Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 141806
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1206 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.UPDATE...This Afternoon
Issued at 1203 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

With 14.12z continuing to show that the low clouds will remain
well southeast of the area this afternoon, dramatically decreased
the cloud cover. With more sunshine, raised the forecast high
temperatures by about a category. This resulted in high
temperatures mainly in the 40s for this afternoon. These
temperatures will be close to what they were last Valentine`s Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Southwest surface flow in place across the area early this morning
under mostly clear skies. This flow was keeping temperatures in the
teens and 20s as of 2 am.

Southwest flow continues today under mostly sunny skies as 925mb
temperatures warm into the +1 to +9C range. Despite snowpack, we
should see highs today in the upper 30s to the middle 40s. So, some
snowmelt expected today. This snowmelt will load the lower boundary
layer with moisture, and is expected to lead to some fog development
tonight, mainly along and south of I-90. Look for lows in the middle
and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Thursday will see a cold front dropping into the area while a weak
wave of low pressure ripples northeast through IL. Our area looks to
remain mostly dry between these two systems despite mostly cloudy
skies. Cannot rule out a few rain or snow showers brushing portions
of southeast MN into northern WI, so carried small-end precipitation
chances there. Otherwise, plan on highs topping off in the middle
30s to near 40 degrees. Small-end rain/snow chances continue
Thursday evening as a weak mid-level trough moves through. Then look
for clearing skies and cold air advection through the remainder of
the night with lows dropping into the single digits and teens.

High pressure will provide dry and chilly conditions Friday and
Friday night with highs expected to be in the teens and lower 20s,
and lows in the single digits above zero.

A cold front rolls through the area Saturday for a chance of snow
with highs topping off in the middle 20s to the lower 30s.

Looks a bit more active for Sunday through Tuesday as several lows
eject out of the Rockies into the Upper Midwest. Predictability on
exact temperature profiles and resulting precipitation types with
these systems is rather low at this point. We should be prepared for
a wintry mix as highs will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the
single digits to lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

A westerly flow off of the Northern Plains will continue to push
dry air into the region through the early overnight. As a result,
skies should remain mainly clear. As the pressure gradient weakens
overnight, areas of fog will develop. This will result in MVFR
visibilities after 15.09z.

As the winds decouple in the Mississippi River Valley early this
evening, low level wind shear will develop at KLSE. This will
continue through the evening and then as the winds decrease aloft
during the overnight, these conditions will come to an end.

On late Thursday morning and afternoon, a cold front will move
southeast through the region. In the wake of this front, ceilings
will quickly become MVFR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boyne
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Boyne



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