Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 152354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
654 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

...Lake Effect Snow Showers Diminishing Tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential: Reduced visibility due to blowing
snow ending this evening as winds diminish.

Pattern Forecast: High amplitude upper-level ridge continues to
dominate the weather from the Pac NW into western Canada, forcing
shortwave energy down the eastern flank of the ridge into the Great
Lakes.  Last piece of shortwave energy exiting the area tonight,
relaxing the gradient and putting an end to lingering precipitation.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Little in the way of concern or sensible
weather through Thursday.  North-northwest flow lake effect snow
shower activity will continue tonight, especially during the first
half of the night.  As winds diminish this evening, the blowing snow
and lower visibility problems will come to an end.  Very light snow
accumulations tonight, generally less than one inch.   Likely still
a few flurries into Thursday morning west of US-131 in northern
lower, as inertial aspect of lake effect processes wind down as
moisture becomes shallower and inversions decrease. Should see at
least some partial sunshine on Thursday with rising heights and
diminishing moisture, although temperatures will remain in the
chilly 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday and Friday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

...Cold Replaced by Unseasonable Warmth...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Rising heights in the coming days as upstream
ridge builds eastward into the Great Lakes.  This will surge
unseasonably warm air northward into the northern tier of the CONUS
into the first part of next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns: WAA begins in earnest on Friday as the cold
air retreats to the north/east. The warming becomes more pronounced
on Saturday as 850mb thermal ridge (+10C) slides across the lower
lakes. Would normally have concerns about low clouds/stratus in
this type of scenario, but airmass is fairly dry (PWATs less than
0.50") and do not think that will be an issue. Should be a good
amount of sunshine both Friday and Saturday. Highs in the 30s to
around 40 on Friday, warming to widespread highs in the 40s to
even some lower 50s on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

An upper-level ridge will provide northern Michigan with well above
normal temperatures through the extended well as
precipitation-free weather through most of Monday morning. A weak
cold front associated with a low pressure system over James Bay will
approach the forecast area Monday...producing warm air advection
precipitation ahead of it and then chances of rain showers along and
behind the said cold front through Tuesday morning. Of course the
timing and intensity of this precipitation is uncertain...and may
change by then as the long range models are not in agreement at this
time. Precip chances may return Wednesday as well, as a shallow band
of moisture ahead of a weak area of low pressure drapes through the
forecast area.

Highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s north and reach 50 over
northern lower, while lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 654 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Expansive lake effect snow showers will continue across northern
Michigan this evening, gradually diminishing in intensity and
coverage later tonight and likely ending before 12Z. Until then,
visibility reductions will continue in spots, but for the most
part MVFR conditions will prevail overnight with ceilings expected
to lower a bit from current observations. Latest model guidance
suggests MVFR ceilings may linger through Thursday morning,
scattering out later in the afternoon. Northwest winds will
diminish over the next several hours, becoming variable Thursday
afternoon as high pressure moves overhead.


Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Gradient will relax tonight, resulting in diminishing winds and
the end of small craft advisories. A lighter wind regime taking
shape into the weekend with ridging building into the area. No
marine headlines are expected Thursday through the weekend.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>347.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Thursday for LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-


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