Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 062016
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
416 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

BATCH OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE...WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY. BUT A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FOR TUESDAY. OTHERWISE MOST
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BE LESS HUMID AND
COOLER. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1000MB LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO...COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND HINTS OF A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTING NORTHWEST ONTARIO SURFACE LOW WITH DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN.  HEATING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000J/KG ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE SOME RECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT AT MID AFTERNOON...REMNANTS OF
SOME EARLIER CONVECTION THAT ROLLED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.  CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PRETTY EXTENSIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THOUGH SOME THINNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF
M-32.  EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN HAS ALSO
LIMITED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THERE.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST LAKE SUPERIOR.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE
UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN/POSSIBLY WESTERN
UPPER.  PROBABLY NOT A QUESTION OF IF IT WILL RAIN TONIGHT (IT
SHOULD)...BUT NOW THAT SPC HAS SLIGHT OUTLOOKED US FOR TONIGHT THE
MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL STORM SEVERITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE JUSTIFIED AS RAIN
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.  STORM SEVERITY IS ANOTHER MATTER...WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH "INERTIA" STORMS HAVE AS THEY SLIDE INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...GREATER THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA.  BUT
ENOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN
UPPER/NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO A
SQUALL LINE...AS ELONGATED FORCING ALONG WARM FRONT WILL INITIALLY
BE OFFSET BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUASI-DISCRETE CELLS TO PERHAPS PERSIST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.  ALSO APPEARS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION AS
WELL ACROSS SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
HELP GIVE UPDRAFTS A BOOST.  SO ORIENTATION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA
APPEARS REASONABLE WITH GREATEST THREAT PROBABLY SOUTH OF THE M-32
CORRIDOR.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY DONE TOWARD DAYBREAK THOUGH
SOMETHING MAY STILL LINGER.  SUGGESTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WELL...SOME OF THAT LIKELY PUSHING IN OFF THE COLDER
LAKES AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT (DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY STILL IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT
MID AFTERNOON).

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

...UNSETTLED AND TURNING COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN SEASONABLE...

IMPACTS: LOW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVE RIDGING THEN
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
OVERALL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MONDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD
BRING A BREAK IN THE "ACTION" TO THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTHEAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW SHARPENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HAVE BEEN BURNED RECENTLY WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS (AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION
DUE TO CLOUD COVER ISSUES). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS ONE MORE WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. COOL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH HOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE COOL 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THETA-E RIDGING/WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING...SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING RAIN FREE...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EAST FOR NOW. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 THEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. SW BREEZES WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE
REGION...AND THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
UPSTREAM OVER WI...LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT CLOUD BEARING LAYER
WOULD KEEP THOSE CIGS WEST OF US. WE DO HAVE AN INVERSION AROUND
900MB THAT WILL LIKELY TRAP A SCT-BKN 035-045KFT DECK...BUT NO
MVFR EXPECTED.

ANY LLWS WILL END BY 13-14Z...AS THOSE SW WINDS GET MIXED TO THE
SFC.

ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY POP ACROSS FAR NRN AND ERN AREAS AFTER
18-19Z...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE 00Z-06Z IN NW
LOWER...AND 02Z-08Z FOR APN. MVFR VSBYS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE
AFTER THE COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY ARE PART OF THE SCENARIO. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40MPH
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MARINERS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED SW BREEZES INTO TONIGHT...WITH PEAK
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20-25 KTS ON LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT
MONDAY...AS ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ345-346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...AJS





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