few thunderstorms possible early
Sunday.

Pattern forecast: By Sunday morning, a rather amplified pattern is
progged across the CONUS with ridging centered over the Northeast
and well-defined troughing extending from southern Canada into the
mid-Mississippi Valley. Surface low pressure centered across
southeast MN/northwest WI will continue to provide deep
southwesterly flow and Gulf of Mexico moisture-rich air across
northern Michigan prior to a cold frontal passage expected to occur
during the midday hours Sunday. Additional energy pinwheeling around
the deepening through to our northwest will be the focus for
additional light shower chances into early next week.

Primary forecast challenges/concerns: Diminishing rain chances
Sunday, although additional light showers possible Sunday night-
Monday.

Early Sunday, northern Michigan lies squarely in the warm sector
with deep southwesterly flow continuing to usher in moisture-rich
air. Waves of ongoing showers are expected to continue along with a
few sporadic rumbles of thunder (mainly east of I-75) thanks to
forcing ahead of the approaching cold front and perhaps a couple
hundred J/kg of elevated instability. Much drier air is ushered in
behind Sunday`s cold front with the majority of shower activity
ending from west to east late Sunday morning through midday. Still
can`t rule out a few additional showers Sunday afternoon and more so
Sunday night with any subtle shortwaves rippling through
aforementioned large scale troughing. Similar pattern continues into
Monday, but as the prior shift mentioned, slightly better moisture
return and a bit of diurnally driven instability may support a bit
better shower coverage when compared to Sunday afternoon/night.
Trends suggest any shower activity diminishes Monday afternoon-
evening.

Near-normal high temperatures expected Sunday, ranging from the
upper 50s north to the mid 60s to low 70s south. Just a touch cooler
ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Focus revolves around the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe as energy
rounds the base of continued troughing across the Great Lakes
region. Still quite a bit in run-to-run consistency with respect to
overall development of surface low pressure and resultant spatial
and temporal coverage of rain showers, but it certainly continues
worth monitoring for another period of potentially wet weather
during the midweek timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

High pressure to our north will remain in control through the TAF
period, resulting in easterly winds and VFR CIGS through Saturday.
Those easterly winds will increase tonight with low end LLWS
developing, which will then mix down into gusty conditions
Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the south late Saturday
into Sunday, and CIGS will be lowering with time, reaching MVFR
Saturday night while periods of showers and possible storms
arrive with reduced VSBYS. LLWS returns with more vengeance
Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

Some gusty ne to e winds will persist into tonight, as low
pressure moves north into Iowa and WI. Eventually this system
passes to our north, and winds will become westerly, again
somewhat breezy. Periodic small craft advisories can continue to
be expected.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for LHZ345>347-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for LMZ323-341-344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ342.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JZ



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