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000
FXUS63 KARX 141907
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
207 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Showers are expanding across the area this afternoon in response
to increasing broadscale lift ahead of a vigorous mid-level trough
(per GOES Water Vapor) pushing southeast out of the Dakotas. At
the surface, low pressure was becoming better organized over the
Central Plains. Otherwise, temperatures across the area this
afternoon were in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Strengthening area of low pressure will lift northeast across the
area tonight, reaching Lake Huron by daybreak Sunday. Latest
RAP/NAM low track keeps warm sector/better cape for severe storm
potential southeast of the area but could be a very brief window
of opportunity for a few stronger storms southeast of a
Mauston/Richland Center/Lancaster WI line as this area will be on
the cusp of the warm sector along with ample 0-3km bulk shear.
Therefore, will not let our guard down and will maintain a close
eye on strong to severe storm potential down that way. Otherwise,
looks like another good dousing of rain for the area with
generally 1/2 to 2 inches expected, highest across far northeast
IA into far southwest WI (see the Hydrology section below).
Another facet of this strong storm system will be gusty northwest
winds on the backside of the low after midnight into early Sunday
morning. We will likely see sustained winds of 15-25 mph with
gusts around 40 mph in the higher bluff country of southwest WI
and typical open/wind- prone areas of southeast MN/northeast IA.

Deformation area showers look to continue through mid Sunday
morning north of I-94, exiting east as the low quickly pulls into
western Quebec. Otherwise, looks like skies will be clearing from
west to east during the afternoon as high pressure builds in from
Plains. Plan on highs in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Main concern will be early on as areas of frost is expected late
Sunday night into early Monday morning as lows dip into the 30s
with light winds/clear skies.

The rest of the work week looks tranquil/pleasant with a ridge of
high pressure building over the central CONUS. Look for highs
starting off cooler than normal Monday but then warming to well
above normal by weeks end. A chance of showers creeps in Saturday
as a cold front pushes in from the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Cigs: low, sub 1kft cigs expected for the better part of the taf
period, with some improvement Sun morning as the responsible low
pressure system lifts to the northeast. Expecting
clearing/scattering out of the low cigs later Sun afternoon.

WX/vsby: periods of showers for the afternoon and tonight. Likely a
break in the -shra via the dry slot working into the southwest of
the low this evening. Vsbys generally mvfr from shra and/or br,
especially in the vicinity of the low. Could dip lower if heavier
showers are realized.

Winds: winds are going to increase significantly overnight thanks to
a tightening pressure gradient on the backside of the low.
Sustained northwest +20 kts with mid 30s for gusts expected. Window
for strong winds relatively short lived - should see some
improvement before 18z Sun.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Through Tonight
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Localized flooding is possible across portions of far northeast
Iowa into far southwest Wisconsin through this evening. Strong
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across this
area with the potential for heavy rainfall of 1 to locally 3
inches. Clayton and Grant counties have the highest chances of
seeing this heavier rainfall. It appears the main flood threat
will be south and east of the area across northern Illinois into
southeast Wisconsin where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect into
tonight.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAS
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Rieck
HYDROLOGY...DAS