Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 261915
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
215 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Forecast area enjoying a pleasant spring day after a fairly stormy
past 12-24 hours. Drier/subsident/mostly sunny conditions in place
this afternoon in the wake of the convective complex that exited the
area this morning. Temperatures as of 2 pm were in the 70s to the
lower 80s with dew points in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.

For tonight through Friday night...will be seeing a closed low over
the 4-corners region slowly open and move east into Central Plains.
Deepening/moist southerly flow into the area with embedded weak
troughs expected to result in a general increase in
shower/thunderstorm activity. Mesoscale Convective Allowing Models
showing showers/storms over the Plains through this evening...then
moving this activity northward in a weakening mode...spreading from
south to north across the area late tonight/toward daybreak and then
continuing through the day Friday and into Friday night. CAPE and
Bulk Shear not all that impressive. This...and lack of a good
trigger to fire stronger/deeper convection..looks to limit severe
potential.

Otherwise...look for highs Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
dew points increasing into the low/middle 60s for a rather humid day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

For Saturday through Sunday...that trough over the Plains continues
to lift across the Upper Mississippi River Valley for the likelihood
of showers/thunderstorms...at least through Saturday night.
Temperature-wise...look for highs Saturday and Sunday in the middle
70s to the lower 80s.

For Monday through Thursday...Shower/thunderstorm chances continue
through the period...highest chances centered Tuesday into Wednesday
as a fairly vigorous low/cold front rolls across the Northern Plains
into the Upper Mississippi River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Primary challenge will be convective chances/timing through the
period given messy environmental set-up. Appears the next best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will hold off until sometime
after 27.06Z, but even then confidence of occurrence at KRST or
KLSE is rather low. Will carry VCTS beginning at 27.08Z at KRST
and 27.10Z at KLSE and allow later forecasts to introduce additional
detail once convection develops. VFR conditions will be the rule
unless a thunderstorm passes overhead, in which MVFR or even brief
IFR conditions are possible. Light southwesterly wind this
afternoon will turn to the south-southeast overnight and continue
through Friday morning.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS


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