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000
FXUS63 KARX 052010 CCA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
208 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS SE MN/NE IA
THURSDAY...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM HUDSONS BAY CANADA THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. EAST/NORTHEAST CIRCULATION UNDER THE HIGH WAS BRINGING SOME
LOWER CLOUD/STRATOCUMULUS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO OUR AREA MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WAS SUNNY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WERE STILL UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH READINGS IN THE
TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.

LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SWING THE WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT/GENERALLY LIGHT...THEN BECOMING A BIT GUSTY ON
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SKIES ALONG/NORTHEAST OF
I-94 WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR INITIALLY...BUT THEN WILL CLOUD UP AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS ADVECTING IN ON INCREASING
SOUTHERLY 925MB WINDS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND PERHAPS THICKEN SOME AS MORE CLOUD IS
ADVECTED IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. THIS
WILL SET UP A FAIRLY DECENT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
READINGS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. OF CONCERN WILL BE SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW/DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST
MN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS TO THE EXTENT OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL. WILL PASS THIS CONCERN ONTO THE
NIGHT SHIFT FOR CONSIDERATION OF HEADLINE IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE...
PLAN ON HIGHS THURSDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO MN/NORTHERN WI THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO
WARRANT A MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-94.
THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

LOOK FOR THAT COLD FRONT TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING 0-2KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A TRICKY WEATHER TYPE SCENARIO WITH SATURATION/ICE
IN THE COLUMN/TEMPERATURE PROFILE ISSUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET ON FRIDAY
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES RELATED TO ICING
ISSUES...MAINLY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI. APPEARS AT THIS POINT ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY...AND IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI PUSHING THE 40
DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

SUBSIDENCE AND A SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING IN LOOK TO KEEP THE MVFR
CLOUDS MORE SCT ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MORE SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AS A SMALL
AREA OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA COMBINES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MIXING TO 900MB. GENERALLY SCT MVFR
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS MIXING WANES AND THE INVERSION
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...AROUND 950-925MB...TRAPPED UNDER THIS
INVERSION NEAR 925MB WILL BE PROBLEMATIC LATER TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING. EASTERLY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
LOOKS TO SPREAD INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME OF IT
ORIGINATING FROM LK MI...ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT/THU
MORNING. CARRIED BKN MVFR CIGS AFTER 08-09Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. MDT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WINDS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE 10-12KT RANGE THRU THE NIGHT. THIS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR BR/HZ. TIGHTER GRADIENT AND DEEPER
MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS 15KT G25KT BY MID-DAY THU...
ESPECIALLY AT SITES LIKE KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS