Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 072300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

AFTER A QUIET EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING UP BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY CREEPING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY DRIER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
SLOWLY FALLING OFF INTO THE 50S ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. IN
FACT...ANOTHER THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SRN
LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 60S.

UPSTREAM...SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG UPPER JET CORE SWINGING
DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH WISCONSIN AND ABOUT TO
PUNCH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. ASSOCIATED FORCING ACTING ON AXIS OF
STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/RESPECTABLE MLCAPE VALUES SITTING
ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO MINNESOTA...HAS BROUGHT ON ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN BACK INTO MINNESOTA.
THAT IS OUR WEATHER FOR LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET CORE AND DEVELOPING SFC WAVE
ALONG THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL AMPLIFY A BIT BEFORE SWINGING
DOWN THROUGH THE STATE...LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND SWING INTO THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CERTAINLY BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH 40 TO 50 KNOT 500 MB WINDS AND 0-6KM 40+ KNOT BULK SHEAR
VALUES. DECENT INSTABILITY UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...WHERE THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HEADING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. NOT SO MUCH DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN AND
ANY INSTABILITY OUT THERE NOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME
CONVECTION ARRIVES. THUS...NOT ANTICIPATING A SEVERE STORM THREAT
ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTIER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

...UNSETTLED AND COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN SEASONABLE...

IMPACTS: POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN LATER IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVERALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW (EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) SHARPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND THE
EVIDENCE OF AN ACTUAL WAVE RAISES FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
SO WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING. EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDER ALSO EXPECTED WITH DECENT
LAPSE RATES (700-500 MB 6-6.25 C/KM). COULD EVEN BE SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SCATTER
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WANING INSTABILITY. WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S (PERHAPS A FEW MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...THOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED BY A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER).

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE MORE WAVES LIKELY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE TIMING AND EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES IS A BIT UNCERTAIN SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST SIMPLE AND GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S. COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH HOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY) WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS MAINLY IN THE COOL 40S TO LOWER 50S.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THETA-E RIDGING/WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED THEREAFTER WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON PATTERN EVOLUTION (NOW TRENDING DRIER FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND). FOR CONTINUITY SAKE WILL KEEP IN CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND GO WITH NO POPS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT (THOUGH ECMWF WOULD
IMPLY THE FRONT IS DELAYED TO MONDAY). HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THRU NRN LWR MICHIGAN. RESIDUAL GUSTS OF 15
TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME N/NW AOB 10 KTS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

GUSTY SW-W WINDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
ANY STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES. WINDS
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






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