Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 221738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Latest 07z surface analysis shows high pressure from Minnesota/Wisconsin
to the Central Plain States. This is providing mostly clear skies
across the forecast area per latest infrared satellite imagery.

Main forecast concerns are temperatures today across the forecast
area and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms over the
extreme western parts of the forecast area. The 22.00z GFS/NAM
are in good agreement in building surface ridge into Michigan and
the Ohio River Valley today. This will provide another dry weather
day across the forecast area with high temperatures rising to
around 80 to lower 80s.

Tonight...First piece of energy embedded in southwesterly flow aloft
moves into western Minnesota after 06z Monday. Main moisture
transport/convergence and lift axis in association with piece of
energy remains west of the forecast area. This would allow the
forecast area to be dry tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Increasing moisture transport/convergence and vertical motion occurs
over the forecast area late Monday afternoon into Monday
a stronger shortwave trough moves into western Wisconsin. the 22.00z
GFS/ECMWF/NAM continue to indicate the better moisture convergence
and associated lift will be across the far northern/southern
sections of the forecast area Monday night. Will continue to focus
the higher chances of showers/thunderstorms over these areas.

The 22.00z GFS/NAM continue to show 20-25 knots of 0-3km shear with
0-6km most unstable CAPE up to 1000 j/kg over the forecast area
late Monday afternoon and Monday night. At this not
anticipate any severe thunderstorms across the forecast area.
However...some of the thunderstorms could be strong with gusty
winds and hail.

The 22.00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF indicate surface front weakens or washes
out over Minnesota Tuesday morning. However...the models show weak
moisture convergence along surface front. The possibility of showers
and thunderstorms exist across much of the forecast area...mainly
Tuesday morning. For now...have mentioned chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the entire day...due to the possibility of
lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms along weak surface
front into the afternoon.

Main forecast concerns are precipitation chances Tuesday night
into the 22.00z GFS/ECMWF/GEM continue to suggest an
active weather pattern across the central United States. The
biggest difference between the 22.00z GFS/ECMWF/GEM is timing of
each impulse embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft tracking
into the Great Lakes Region through the period. Showers and
thunderstorms will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
across much of the forecast the 22.00z models show
decent shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest region. With
the timing differences of the shortwave troughs to move over the
forecast area Thursday into the start of next weekend...will
continue with chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions continue through the night as upper level high
pressure folds across the region, all while showers and
thunderstorms develop out across the Plains into the afternoon and
evening. Some cirrus from that convection may drift across the
area tonight into Monday, but overall it appears that showers and
storms will be on a weakening trend as they approach through the
morning hours of Monday. Will introduce a vicinity mention at KRST
as some showers may roll east toward that site through the
morning, but there appears to be a slightly better risk for some
showers and storms after the current TAF period ends at 18Z. Winds
will continue to shift southerly and remain gusty at KRST through
sunset, becoming gusty everywhere later Monday morning with gusts
up to 25 knots expected.


.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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