Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 280827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
326 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Water vapor satellite imagery/RAP 500mb analysis shows a closed low
centered near Green Bay WI. Spoke of pv-advection that produced
scattered showers across the area through the evening hours
currently slipping southeast along the WI/IL border with ample low
cloud in its wake across our area. Temperatures as of 2 am were in
the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

The closed low will sink south toward Indiana today with deep/cool
cyclonic flow continuing across our region. Model soundings showing
steepening lapse rates with daytime heating. This is expected to pop
a few showers/sprinkles. Otherwise...another cooler than normal day
on tap with highs topping off in the lower 60s.

Closed low continues to sink southward into the Ohio River Valley
Thursday into Thursday night which will allow default ridging across
our region for clearing skies. Plan on highs Thursday in the 65-70
degree range with lows Thursday night 45-50.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Latest GFS/ECMWF in good agreement on lifting the closed low back
north into the lower MI through the weekend, bringing with it
cyclonic flow and threat for showers/sprinkles back into our
region...especially on Saturday.

Looks like a brief nice break Monday as a ridge of high pressure
drifts across the area. Plan on highs in the middle 60s to the lower

Eastern fringe of 850mb moisture transport/isentropic lift ahead of
Northern Plains low pressure will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms into the area. Otherwise, looks a tad warmer with
highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 951 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Showers are exiting the area but lower stratus is quickly
following, expected to overtake LSE/RST the next couple of hours.
Overall MVFR to higher end IFR ceilings are expected (lowest for
RST), with stratus slowly mixing up into more of a broken cumulus
cloud deck into the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Winds will also
become a bit gusty from the north Wednesday afternoon, with gusts
of 20-25 knots expected, highest for RST.




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