Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 031743
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1243 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN MN EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS FUELING A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CENTRAL WI INTO EAST CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA WAS FREE OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER. IT WAS ALSO VERY MUGGY WITH
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

FOR TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY PUT WHILE A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL PV-ADVECTION DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL WI BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FIRE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NAM DEPICTING AROUND 4000J/KG OF
MUCAPE OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT BULK SHEAR
IS RATHER WEAK...LESS THAN 25KT. SO...NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME BUT WITH VERY HUMID AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE ANY PULSE TYPE STORM COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS WIND GUST IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.
OTHERWISE...VERY WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S SOUTHWEST OF I-
94.

LINGERING ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS //MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER// AS THAT MID-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT A SMALL-END CHANCE IN FOR
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND TROUGHINESS ALOFT WITH FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES. LOOKING FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 90S AGAIN SOUTHWEST OF I-94.

VERY WARM/MUGGY AIRMASS HANGS ON RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 80S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES TOPPING OFF IN THE 90S.

SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT AS CAPE DIVES OFF AND BETTER
BULK SHEAR BEING POST FRONTAL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH.

COOLER WEATHER ON TAP FOR LABOR DAY INTO MID-WEEK AS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DOMINATES THE REGION. COLD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS LABOR DAY MORNING...BUT LOOKING TO CLEAR BY MIDDAY AT THIS
TIME. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ROTATE THROUGH.

LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON MONDAY...COOLING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT...THERE IS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS. WITH
DIURNAL HEATING EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AT
BOTH TAF SITES.

FOR TONIGHT THE NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MVFR STRATUS DECK
WILL FORM ACROSS WISCONSIN. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
BROKEN AT KLSE. MEANWHILE KRST IS TOO FAR WEST TO BE AFFECTED BY
THESE CLOUDS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT...THE WINDS IN THE 03.12Z SOUNDINGS LOOKS A LOT
MORE WINDIER THAN THE 03.00Z OR 03.06Z SOUNDINGS. DUE TO
THIS...DID NOT GO WITH ANY DENSE FOG AT KLSE. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD
BE SOME 1 TO 3 MILE VISIBILITIES. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS TAFS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE



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