Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 051733
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS TODAY.
THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND USHER IN A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR FRIDAY.
WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON
FRIDAY...THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WE COULD EVEN
SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 40 NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING THROUGH THAT MAY
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS TRENDING A
LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE STRONGER SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE CANADIAN TAKES THE BAND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON SEEING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THESE GIVEN THE
DIFFERING FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS.

WE FINALLY GET OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
MILD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE COULD
EVEN SEE A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES FORECAST WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAMS ALONG SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DRY CAN/ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THRU TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...EVEN AS IT
RETREATS AND WARMER AIR START TO RETURN TO MN/IA/WI. DIURNAL
WARMING/ STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO RESULT IN FEW STRATO-CU
THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 24HRS IS THE CHANGE/INCREASE OF WIND AS THE
HIGH RETREATS AND A TROUGH/WARM FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS AROUND 40KT ON TOP THE INVERSION NEAR 2K FT AGL LATE TONIGHT/
EARLY FRI...AND ADDED LLWS TO BOTH KRST/KLSE TAFS IN THE 09Z TO 14-
15Z TIMEFRAME WITH AN EXPECTED DIRECTION CHANGE OF AS MUCH AS 60
DEGREES. GRADIENTS RELAX WITH APPROACH OF THE FRONT/TROUGH FOR LATER
FRI MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RRS



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