Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 221045
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Weak frontal boundary continues to make slow eastward progress into
western sections of our CWA early this morning...dissipating as it
does so. Very little temp difference exists on the other side of
this boundary...but some low level drying has begun to take place
upstream over the arrowhead of Minnesota...NW Wisconsin and Western
Upper Michigan where surface dwpts have fallen into the 50s. Closer
to home...the few isold storms that briefly developed around
Drummond Island have pushed well east of our area into Northern Lake
Huron...leaving our entire CWA precip free early this morning.
Overall sky conditions are still partly cloudy as some thick cirrus
remains over Lower Michigan from convection over Northern Illinois
and Northern Indiana.

Weak front (mainly a dwpt front) will continue to slide thru our CWA
this morning. Primary impact of this feature will be a decrease in
humidity as drier air filters into the region in the wake of the
dying front. With lower dwpt air arriving combined with
strengthening subsidence as high pressure builds in behind the
departing front...expect dry weather today and tonight with mainly
clear skies once this residual cirrus from convection to our south
slides out of Northern Lower Michigan during the morning hours. With
little change in temp expected behind the front...the Northwoods
will see another very warm day...with afternoon highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Noticeably less humid conditions today will hold heat
indices around the actual temp.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

For Saturday through Monday...

Main concern: Shower and thunderstorm potential late Saturday night
through Sunday night.

The heat will continue through Saturday with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s, but the lack of low level moisture will at least provide
relief from any chance of high heat indices. The large area of high
pressure that has been responsible for the high heat will finally
begin to give way to an area of low pressure late Saturday night
into Sunday night, returning chances of rain and thunderstorms to
northern Michigan once again. There is the potential for some storms
to become strong to severe Sunday afternoon/evening...although as
the previous forecaster alluded to, what happens with the
convection/clouds from late Saturday night into Sunday morning and
any lingering clouds, has a huge impact on northern Michigan`s
severe weather potential during the afternoon/evening hours. We will
continue to monitor for any potential threat. Generally around a
quarter of an inch of QPF, with locally higher amounts possible
under any stronger convection that may develop. Monday will see
decreased cloudiness behind the cold front as the storm system moves
east.

Highs will only cool slightly after cold frontal passage from the
aforementioned low pressure system...bringing temperatures into the
upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday. Lows will continue to remain
in the 60s.

For Tuesday through Thursday...

Flow remains fairly zonal through the beginning of the period, until
an upper level wave returns rain chances Wednesday afternoon and
especially Thursday to the forecast area. Of course, this far out,
the forecast can change in terms of timing/intensity/location of any
rain/storms that do develop. In summary...a dry forecast period with
chances of precipitation to finish out the extended forecast.
Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with lows
in the upper 50s to low 60s across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF
sites through Saturday morning as high pressure and dry air
continue to build into the region. W/NW winds will remain AOB 10
kts thru the forecast period...with a few higher gusts expected
during the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Saturday night
as high pressure builds overhead today thru Saturday and then moves
east of Michigan by Saturday night. No precip is expected thru
Saturday...with our next chance for showers and storms developing
Saturday night along and ahead of an approaching cool front.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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